Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JohnnyEnglish]

AutoScout24: Auto kaufen & verkaufen in der Schweiz

German, French or Italian speaker required ideally (I used Google translate)

Alles nicht in ordnung, methinks.

• 409 total for sale
• New - 173 total (of below 2 sub-categories)
  • 145 "New Vehicle"
  • 28 cars "New vehicle with daily registration"
• 94 cars "Occasion" (same in all 3 languages)
• 0 cars "Oldtimer"
• 142 cars "Demonstration model"

View attachment 629410

Not lived in France for a couple of decades but I think Occasion means used/second hand - not new.

 

[bkp_duke]

Brings up another point. I've seen some talk around(mostly from analysts) that think Tesla's EV credit revenue will go down in 2021. Yet all of the evidence I've seen points to the contrary in that EU restrictions and penalties get stricter and more costly in 2021 and 2022. Some were speculation that the Euro auto makers were gaming the system in a way to lower their 2021 and 2022 requirements.

Given the issues that we're seeing from EU auto makers, especially VW in terms of production, I'm pretty confident that they're going to badly miss their targets and Tesla's ev credit revenue will be noticeably higher every quarter in 2021 compared to 2022.

We will have to see. I agree with your reasoning, but bear in mind that traditional auto sold many fewer cars in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Fewer cars means fewer credits per car.

Not sure how this will pan out, guess we will have to wait for the numbers.

 

[T@oo]

Tesla has traded basically sideways for a few weeks.

Consolidating for another leg up?
View attachment 629403

The longer the base ...

 

[KMCC]

Greenlight Calls Owning Tesla Stock a ‘Fad’ Amid ‘Silly’ Surge

Latest einporn article...

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc.’s dizzying surge through 2020 showcased an investor craze for snapping up shares of the company and not in buying its cars, David Einhorn‘s Greenlight Capital said in a letter to investors on Thursday.

“The fad is in owning Tesla stock,” according to the fund’s fourth-quarter letter seen by Bloomberg News. Tesla cars “are not a fad; if they were, Tesla would sell many more than it does,” the letter said.

Tesla shares were slightly lower to $846.90 Thursday after having surged more than 900% since the start of 2020. That compares to a 19% rise for the S&P 500. Greenlight’s portfolio was hammered by losses in betting against Elon Musk’s automaker throughout 2020 with the position marking its largest loser.

There's more, but I don't want to subject anyone to it!

 

[Etna]

Not lived in France for a couple of decades but I think Occasion means used/second hand - not new.

That's correct.

 

[15Peter20]

Perhaps a suitable sideways topic - we all know how the news media reacted on battery day - a big collective huh?

But a few days ago Tesla released this video about battery production. Proving that journalists need to be spoon fed wit pretty pictures:

...because after this video was released I got sent this link to an UK newspaper writing an article on Tesla Roadrunner battery production - and not getting all the facts wrong...:

Elon Musk unveils Tesla Roadrunner production line and tabless battery in new video | Daily Mail Online

Quotes:

Tesla's Hot Wheels production line: Elon Musk shows off the workshop of giant casting machines that make cells for his electric cars

The tabless battery was first unveiled in September during the firm's Battery Day, but was only shown by Musk via a PowerPoint presentation.

Now, the time has come for Musk to show the world what Tesla has been working on at its pilot battery factory in Fremont, Texas.


...and I did a search and found this article about a Tesla possibly on autopilot in Sweden avoiding a Moose crossing the road - you can see the video in the article:

Tesla autopilot manages to avoid crashing into animal crossing the road at night in Sweden | Daily Mail Online

Quotes:

This is the heart-stopping moment a Tesla autopilot swerved on an icy road in a desperate, but successful, bid to avoid hitting a moose.

Dashcam footage shows the smart vehicle, a Tesla Model S, quickly turning to the side after its on-board camera spotted the wild animal crossing a road in Sweden in the dark.

However, the Tesla driver, named David, uses cat-like reactions to swerve around the moose and avoids catastrophe.

The electronic car was left without a scratch as it managed to stabilise itself after swerving on the icy road to prevent crashing into the wild moose crossing the road

The Tesla Model S is particularly designed to prevent the car from sliding out of control.

With four-wheel drive, it would send differing power levels to each wheel in order to control the vehicle.

Not quite sure who is driving there but positive talk about the electronic smart car is something I can live with.[/QUOTE


The Mail is traditionally very conservative so nice to see them giving Tesla positive vibes.

The comments section will be full of spittle no doubt.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Brings up another point. I've seen some talk around(mostly from analysts) that think Tesla's EV credit revenue will go down in 2021. Yet all of the evidence I've seen points to the contrary in that EU restrictions and penalties get stricter and more costly in 2021 and 2022. Some were speculation that the Euro auto makers were gaming the system in a way to lower their 2021 and 2022 requirements.

Given the issues that we're seeing from EU auto makers, especially VW in terms of production, I'm pretty confident that they're going to badly miss their targets and Tesla's ev credit revenue will be noticeably higher every quarter in 2021 compared to 2022.

I've been trying to find out what's gonna happen from 2022 and the next few years in regard to pooling and costs for ICE manufacturers.

Can't say I've figured out much but I did come across this link that has some info on 2025 forward that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere before.

CO₂ emission performance standards for cars and vans (2020 onwards) - Climate Action - European Commission

Here's a very interesting part

----------------
Incentive mechanism for zero- and low-emission vehicles (ZLEV)
A ZLEV is defined in the Regulation as a passenger car or a van with CO2 emissions between 0 and 50 g/km.

To incentivise the uptake of ZLEV, a crediting system is introduced from 2025 on.

The specific CO2 emission target of a manufacturer will be relaxed if its share of ZLEV registered in a given year exceeds the following benchmarks:

• Cars: 15% ZLEV from 2025 on and 35% ZLEV from 2030 on
• Vans: 15% ZLEV from 2025 on and 30% ZLEV from 2030 on

A one percentage point exceedance of the ZLEV benchmark will increase the manufacturer’s CO2 target (in g CO2/km) by one percent. The target relaxation is capped at maximum 5% to safeguard the environmental integrity of the Regulation.

For calculating the ZLEV share in a manufacturer’s fleet, an accounting rule applies. This gives a greater weight to ZLEV with lower CO2 emissions.

In addition, for cars only, during the period 2025 to 2030, a greater weight is given to ZLEV registered in Member States with a low ZLEV uptake in 2017, and this as long as the ZLEV share in the Member State’s fleet of newly registered cars does not exceed 5%.

Pooling, exemptions and derogations
The provisions on pooling between manufacturers are the same as under the previous Regulations.

-------------------

So this seems to be a new system replacing or complimenting the current system for how emissions are regulated now, starting in 2025. It sure looks like many of the ICE manufacturers will have a hard time getting to more than 15% of their cars being under 50 g/km in 2025.

Anyone have any more info or insight into these 2025 rules?

 

[Tslynk67]

This does feel eerily familiar. Absurdly low volume most days, but MM's not getting much traction on their pushdown efforts. Everything feels super tight. Great foundation for a blowout earnings/guidance report followed by 50M Robinhood bros getting handed $1400.

There's also the trillions of dollars waiting on the sidelines for some form of return. I don't see how any of the current factors lead to selling TSLA.

Unfathomable we're at $4200 pre-split, but it's STILL kinda silly to sell TSLA. If my $1300 sold calls get exercised this summer, I'm not entirely sure how I'll feel. If they get exercised NEXT summer, I'm getting the feeling I might feel mild regret. Will dry my tears with wads of c-notes.

Back to consolidation.....

Well at least you'll be able to treat the wife to new shoes and a coat, maybe even a cycle for your son...

 

[Tslynk67]

We will not be telling her that. I had to spend an hour talking her off the ledge about the first shot. She’s very sensitive to medications and vaccines. But her LTC facility is top notch and has extra doctors on hand for the shots, as well were checking everyone every 15 minutes for several hours. She was cranky they wouldn’t leave her alone to nap. Zero residents have contracted Covid at this facility, which is amazing.

On the TSLA front, she’s currently refusing to predict further out than spring because I gave her such a hard time about missing the last target by $20 and 5 trading days. Fortunately, she’ll eventually forget it happened and we’ll have new numbers.

Pfff, these analysts, never wanting to stick their necks out, eh?

 

[traxila]

Greenlight Calls Owning Tesla Stock a ‘Fad’ Amid ‘Silly’ Surge

Latest einporn article...

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc.’s dizzying surge through 2020 showcased an investor craze for snapping up shares of the company and not in buying its cars, David Einhorn‘s Greenlight Capital said in a letter to investors on Thursday.

“The fad is in owning Tesla stock,” according to the fund’s fourth-quarter letter seen by Bloomberg News. Tesla cars “are not a fad; if they were, Tesla would sell many more than it does,” the letter said.

Tesla shares were slightly lower to $846.90 Thursday after having surged more than 900% since the start of 2020. That compares to a 19% rise for the S&P 500. Greenlight’s portfolio was hammered by losses in betting against Elon Musk’s automaker throughout 2020 with the position marking its largest loser.

There's more, but I don't want to subject anyone to it!

Fad like the hula hoop? Or fad like onna dem boxes with the talking people in it?

 

[Dutchie]

Tesla has traded basically sideways for a few weeks.

Consolidating for another leg up?
View attachment 629403

History tells us that this is normal and can go on for a while. We are all drunk on what happened last year, but that was a real exceptional year.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 42 minutes ago: 10 Consumer Discretionary Stocks With Unusual Options Alerts In Today's Session

Excerpt:

Regarding TSLA (NASDAQ:TSLA), we observe a call option trade with bullish sentiment. It expires in 1 day(s) on January 22, 2021. A trader bought 400 contract(s) at a $850.00 strike. The trader or institution spent $320.0K on this trade with a price of $800.0 per contract. There were 7341 open contracts at this strike prior to today, and today 24961 contract(s) were bought and sold.

 

[Compton]

Greenlight Calls Owning Tesla Stock a ‘Fad’ Amid ‘Silly’ Surge

Latest einporn article...

(Bloomberg) -- Tesla Inc.’s dizzying surge through 2020 showcased an investor craze for snapping up shares of the company and not in buying its cars, David Einhorn‘s Greenlight Capital said in a letter to investors on Thursday.

“The fad is in owning Tesla stock,” according to the fund’s fourth-quarter letter seen by Bloomberg News. Tesla cars “are not a fad; if they were, Tesla would sell many more than it does,” the letter said.

Tesla shares were slightly lower to $846.90 Thursday after having surged more than 900% since the start of 2020. That compares to a 19% rise for the S&P 500. Greenlight’s portfolio was hammered by losses in betting against Elon Musk’s automaker throughout 2020 with the position marking its largest loser.

There's more, but I don't want to subject anyone to it!

2012; It's impossible to scale manufacturing as fast as Tesla is suggesting! (Elon Musk estimated 500 thousand cars in 2020)
2020; Tesla ain't a fad because they aren't selling more cars! (Tesla is manufacturing and selling about 500 thousand cars)

 

[avoigt]

AutoScout24: Auto kaufen & verkaufen in der Schweiz

German, French or Italian speaker required ideally (I used Google translate)

Alles nicht in ordnung, methinks.

• 409 total for sale
• New - 173 total (of below 2 sub-categories)
  • 145 "New Vehicle"
  • 28 cars "New vehicle with daily registration"
• 94 cars "Occasion" (same in all 3 languages)
• 0 cars "Oldtimer"
• 142 cars "Demonstration model"

View attachment 629410

That's a web page where used models are offered.

The ID.3 is not like ICE vehicles sold from VW to dealers but the dealer is only the agent for VW to sell the car to a customer. IOW the ID.3s that you usually see at a VW dealership still belong to VW.

In Switzerland I have seen up to 50% ID.3s ever sold are listed on that page including a similar one called mobilde.de or .ch

Nevertheless, dealers can of course buy cars from VW and list them as registered vehicles on that used car page. To what extent that is done is not known but they would take the financial risk and may give high discounts too. The agency model from VW tries to make sure these cars do not get high discounts.

I wrote 2 articles lately about that topic.

It appears in any case that an unusually high amount of ID.3s is on the used car market trying to find a buyer.

 

[generalenthu]

Weird as it may seem, the BTC weakness seems to be spilling over to Tesla.

Unfortunate that these assets seem to be correlated, but it is what it is. Looking forward to when they decouple.


Bitcoin falls 11% after report suggests a critical flaw in the cryptocurrency called 'double spend' may have occurred

 

[M|S|M MYP]

There are justifiable reasons why TSLA should be valued higher than GOOG right now.

Valuing a company as unique as Tesla must go beyond the textbook if you want it to be accurate or meaningful. That is the mistake TSLAQ has made all along - they keep treating it like a regular auto company. Anyone with half a brain can easily see it's not.

0.00000004 of a brain > TSLAQ

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Weird as it may seem, the BTC weakness seems to be spilling over to Tesla.

Unfortunate that these assets seem to be correlated, but it is what it is. Looking forward to when they decouple.


Bitcoin falls 11% after report suggests a critical flaw in the cryptocurrency called 'double spend' may have occurred

Great correlation. One falls 11% the other 0.5%. The bitcoin speculators really are desperate to find any kind of connection to real companies. If you think TeslaQ people are ridiculous it's nothing compared to the ones pumping bitcoin.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We must be trending toward and recent record low volume figure for today. We gonna even reach 18M?

 

[Fred42]

It appears in any case that an unusually high amount of ID.3s is on the used car market trying to find a buyer.

Because people don't want them, or because demand is high and people are trying to get a high price for a scarce product?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Because people don't want them, or because demand is high and people are trying to get a high price for a scarce product?

Since they were pushed out at the end of December one need not be that suspicious to make the connection to them saving several thousand euros in EU emission fees for every car that was registered in 2020.