Russia/Ukraine conflict

[SwedishAdvocate]

It's really not politics, although that answer is often given by Russians wanting to pretend nothing is going to affect them and they can't do anything about it anyway. It's all about your deranged leader wanting to go back in time and grab all the land and resources he thinks should be his and destroy anything non-Russian in order to make him more powerful and rich.

There's enough evidence to show what actually went on there between 2014-2022 if you look hard enough but it seems you're content to go with the flow and believe the future will be bright and properous. Your talent will ultimately be wasted like so many other intelligent young men in your country, which is a shame but if you don't wake up and stand against the evil and destruction your leader promotes, you won't have a future in Russia, because Russia itself won't have a future.

I agree with everything except for the first underlined part. How is this not about politics?...

There's this rather famous quote by some von Clausewitz dude: “war is a continuation of politics by other means”.

THE GRAND STRATEGY OF CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ

WAR ROOM welcomes Francis Miyata to demonstrate that Clausewitz provides an implicit definition of grand strategy in his magnum opus, On War. Francis argues that the definition is found not in his theory of war but extrapolated from his theory of the state, which is the bearer of multiple means...

warroom.armywarcollege.edu

Or we can take a look at Wikipedia:

Politics (from Ancient Greek πολιτικά (politiká) 'affairs of the cities') is the set of activities that are associated with making decisions in groups, or other forms of power relations among individuals, such as the distribution of resources or status. [...

Politics - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The Russian Dictator's illegal War against Ukraine is of course about politics. And further still: Everything is politics.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Yes, of course. It was my slightly tongue in cheek way of dealing with what is a very common reply from Russians who don't want to think about the reasons and consequences of the war. It also means they can get away with saying they don't vote anyone into power so you can't blame them for what happens next.

As you say in your final sentence, if you look at the definitions, almost anything that happens in the human world could be said to be politics.
Our Russian friend doesn't follow or understand politics but he posts about the war and argues about who's to blame.
It's hypocrisy really.

Maybe one day all these apolitical Russians will realise they've got a responsibility?

 

[navguy12]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791530016670421497

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Paywalled. As I understand it, the article is about some new(?) form of electronic warfare aimed at the Starlink system used by Ukraine in the Kharkiv region right before the Russian Dictator's minions attacked in that region again recently. Allegedly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

How many F-16s does Ukraine need?

To achieve air parity with Russia, Kyiv requires 120-130 modern aircraft, stated Zelenskyy.

Russia is using about 300 jets against Ukraine, comprising both domestically produced and Soviet-era models.

x.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1791846255347249196

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791846255347249196

 

[iPlug]

If this is confirmed and these figures are even half correct, awesome defensive withdrawal maneuver for Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791859630760477142

 

[Tiger]

If this is confirmed and these figures are even half correct, awesome defensive withdrawal maneuver for Ukraine:

They should mine everything that would attract enemy forces to it upon retreat with remote ignition.

 

[madodel]

Looks like Ukraine has found some success with killing turtle tanks.

 

[wdolson]

I agree with everything except for the first underlined part. How is this not about politics?...

There's this rather famous quote by some von Clausewitz dude: “war is a continuation of politics by other means”.

THE GRAND STRATEGY OF CARL VON CLAUSEWITZ

WAR ROOM welcomes Francis Miyata to demonstrate that Clausewitz provides an implicit definition of grand strategy in his magnum opus, On War. Francis argues that the definition is found not in his theory of war but extrapolated from his theory of the state, which is the bearer of multiple means...

warroom.armywarcollege.edu

Or we can take a look at Wikipedia:


The Russian Dictator's illegal War against Ukraine is of course about politics. And further still: Everything is politics.

A Psychologist named David McClelland came up with a theory of human motivation some years ago. The theory is that at its heart humans are motivated by only three things: Affiliation, Achievement, and Power. Virtually everyone has one of these that dominates.

From the site below

Achievement	Has a strong need to set and accomplish challenging goals. Takes calculated risks to accomplish their goals. Likes to receive regular feedback on their progress and achievements. Often likes to work alone.
Affiliation	Wants to belong to the group. Wants to be liked, and will often go along with whatever the rest of the group wants to do. Favors collaboration over competition. Doesn't like high risk or uncertainty.
Power	Wants to control and influence others. Likes to win arguments. Enjoys competition and winning. Enjoys status and recognition.

MindTools | Home

Politics is driven by Power people and whenever Power people get involved in something, politics comes into it. I'm mostly Achievement oriented than anything else and I have left groups that became too political. What we recognize as politics is dominated by Power oriented people. The top leaders in military organizations tend to be Power motivated too.

 

[CatB]

Paywalled. As I understand it, the article is about some new(?) form of electronic warfare aimed at the Starlink system used by Ukraine in the Kharkiv region right before the Russian Dictator's minions attacked in that region again recently. Allegedly:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/

Hope this works: https://wapo.st/3K6M0Rz

And your understanding is correct:

"“This was the biggest problem, we didn’t see how they were moving, we only worked through radio or through phones where they still worked,” Artist, a 53-year-old sergeant, said. The drone feeds, he said, “simply disappeared.”

Within days, the Russians had captured — for the second time — some 50 square miles of territory along the border, capitalizing on a moment of particular vulnerability for Ukraine’s military."

Also, sounds like RU has upped their electronic warfare game. Their drones would monitor UK building defenses and direct fire back at them. Hard to build defenses in heavy soil without the right mechanized equipment (which would have been destroyed).

 

[Bouba]

Originally I think most thought that technology would do away with the fighting man and robot vs robot future would emerge....and while that has been witnessed a few times...the reality appears that because machines are no longer safe or effective....it’s now returned to man against man....and the front will progress at the speed of a walking man who will stop to dig foxholes regularly

 

[wdolson]

Originally I think most thought that technology would do away with the fighting man and robot vs robot future would emerge....and while that has been witnessed a few times...the reality appears that because machines are no longer safe or effective....it’s now returned to man against man....and the front will progress at the speed of a walking man who will stop to dig foxholes regularly

In almost 10,000 years of human conflict (certainly going back before recorded history), nobody has found a substitute for infantry no matter how advanced the tech gets.

Ultimately war is about one side's boots on a given patch of ground. Until that happens, the land is in dispute. Control of the air and sea help, but it always comes down to capturing and holding land.

I don't see robots replacing infantry at any point in the near future. No matter how sophisticated the machines, someone figures out how to counter the new machines eventually. A robot that runs out of power is just a war prize for the enemy.

History is filled with stories of sieges holding out for long periods of time. Leningrad held out against the Germans for three years from 1941-1944. The starvation in Leningrad was horrible, but humans can hold out in conditions that would see a machine brick up for lack of power.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

We discussed "double tap" strikes a few pages ago.
Another typical Russian one happened this morning. Nothing strategic or military, just a holiday camp.

https://www.itv.com/news/2024-05-19/at-least-five-people-killed-in-airstrike-on-ukrainian-holiday-camp

 

[navguy12]

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

UKR has allegedly sunk one more ship in the Russian Dictator's Black Sea fleet. This time a 219 ft long corvette.

Russian channels report that today an ATACMS missile attack was reportedly carried out on Project 22800 Karakurt class “Tsiklon” in the port of Sevastopol.

As a result of the strike, the ship reportedly sunk and 6 servicemen were killed and 11 more were injured.

x.com/NOELreports/status/1792229142970118274

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792229142970118274

 

[madodel]

Russia's propaganda network, Tass has signed an agreement with China's government controlled propaganda network Xinhua to continue to work together. Be ready for an onslaught of fake news everywhere, now with twice the flat out lies.

Edit: just noticed this was an image clip in @navguy12 's post about the Ruzzian ship being commissioned a submarine.

Russia's Vladimir Putin meets 'old friend' Xi Jinping of China. What happened next? Deals, concert and tea ceremony

 

[madodel]

Speaking of propaganda here's a pro-Russian Youtube channel that even calls the invasion the "Special Military Operation zone" and praises the valiant Russian murderers.

 

[navguy12]

Within the fine print:

I wonder what Poland would have to say about becoming part of a Russian “sanitary zone”? /s

 

[iPlug]

Glide bombs were supposed to be a "game changer" for Ukraine with reports of them getting Ukraine spun up with lots of these much earlier in the war, instead:

Russia is increasingly using "glide bombs" - cheap but highly destructive ordnance - to advance its offensive in Ukraine.​

​

More than 200 of them are thought to have been used in just a week to pound Ukraine’s northern town of Vovchansk during Russia’s current cross-border advance near Kharkiv.​

As the article points out, they can be produced at such low cost and high quantity that wasting air defenses on Russian glide bombs is not practical.

One of the few realistic answers are related to "shooting the archer". A few months ago Ukraine was effectively using Patriots on front lines to shoot down those fighter/bombers, but with putting those expensive launcher components at risk which they may have lost two. Another is using long-range missiles or drones to target Russian air bases and this has been working quite well in recent days.

Another option is the original one - get those F-16s up in the air finally and payback with the same glide bombs they were supposed to have long ago. The U.S. has extensive reserves of old dumb heavy bombs that can be cheaply converted.


Ukraine war: Russia's lethal glide bombs hitting Ukraine's cities

 

[wdolson]

Glide bombs were supposed to be a "game changer" for Ukraine with reports of them getting Ukraine spun up with lots of these much earlier in the war, instead:

Russia is increasingly using "glide bombs" - cheap but highly destructive ordnance - to advance its offensive in Ukraine.​

​

More than 200 of them are thought to have been used in just a week to pound Ukraine’s northern town of Vovchansk during Russia’s current cross-border advance near Kharkiv.​

As the article points out, they can be produced at such low cost and high quantity that wasting air defenses on Russian glide bombs is not practical.

One of the few realistic answers are related to "shooting the archer". A few months ago Ukraine was effectively using Patriots on front lines to shoot down those fighter/bombers, but with putting those expensive launcher components at risk which they may have lost two. Another is using long-range missiles or drones to target Russian air bases and this has been working quite well in recent days.

Another option is the original one - get those F-16s up in the air finally and payback with the same glide bombs they were supposed to have long ago. The U.S. has extensive reserves of old dumb heavy bombs that can be cheaply converted.


Ukraine war: Russia's lethal glide bombs hitting Ukraine's cities

The US has converted most of the inventory of dumb bombs with the strap on kits. F-16s are going to have to operate in the same conditions all other aircraft are operating in. The entire region is saturated with air defense systems. The F-16 is an air superiority fighter, but it will not be able to operate in its normal role because of all the air defense systems.

Hopefully the US will be providing lots of AGM-88s when the F-16s arrive. The first mission will have to be degrading the Russian AD network to a point where F-16s can operate safely.