National and State Renewable Energy stats

[rowdy]

Taking out rooftop solar, total grid consumption continues to fall. In 2023 it was 184.406 TWh, 1.8% less than in 2022, and a whopping 11.1% less than the peak grid consumption in 2008. This is all due to rooftop solar displacing grid demand.

That's quite amazing. All these people worried about EVs crashing the grid and yet consumption continues to drop. I guess most EV owners are getting solar to go with their car. Free fuel is such a drawcard.

Thanks for all your hard work compiling these stats Vostok!

 

[Max Spaghetti]

Wait until they persuade everyone that coal-fired electricity is better than natural gas.

My chemistry lessons teach me otherwise.

 

[Vostok]

That's quite amazing. All these people worried about EVs crashing the grid and yet consumption continues to drop. I guess most EV owners are getting solar to go with their car. Free fuel is such a drawcard.

Thanks for your kind words . EVs are not going to crash the grid any time soon, if ever, and V2G will likely save it, should it ever reach scale. All EVs will do is replace some of the disappearing grid demand, and mostly at night when there is already > 10 GW of grid headroom. During the day, EVs will play a growing role in soaking up excess solar.

If every light vehicle in Australia was battery electric, total national electricity consumption would increase by about 20%, or put us about 10% above 2008’s peak if all that came from the grid. But considering how many decades it will take to reach that point, the rate at which grid supply is increasing (about 3-4% p.a.), and that 60% of households still don’t have solar, then you can see there won’t be problem.

Full electrification (every residence and business getting off the gas) would increase grid demand but that will take a very long time too.

 

[paulp]

Thanks for your kind words . EVs are not going to crash the grid any time soon, if ever, and V2G will likely save it, should it ever reach scale. All EVs will do is replace some of the disappearing grid demand, and mostly at night when there is already > 10 GW of grid headroom. During the day, EVs will play a growing role in soaking up excess solar.

If every light vehicle in Australia was battery electric, total national electricity consumption would increase by about 20%, or put us about 10% above 2008’s peak if all that came from the grid. But considering how many decades it will take to reach that point, the rate at which grid supply is increasing (about 3-4% p.a.), and that 60% of households still don’t have solar, then you can see there won’t be problem.

Full electrification (every residence and business getting off the gas) would increase grid demand but that will take a very long time too.

The issue in SA is not so much the lack of potential for renewables, rather it is the archaic infrastructure that cannot transmit the power to where it needs to go from the solar and wind farms. Even once that is resolved the localised transformers and switchgear are so undersized that additional power demands are going to cause a meltdown. We regularly receive threats of summer blackouts from the operator due to grid stresses

 

[johnchidgey]

The issue in SA is not so much the lack of potential for renewables, rather it is the archaic infrastructure that cannot transmit the power to where it needs to go from the solar and wind farms. Even once that is resolved the localised transformers and switchgear are so undersized that additional power demands are going to cause a meltdown. We regularly receive threats of summer blackouts from the operator due to grid stresses

I'm not disputing the infrastructure can be considered to be archaic, however in fairness it was fit for purpose when it was designed, from baseload to end user points of supply. With the tables turned and not enough controls to disconnect or store the power pushed back into the grid from all the renewables, it's no longer fit for purpose. (How completely unsurprising)

The issue that's been building for a while now is who pays to re-engineer the grid? That cost, then the poles and wires all cost money to maintain as well and the paltry grid-connection fees would need to go up considerably to cover this expense. In the rush to get as much renewable installed as possible, not enough attention has been given to the grid redesign required to support it properly.

It's not technically difficult to fix it if I'm honest, nor would it be an insurmountable expense, but it's also not 5 minutes worth of work. South Australia is further along this renewable timeline than the other states. I sincerely hope the other states have been paying attention and plan better. (Not holding my breath though)

 

[paulp]

I'm not disputing the infrastructure can be considered to be archaic, however in fairness it was fit for purpose when it was designed, from baseload to end user points of supply. With the tables turned and not enough controls to disconnect or store the power pushed back into the grid from all the renewables, it's no longer fit for purpose. (How completely unsurprising)

The issue that's been building for a while now is who pays to re-engineer the grid? That cost, then the poles and wires all cost money to maintain as well and the paltry grid-connection fees would need to go up considerably to cover this expense. In the rush to get as much renewable installed as possible, not enough attention has been given to the grid redesign required to support it properly.

It's not technically difficult to fix it if I'm honest, nor would it be an insurmountable expense, but it's also not 5 minutes worth of work. South Australia is further along this renewable timeline than the other states. I sincerely hope the other states have been paying attention and plan better. (Not holding my breath though)

The cost of non residential connections in SA is not paltry. It includes a substantial sum that covers ‘grid upgrade’ although there is no evidence such is occuring. A connection in say the cbd with the smallest transformer is going to have a fee attached exceeding $100k, a large transformer for a supercharger will be massively more. It is likely why SA is so short on superchargers.

 

[Aryll]

AEMO just released its latest Quarterly Energy Dynamics report, covering Q4 2023.
Here are a few of the graphs that stood out to me (all of these relate only to the NEM - they don't include WA):

All the quarters featured show year-over-year increases in potential generation that is not sent to the grid.

The full document contains a whole lot more graphs and analysis.

 

[Vostok]

All the quarters featured show year-over-year increases in potential generation that is not sent to the grid.

View attachment 1012620

The full document contains a whole lot more graphs and analysis.

It’s an indictment that curtailment is as high as 27% at peak renewable generation, due to the presence of those inflexible coal clunkers in the network. All that VRE potential going unused.

I also note minimum operational demand fell to zero in SA in 2023 . “We’re good, AEMO, no need for your generators”.

 

[Quickst]

SA is a minnow with maybe 5% of total AEMO demand.

 

[dronus]

I just read every page and post of this thread. I have learned so much, thank you all for your contributions.

 

[Vostok]

SA is a minnow with maybe 5% of total AEMO demand.

So what? It doesn’t make their 71% renewables in 2023 purely on VRE any less impressive.

 

[cafz]

It’s an indictment that curtailment is as high as 27% at peak renewable generation, due to the presence of those inflexible coal clunkers in the network.

It's not all economic curtailment due to inflexible thermal generation underbidding - the VRE also gets curtailed due to transmission and system strength constraints.

 

[Vostok]

The stats for January. Below 40% again. I’m sure all the persistent east-coast cloud coverage did not help.

Renewable energy generation for January - average for the month:

• National - 39.2%
• TAS - 98.0%
• SA - 85.1%
• VIC - 39.4%
• WA - 37.9%
• NSW - 36.5%
• QLD - 27.3%

Peak renewable generation for January - and time of occurrence:

• National - 65.7% on 05 Jan 13:15
• TAS - 100.0% on 02 Jan 14:45
• SA - 98.3% on 02 Jan 14:15
• WA - 74.2% on 24 Jan 15:30
• NSW - 71.4% on 06 Jan 12:30
• VIC - 69.9% on 02 Jan 13:00
• QLD - 58.9% on 14 Jan 12:30

Daytime renewable performance for January - renewable percentage when solar production is not zero:

• National - 44.4%
• TAS - 98.0%
• SA - 87.9%
• WA - 46.2%
• VIC - 45.6%
• NSW - 44.7%
• QLD - 36.4%

Nighttime renewable performance for January - renewable percentage when solar production is zero:

• National - 23.1%
• TAS - 98.1%
• SA - 77.5%
• VIC - 27.1%
• WA - 22.0%
• NSW - 17.5%
• QLD - 8.0%

Diurnal renewable hardness for January - ratio of nighttime renewable percentage to daytime:

• National - 0.52
• TAS - 1.0
• SA - 0.88
• VIC - 0.59
• WA - 0.48
• NSW - 0.39
• QLD - 0.22

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for January - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 14.2%
• SA - 29.8%
• WA - 22.2%
• VIC - 13.4%
• NSW - 12.4%
• QLD - 11.7%
• TAS - 7.0%

Renewable mix for January - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 31.8%, Solar: 56.9%, Hydro: 11.3%
• NSW - Wind: 24.5%, Solar: 66.9%, Hydro: 8.6%
• QLD - Wind: 12.7%, Solar: 80.7%, Hydro: 6.7%
• SA - Wind: 54.1%, Solar: 45.9%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 24.2%, Solar: 7.1%, Hydro: 68.7%
• VIC - Wind: 45.8%, Solar: 44.7%, Hydro: 9.5%
• WA - Wind: 41.4%, Solar: 58.6%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for January - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 90 minutes across 3 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

 

[paulp]

The last month has been very strong for solar in Adelaide. I’ve never produced so much power. I think it is being caused by the moderate temperature slightly breezy cloudless days.

 

[dronus]

The last month has been very strong for solar in Adelaide. I’ve never produced so much power. I think it is being caused by the moderate temperature slightly breezy cloudless days.

Only a couple of days of rain to wash the panels too

 

[Vostok]

The stats for Feb. The seasonal decline in renewables begins as solar production reduces, but still in the high 30s nationally.

Renewable energy generation for February - average for the month:

• National - 38.4%
• TAS - 99.4%
• SA - 82.4%
• VIC - 39.8%
• NSW - 35.4%
• WA - 33.3%
• QLD - 26.7%

Peak renewable generation for February - and time of occurrence:

• National - 63.7% on 04 Feb 13:15
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 98.1% on 02 Feb 16:15
• NSW - 73.2% on 10 Feb 12:30
• WA - 72.4% on 05 Feb 16:00
• VIC - 68.0% on 13 Feb 13:30
• QLD - 59.7% on 11 Feb 12:15

Daytime renewable performance for February - renewable percentage when solar production is not zero:

• National - 44.0%
• TAS - 99.2%
• SA - 85.9%
• VIC - 47.3%
• NSW - 44.3%
• WA - 39.7%
• QLD - 36.7%

Nighttime renewable performance for February - renewable percentage when solar production is zero:

• National - 22.9%
• TAS - 99.7%
• SA - 74.6%
• VIC - 26.7%
• WA - 22.3%
• NSW - 17.0%
• QLD - 7.3%

Diurnal renewable hardness for February - ratio of nighttime renewable percentage to daytime:

• National - 0.52
• TAS - 1.01
• SA - 0.87
• VIC - 0.56
• WA - 0.56
• NSW - 0.38
• QLD - 0.2

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for February - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 13.8%
• SA - 29.3%
• WA - 18.4%
• VIC - 13.5%
• QLD - 12.2%
• NSW - 11.9%
• TAS - 6.6%

Renewable mix for February - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 30.1%, Solar: 56.6%, Hydro: 13.3%
• NSW - Wind: 23.0%, Solar: 67.1%, Hydro: 9.8%
• QLD - Wind: 10.8%, Solar: 82.2%, Hydro: 7.0%
• SA - Wind: 52.9%, Solar: 47.1%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 20.0%, Solar: 6.7%, Hydro: 73.3%
• VIC - Wind: 42.1%, Solar: 45.3%, Hydro: 12.6%
• WA - Wind: 44.8%, Solar: 55.2%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for February - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 60 minutes across 2 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

 

[dronus]

The stats for Feb. The seasonal decline in renewables begins as solar production reduces, but still in the high 30s nationally.

Renewable energy generation for February - average for the month:

• National - 38.4%
• TAS - 99.4%
• SA - 82.4%
• VIC - 39.8%
• NSW - 35.4%
• WA - 33.3%
• QLD - 26.7%

Peak renewable generation for February - and time of occurrence:

• National - 63.7% on 04 Feb 13:15
• TAS - 100.0% on many occasions
• SA - 98.1% on 02 Feb 16:15
• NSW - 73.2% on 10 Feb 12:30
• WA - 72.4% on 05 Feb 16:00
• VIC - 68.0% on 13 Feb 13:30
• QLD - 59.7% on 11 Feb 12:15

Daytime renewable performance for February - renewable percentage when solar production is not zero:

• National - 44.0%
• TAS - 99.2%
• SA - 85.9%
• VIC - 47.3%
• NSW - 44.3%
• WA - 39.7%
• QLD - 36.7%

Nighttime renewable performance for February - renewable percentage when solar production is zero:

• National - 22.9%
• TAS - 99.7%
• SA - 74.6%
• VIC - 26.7%
• WA - 22.3%
• NSW - 17.0%
• QLD - 7.3%

Diurnal renewable hardness for February - ratio of nighttime renewable percentage to daytime:

• National - 0.52
• TAS - 1.01
• SA - 0.87
• VIC - 0.56
• WA - 0.56
• NSW - 0.38
• QLD - 0.2

Small Scale / Rooftop solar as a proportion of all generation for February - invisible to AEMO:

• National - 13.8%
• SA - 29.3%
• WA - 18.4%
• VIC - 13.5%
• QLD - 12.2%
• NSW - 11.9%
• TAS - 6.6%

Renewable mix for February - solar includes small-scale solar, hydro includes pumped hydro:

• National - Wind: 30.1%, Solar: 56.6%, Hydro: 13.3%
• NSW - Wind: 23.0%, Solar: 67.1%, Hydro: 9.8%
• QLD - Wind: 10.8%, Solar: 82.2%, Hydro: 7.0%
• SA - Wind: 52.9%, Solar: 47.1%, Hydro: 0.0%
• TAS - Wind: 20.0%, Solar: 6.7%, Hydro: 73.3%
• VIC - Wind: 42.1%, Solar: 45.3%, Hydro: 12.6%
• WA - Wind: 44.8%, Solar: 55.2%, Hydro: 0.0%

SNSWNB Index for February - sun not shining wind not blowing index: total duration in minutes spread across N separate periods:

• National - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• NSW - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• QLD - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• SA - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• TAS - 60 minutes across 2 periods
• VIC - 0 minutes across 0 periods
• WA - 0 minutes across 0 periods

Very interesting. Thank you for this update!

Also the correlation between the high amount of small rooftop solar generation and high wholesale prices in SA is intriguing.
Its becoming more and more apparent that as prices keep going up, more people turn to alternates, which keeps the prices going up. Lets see what SAPN annual profit says.

I was out in the Northern Suburbs this week and was amazed at how many large solar installations and Tesla batteries were fitted to Housing Trust houses. Im guessing the SAGOV has paid for this somehow and for some reason. It was pretty amazing to see... I guess both both ends of the financial spectrum are now protected from the high costs, just leaving the working middle class to keep funding the shareholders..

If you cant beat 'em, join 'em im planning a solar battery install to take me basically off the grid. I dont need much, and the power utilities will be getting $0.

 

[Jules22]

If you cant beat 'em, join 'em im planning a solar battery install to take me basically off the grid. I dont need much, and the power utilities will be getting $0.

Good move. Just scored another $113 profit in a couple of hours last night dumping 20kw at an average of $5 something per kW!

Bought it all back from them a few hours later for $2 lol

 

[Vostok]

If you cant beat 'em, join 'em im planning a solar battery install to take me basically off the grid. I dont need much, and the power utilities will be getting $0.

For an individual house to truly go off-grid (i.e. have the grid wires permanently disconnected from their house) is very difficult and expensive to achieve. You’d need a mix of these things:

1. A large solar array that generates considerably more each year than annual household consumption (my array only generates about 55% of my consumption over a year - so it’s impossible for me to ever go off-grid since I have no roofspace left for more panels)
2. A very large battery, if not an infeasibly large one which will never pay itself back
3. A willingness and acceptance for your house to “go dark” some percentage of the time because 100% uptime is not statistically realistic at feasible cost.

 

[cafz]

A willingness and acceptance for your house to “go dark” some percentage of the time because 100% uptime is not statistically realistic at feasible cost.

Not that I'm advocating for anyone to go off-grid, but it should be kept in mind that even those grid-connected have to expect blackouts some percentage of the time, for similar reasons.