MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
This price action is totally normal. Nothing to see here folks....
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
No volume, anywhere really. Everyone's waiting for the mythical stimulus package...
As frustrating as it may be, $TSLA mostly tracking the index.
I do find it really weird that nobody appears to be buying into earnings.
We're all already at max margin.
i guess the trend of run up and sell news is broken (although another 2.5 days to keep it intact)
given last few weeks you’d think the more it consolidates on low volume the more the spring effect up or down, considering we got one decent volume day and it hit ~460
given last few weeks you’d think the more it consolidates on low volume the more the spring effect up or down, considering we got one decent volume day and it hit ~460
I think a flurry of sell-offs post ER among many companies had spooked the market. Let's see if we are going to see a switch to buying on the news.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
uh... what?
Again you appear to have largely misunderstood most of what I actually wrote and somehow strung together unrelated statements to make up things I didn't actually say.
Again, the original point was the very high rate of car ownership in NYC is strong evidence americans are in no hurry to give up personal car ownership in favor of robotaxis- because of all the places in the US it's probably the easiest place to NOT own one, and among the most expensive to own one anyway, and yet a MAJORITY of households still choose to own 1 or more cars there.
The counter-argument that they only do so for the occasional roadtrip was the only nonsense raised, since renting is obviously a better choice than paying hundreds a month for parking, hundreds or thousands a year for insurance, plus the actual cost of the vehicle and its maintenance.
So obviously there's reasons OTHER than occasional roadtrips they choose to still own a personal vehicle.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Ok you shamed me into buying a bit.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW I've talked to a few folks who had exactly that argument.... basically TSLA was flat for years as folks didn't believe.... then shot way up when the argument looked convincing- far past where CURRENT valuation would reasonably be- based on folks now buying into the future growth story.
So now the stock has to be (relatively) flat for a while as the company at least somewhat catches up to how far ahead of its current state the stock got.
(these folks often cited Elon saying the current valuation wasn't justified and such as part of the argument- and suggest that Tesla simply executing well now is already priced in with the huge gains up to this point)
You can certainly debate how far ahead of ground truth the stock should be right now, but clearly there's some folks thinking as you suggest that it can't run too much further ahead at least without new, good reason.
There are lots of potential surprises not priced in.
1. FSD being better than expected, and expectation is pretty low.
2. Margins being way better than expected
3. Berlin and Texas factories going up faster than shanghai
4. Solar roof sales/solar higher than expected, especially solar roof.
5. Tesla battery cells ramping faster than expected.
So let's just see how much Elon is under promising because what is priced in is based on him over promising as usual.
Buddyroe
Active Member
So, if people spend their own money to buy something you wouldn't buy, that means they have little sense? How did you get the be the Supreme Decider on all things smart or dumb to buy? And how do you know other people's situation well enough to know what's best for them? It's very strange that people can make enough money to afford a $70 to $80k car, but have little sense. That's some good reasoning right there.
You do realize that bigger, heavier vehicles are by nature safer than smaller cars. If not, you may want to do some research on the safety ratings and what they mean. Even Elon pointed this out right after model 3 got a 5 star rating.
It seems that most of the time, when I hear the phrase "more money than sense", it's coming from a person of lesser wealth who couldn't afford the item in question anyway. Though I have no idea of your situation.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Less than a year til Elon can resume the Chairman's role.
Yes, it can get much higher yet. Even this week, we could have massive news on a number of these
1. Beta FSD update tomorrow! FSD isnt priced into the TSLA share price at all. If we start to see YouTube videos of the car driving itself around the city for 10-15mins with no intervention, this should double the share price once this sinks in
2. If profits are well over $500m, I think we will get a 10% increase maybe beyond $500bn market cap
3. If on the earnings call, Elon sheds light that Tesla batteries are already going into vehicles and ramping to large volumes, this could increase share price 20-30%
So still a long way to run!
Or rather alpha version for a small number of people who have signed an NDA? I believe beta test was supposed to be 4-6 weeks later assuming that no major issues are found in alpha. Public release in mid to late December if everything went smoothly with the beta group as well.
Friday was fruitful (said with tampered excitement).
Today I tried, but didn't get my $432 price. Going to be a roller coaster again.
It sure feels like buying season.
Drumheller
Active Member
I moved some funds over to be ready to buy a dip on sell the news. So the pattern will likely be broken now.
Also, I'm scheduled to pick up a model y this weekend. My first factory new vehicle.
Also, I'm scheduled to pick up a model y this weekend. My first factory new vehicle.
It's kinda hard for there to be a "sell on the news" event when there's been no "rally/buy on the rumor".
Not saying that the stock won't get pushed down if this low volume continues, but there's no set up here in the past month of a buy the rumor.
Sudre
Active Member
What I think of as an interesting thought process is the coal powerhouse in the background. If not already, soon will be shut down and all that space goes to waste. What if the stacks were demo'd and the interior space emptied out and Tesla put a modified Megapack assembly line inside which wouldn't take up much space. My reasoning is the entire place could be filled up with massive amounts of battery storage.. MASSIVE. It already has all the grid connections it needs. Then solar could fill the roof and property. Look at how small this large Megapack installation is compared to the size and multiple floors of the powerhouse. I say modified assembly line because you would not need the water tight structures and cooling concerns might have to be addressed with them inside.
Not that I expect this to happen but some people outside of us seem to think there is no way to have enough batteries to backup the grid for days of clouds. I say you can store more kWh with lithium batteries on that property than those coal fire turbines could generate. The coal fired steam turbines are at best 500mWh each. You could basically turn that building into a Terapack. Realistically I believe it would be better to have distributed battery pack rather than all in one spot.
The point of this here? Think of how many batteries it will take to supply the needs of a green future. I can definitely see Tesla Energy exceeding cars.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
It would be more expensive to ship in all the cells and assemble them on-site than to simply make the megapack up at GF1, like is already done.
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