Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[raffiniert]

Everyone... I must say that I also fear the coming months / years. Not TSLA in special, but markets in general. I have half of my wealth managed by a private bank in Switzerland, where it is heavily diviersified across stocks, options, real estate and so on. And the rest is in TSLA.
Of course if I fear enough, I could sell. But then what? I don't need the money and the banks charge me negative margins.

Actually, if I could have my money in a perfectly safe environment for the next 5 years with 3-4% yearly gains, I would probably do it. PMs welcome for those that do not like to disclose publicly what they think.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

\

Interior trim!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491522859616903168

I wonder if they consider discontinuing the X given the relatively low volume and manufacturing complexity, then using that factory space for Y, 3, or S

 

[CHGolferJim]

Everyone... I must say that I also fear the coming months / years. Not TSLA in special, but markets in general. I have half of my wealth managed by a private bank in Switzerland, where it is heavily diviersified across stocks, options, real estate and so on. And the rest is in TSLA.
Of course if I fear enough, I could sell. But then what? I don't need the money and the banks charge me negative margins.

Actually, if I could have my money in a perfectly safe environment for the next 5 years with 3-4% yearly gains, I would probably do it. PMs welcome for those that do not like to disclose publicly what they think.

More or less what I'm doing with a private bank in Arkansas, lol.

 

[thx1139]

Interior trim!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1491522859616903168

Damn what about the interior trim makes it such a pain

 

[15Peter20]

More or less what I'm doing with a private bank in Arkansas, lol.

I have half my wealth in a biscuit tin under the bed. And the other half is stuffed in the mattress.

 

[thesmokingman]

Damn what about the interior trim makes it such a pain

Probably in relation to the falcon doors.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Everyone... I must say that I also fear the coming months / years. Not TSLA in special, but markets in general. I have half of my wealth managed by a private bank in Switzerland, where it is heavily diviersified across stocks, options, real estate and so on. And the rest is in TSLA.
Of course if I fear enough, I could sell. But then what? I don't need the money and the banks charge me negative margins.

Actually, if I could have my money in a perfectly safe environment for the next 5 years with 3-4% yearly gains, I would probably do it. PMs welcome for those that do not like to disclose publicly what they think.

If you're making a post like this, you really need to add substance to why you have these "fears". And really, that substance needs to have actual data behind it. Otherwise this type of post is fear mongering.

There's some other posters here that believe a recession is likely this year but they actually post their reason and actually give data. While I may not agree with their reasoning and/or disagree with the data they're using or how they're interpreting it....at least their posts have substance.

 

[thx1139]

Probably in relation to the falcon doors.

Is the refreshed version that different from the previous version?

 

[raffiniert]

If you're making a post like this, you really need to add substance to why you have these "fears". And really, that substance needs to have actual data behind it. Otherwise this type of post is fear mongering.

There's some other posters here that believe a recession is likely this year but they actually post their reason and actually give data. While I may not agree with their reasoning and/or disagree with the data they're using or how they're interpreting it....at least their posts have substance.

I know my post didn't and I apologize for this.
Basically, it is everyone talking about it that freaks the hell out of me. And yes, I also start talking about it and I see the problem in that.

So tbh, I cannot add substance to it. It's not my expertise, I only hold TSLA privately and that is because I am convinced of the company. I am not so much convinced of the macros though, and they might/will probably influence TSLA as well.

Don't be too hard with me, I basically look for sme. cheering me up and convincing me not to do something stupid

 

[thx1139]

I know my post didn't and I apologize for this.
Basically, it is everyone talking about it that freaks the hell out of me. And yes, I also start talking about it and I see the problem in that.

So tbh, I cannot add substance to it. It's not my expertise, I only hold TSLA privately and that is because I am convinced of the company. I am not so much convinced of the macros though, and they might/will probably influence TSLA as well.

Don't be too hard with me, I basically look for sme. cheering me up and convincing me not to do something stupid

Recessions happen. If you are young enough to hold (I am still and I am 55) then just ride through it. Biggest mistakes I ever made in investing was getting out of companies I was convinced of. Selling then getting back in then selling and getting back in. Have lost more from that then anything else.

 

[Artful Dodger]

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I wonder if they consider discontinuing the X given the relatively low volume and manufacturing complexity, then using that factory space for Y, 3, or S

Lol, Elon said "interior trim", not "interior space".

Cheers!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I know my post didn't and I apologize for this.
Basically, it is everyone talking about it that freaks the hell out of me. And yes, I also start talking about it and I see the problem in that.

So tbh, I cannot add substance to it. It's not my expertise, I only hold TSLA privately and that is because I am convinced of the company. I am not so much convinced of the macros though, and they might/will probably influence TSLA as well.

Don't be too hard with me, I basically look for sme. cheering me up and convincing me not to do something stupid

Honestly, it would probably be best if you researched the dynamics of what's happening in the market and economy right now on your own. If you're worried about inflation, research and track the cost of goods/commodities, look into the dynamics of the housing markets, monitor things like household debt and discretionary spending, etc so that you can think make assumptions on your own about where inflation is headed and how impactful it will be this year on the economy. Oil prices on the surface can look scary unless you're investing in the sector where high oil/gas prices drive demand.

If you're worried about Fed rate hikes, do the research and math to understand just how high interest rates would have to get in order to justify discounting future earnings by 15-20%. Interest rates would need to be well above 3% just to justify the lows the market hit in the correction last month. Understand that the stock market has done just fine in periods of much higher interest rates

If you're worried about the market being a bubble, research earnings across the economy, look into historical trends of the market multiples and then you can compare those to actual market bubbles like the dot.com bubble and crash. By looking into historical trends, you can say, even if the market is overvalued today, it will take X number of quarters of earnings growth trend to then flip the market to undervalued.

Just looking at the historical trends of the P/E of the S&P S&P 500 PE Ratio by Month , you can see even while the macro's were going higher through all of 2021, the P/E of the S&P was dropping. That's because earnings were more than justifying the increase in the overall stock market.

If you're worried about TSLA's valuation, research how it relates to other companies and their comparable growth, what multiple it should be getting and where it's fundamentals are headed.

I get it's nice and comforting to hear others tell you everything's fine, this is just a big head fake in the macro market, and that the bull run is going to continue soon......but having that confidence for yourself will help you make smarter investing decisions

 

[Singuy]

I know my post didn't and I apologize for this.
Basically, it is everyone talking about it that freaks the hell out of me. And yes, I also start talking about it and I see the problem in that.

So tbh, I cannot add substance to it. It's not my expertise, I only hold TSLA privately and that is because I am convinced of the company. I am not so much convinced of the macros though, and they might/will probably influence TSLA as well.

Don't be too hard with me, I basically look for sme. cheering me up and convincing me not to do something stupid

I think people see recession and runs for the hills. Most recessions result from demand side recession. High unemployment due to some kind of trauma to the economy which results in tightening spending from individuals with employment uncertainty. Many measures need to help stimulate the economy to increase demand for goods so companies can keep growing their earnings. If not, then it's a negative feedback loop in which the less demand for your good, the more people you laid off resulting in less demand for your goods. You see how the market can react negatively to this as it doesn't seem transitory and requires some major work to get out of the slump.

The recession I am looking at today is most likely a supply side recession due to supply chain issues. This is different than the supply side recession we had due to high unemployment rate in the 70s. Demand for goods are high as company raise prices and seem to phase no one. Everyone who wants a job has a job, and companies are begging you to take a job. Everyone is ramping up production and prices which is having companies hitting record profits, gearing for a massive economy EXPANSION vs contraction. And we know where the supply chain issues are and see a light at the end of that tunnel as the market is forward looking. Ports cannot be blocked forever, and everyone is guiding for an ease of supply chain issue starting 1H of 2023.

This is why I am sticking to the 2 quarters of slightly negative GDP and then some positive GDP numbers going forward...aka a recession with a bull rally.

 

[MABMAB]

Elon must be happy if he is thinking about X Models interior trim...

 

[2daMoon]

I hope they put the correct cover sheet on their TPS report or it is back to square one.

That may only apply to Austin GF.

I'll ask around next time I'm at Chotchkie's.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think people see recession and runs for the hills. Most recessions result from demand side recession. High unemployment due to some kind of trauma to the economy which results in tightening spending from individuals with employment uncertainty. Many measures need to help stimulate the economy to increase demand for goods so companies can keep growing their earnings. You see how the market can react negatively to this as it doesn't seem transitory and requires some major work to get out of the slump.

The recession I am looking at today is most likely a supply side recession due to supply chain issues. This is different than the supply side recession we had due to high unemployment rate in the 70s. Demand for goods are high as company raise prices and seem to phase no one. Everyone who wants a job has a job, and companies are begging you to take a job. Everyone is ramping up production and prices which is having companies hitting record profits. And we know where the supply chain issues are and see a light at the end of that tunnel as the market is forward looking. Ports cannot be blocked forever, and everyone is guiding for an ease of supply chain issue starting 1H of 2023.

This is why I am sticking to the 2 quarters of slightly negative GDP and then some positive GDP numbers going forward...aka a recession with a bull rally.

Or to put it in a different way, likely slightly negative GDP with continued earnings growth (possibly even accelerating earnings growth) at the same time aka a recession with a bull rally.

 

[printf42]

I know my post didn't and I apologize for this.
Basically, it is everyone talking about it that freaks the hell out of me. And yes, I also start talking about it and I see the problem in that.

So tbh, I cannot add substance to it. It's not my expertise, I only hold TSLA privately and that is because I am convinced of the company. I am not so much convinced of the macros though, and they might/will probably influence TSLA as well.

Don't be too hard with me, I basically look for sme. cheering me up and convincing me not to do something stupid

I think most people here held >20% net worth in TSLA during the 2018-2019 saga, and it should have bloated to >80% of their new net worth and practically “free money”.

So it’s a bad place to ask how to diversify or hedge, people will tell you to diversify with leaps and spreads.

/s

 

[Artful Dodger]

Finally, the long-awaited Plaid Battery pack teardown begins:

"Sandy & Ben dive into a few initial battery pack features in our introduction Tesla Model S Plaid ..."
Duration: 28:06 Posted: 2 hrs ago

Engineering Masterpiece | Tesla Model S Plaid Battery Pack | Munro & Associates (Youtube)

Cheers!

 

[2daMoon]

It's way too small (about 10x smaller area than Giga Shanghai), and has the worst possible access to the Interstate highway. Transport trucks would have to drive the length of Giga Texas just to get to the highway on-ramp. I'd bet against that.

FWIW, that is a toll road next to the factory, rather than an interstate. Don't know how that will figure into their transport plans. It does connect to I-10 and I-35, so would be the quickest way to get to the interstate.

The East side of the factory looks like it will have divided two-lane roads like on the West side. That should make access fairly easy for loaded trucks. Going out the entrance road at the South would be a little more convoluted route to interstates, but highways 71, 183, and 290 are all nearby. It would be slower to get trucks to the highways, but if the driver wants to go that way and avoid paying the toll it is an option.

 

[StealthP3D]

Source: TechCrunch

This is the last I’ve heard on the matter, but everything at CES in January was still manually controlled, and it’s definitely not because Elon Musk wants it that way.

That's interesting and all but it sounds like The Boring Company is arguing for the use of driver assist functions, not full autonomy. And it's important to realize that The Boring Company has a contract, and that contract will spell out what kind of taxi service they are expected to deliver. Their customer will be the primary driver of that (and I'm not sure what the contract requires TBC to deliver or whether it puts the burden of getting approved for FSD on the shoulders of TBC or not).

However, it's pretty hard to divine what Elon Musk wants here. It would seem if he wanted FSD in the tunnel network ASAP he would hard at work testing and validating FSD in the tunnel network. I haven't heard that he's doing that.