Moreover, its a global economy , and in some industries local wages compete against global wages.
Will be interesting to see how it sorts out.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Will be interesting to see how it sorts out.
I agree with Emmett on that. I don't think Austin nor Berlin opening will impact the stock price until their deliveries are reported in the subsequent quarterly earning reports as revenues. Which means well into the second half of this year at the earliest.
I think 2022 will be mostly a sideways trading year for TSLA at best, and a downward trading year at worst if we do go into a deep recession.
This is becoming somewhat tedious...
"Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny"
Tesla recalls more vehicles as US agency increases scrutiny
Tesla is recalling nearly 579,000 vehicles in the U.S. because a “Boombox” function can play sounds over an external speaker and obscure audible warnings for pedestrians.apnews.com
Fiat will have to make their new electric 500 compliant too. You could choose to change the pedestrian alert sound to music.
Now you're talking common sense. That has nothing whatsoever to do with government regulators.
ZachF
Active Member
jeewee3000
Active Member
*cough* FSD becomes safer than average human *cough*
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Institutues and PMs seem to be buying TSLA this morning (nice 'show of strength' at 10 am).
Could it be that people who watch the actual Economy (as opposed towedgies chartists) think that Tesla is best positioned to thrive in challenging macro conditions?
Asking for a friend.
Cheers!
Could it be that people who watch the actual Economy (as opposed to
Asking for a friend.
Cheers!
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Please do not start me on inefficiencies of the Health care system. I do not want to write a full length blog like FrankSG on the reasons why the inefficient public health care system will soon collapse here in Canada.
Sometimes I regret not doing my electrical engineering degree like I was supposed to when my girlfriend and I started uni. She was supposed to do med school and my first choices were electrical, mechanical and optics engineering. I was accepted with grants because my girlfriend pushed me to study as much as she was. My girlfriend finally pushed me into med school because I love talking to people and when I finally graduated med school I realized I hated prescribing pills and do diabetes follow up. Seriously like you can’t even think of. I fell in love with the mechanical engineering part of joint replacements and chose ortho. Now that our OR time is cut, I am spending more time as an unofficial consultant on EVs adoption rate for my wife who is fighting the status quo at hydro from all the older ICE drivers electrical and environmental engineers who think the adoption rate will be around 1% annually and they expect 15% adoption rate by 2035. They are still taking the decision to install undersized transformers in newly built condos on the premise that one administrator knows a neighbor who waited 8 months to take delivery of his Tesla so it won’t be widely adopted in the next decade. Some are realizing the total output of the network will be insufficient if the adoption rate increases faster than a 1% rate so the option they are thinking about is to ask customer to pay for the installation of a $10k inverter and do V2G between 6-9AM and 4-7PM if the outside temperature is below -15 degrees to heat houses with the car battery pack. Without compensation for the battery degradation and they are hoping tue consumers will let their battery drain to 5%. The inefficiencies of the public healthcare and energy distribution systems are not high. The efficiency is just inexistant.
I am telling my wife she should go work for Tesla. I am already almost a stay at home dad with covid and I can take care of the kids while she works 16 hours a day. I’m sure I would enjoy being a soccer dad driving the kids to the soccer field. Then, I would probably go crazy after 2 weeks.
Either the TMC hive global knowledge showed good arguments that Tesla will deliver 20M vehicles by 2030 while everybody else in the world is expecting a linear adoption rate or I am already crazy.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
This is clearly the line of thinking Wall Street wants in our heads, I just don't see how it's physically possible.
For this to be true, Tesla would have to dramatically underperform for all of 2022 and guidance would have to be so bad that TSLA could logically hold an actual PE of about 70 this time next year.
In what world does the company universally acknowledged as the technological leader for the next decade have a 70 PE on the back end of 87% and (let's say) 55% growth? Let alone the 50 PE we'd have if they just meet the very conservative projections of TMC members?
In the past I think these periods where SP has been held down quarter after quarter was about trying to kill Tesla. Now that earnings are so clear, they just want your shares.
It's going to be an interesting dynamic for sure. On one side, you have inflation care bears and just bears in general that have been waiting years for a "I told you so moment". On the other side, you have actual earnings that, just like every earnings season for the past few years, just crushed it. You have to ask.....what happens by around Q1's earnings and then Q2's earnings.....when companies are continuing to post earnings growth that's not impacted by inflation.
I'll add something and I'm sure some here will probably take a bit of issue with it, but I honestly do not think 7.5% YoY inflation matters to the economy. Now obviously if in a year inflation is up 7.5% YoY again, well then that's another story.
But inflation was stagnate for a long time. As pointed out here before, housing has gone up quite a bit in a number of areas, but that's primarily due to the migration of the tech workforce and remote workers. The people that were already living in those areas aren't paying a higher mortage. And the people that are on the move, are actually saving money on their housing/renting because they're moving from much higher cost of living areas. Food prices are higher but people are still actually saving money because again, remote work has taken over. Instead of spending money eating out for breakfast, lunch, dinner, they're buying groceries. So even if grocery prices are higher, people are still overall paying less on food. As for gas, now consumers actually have options for EV's that completely negate the increases in oil/gas. And not only does an EV negate any inflation in gas, overall deflates the cost of the car over time.
Now there will be a group/part of the economy that does get hit by this inflation and will see their discretionary spending contract a bit. Mainly because they won't enjoy the offset of remote working that I mentioned above because well, they weren't being hit by those things to begin with. And this will probably be the most controversial part of this post, but as we saw during the first year of Covid......this group doesn't matter to real GDP output,. the health of the economy, and most importantly to earnings for companies. They simply don't contribute enough to it to matter.
Thus I'm fairly confident that for the first half of this year and Q1 and Q2's earnings, we're going to see continued stellar earnings/revenue growth while at the same time getting lousy "old school" GDP tracking metrics. And that will result in a lot of dumbfounded looks by traditional economists and wall st bears that though this 7.5% inflation tick signals a major incoming recession and that the stock market is overvalued.
I expect a lot of "How are these companies doing this well when inflation has taken away all of the discretionary spending of the consumer????" The answer will be, it hasn't taken away discretionary spending due to deflation that's not showing up in traditional inflation/deflation metrics.
But it's going to take time for all that to really show, which is why I'm not that optimistic for Q1. I think Q1 and Q2 will be mostly flat quarters for the market overall.....and that's a good thing actually.
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The issue is that random noises that do not signify movement may detract from the defined noise that does indicate movement.
i.e. The boy that cried wolf. Or, trees that scream all the time, for no good reason.
Boombox is still enabled in park.
NHTSA has been talking with Tesla about this since Jan 15, 2021. Feature was introduced Dec 24, 2020.
https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2022/RCLRPT-22V063-8773.PDF
As expected, the market didn't care about the CPI numbers. Arkk, BTC, Meme are all green. Risk is ON.
If TSLA stays at 930/share through the end of the year, TTM P/E is definitely lower than 70. Probably more like under 50. People already forgetting that Q4's GAAP EPS should have been roughly $.50 higher due to Elons award tranches and Elon's options. Literally no way those two items of 340 million and 250 million repeat going forward since only 62 million left on Elon's award tranches. I'm leaving out the other one-time costs of 360 million due to recall/expedite because those could happen again, though I do not think they will.
So Tesla's Forward P/E is actually in the 70's right now......not the 90's as it's officially listed.
Expect Wall St to act all surprised and dumbfounded on Q1's earnings.
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Eh don't rebound too much macro market cause TSLA's just gonna be capped at 935 and I'm going to turn into a grumpy old man again
I might agree with that if the FMVSS specified a set of sounds that every vehicle was required to use. But with each manufacturer being able to select different sounds for each model/year that sort of negates it.
I wonder how many buyers are in my position.... We first ordered the Model X when it was revealed (2013/14?). We had a Leaf on lease at the time. The delivery of the X kept getting pushed back. We got into real trouble when Nissan would not extend our lease any longer. Finally took delivery in 2016. I ordered the Cybertruck the night of the reveal. I now have two on order. Based on the original schedule, I was supposed to be driving it right now. My current tow vehicle for 7k+ pounds is my 11 year old Jeep Grand Cherokee with the V8 Hemi. I don't know how much longer the Jeep will last, and I don't want to waste money on a new/used ICE vehicle to replace it. So yesterday I put down a deposit on a Rivian (even though I made fun of its tiny truck bed for the last year). I hope I get the Cybertruck first and can cancel the Rivian. It will be fun to see which one actually gets delivered first. I'm a little sad because I told myself I would only buy Tesla going forward, but the delays are pushing my hand to do something different.... On the plus side, I've been looking at some Rivian videos, and it seems like a very well thought out truck....
What I love is Cory is absolutely right. His explanation that the market just wants to cause the most pain is spot on. When everyone thinks their analysis about the macro is spot on, the market will do the exact opposite leaving behind pain and anger. Either you stay long or be the contrarian.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol, somebody keeps BUYING
Middle Bollinger-Band reached at 10:35 so now we see how much extra buying interest appears.
Cheers!
Middle Bollinger-Band reached at 10:35 so now we see how much extra buying interest appears.
Cheers!
I very much agree. The thing is.....when you're a TSLA investor you get so used to the mind games that get played that it has no effect on you.
It actually helps a lot in times like these with what's going on in the macro market. Instead of letting fear take over, it's very easy for me to sit back, look at all the data I can, use the insight I do have into the tech workforce and how they're benefiting even with inflation and it takes away a lot of fear. Honestly probably one thing I really appreciate is that my circle is very diverse from different parts of the country.
My family is in the south, Arizona, and California so I get perspectives as to what they're going through and then I keep in touch with a lot of my former collogues. Many of which have moved out of California and Washington state to cheaper cost of living states and are not just enjoying discretionary spending like they've never had before because they're moved to much cheaper cost of living states, but many are talking about how they now have the option to retire many years early if they wanted to. Most don't want to retire because they're loving remote work so much
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