Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MXWing]

Ah crap, he's selling more shares today! Gonna finish all of us TSLA investors off!!!

It's probably just some "blue bird" thingy though...

A pretty solid Coup De Grace to TSLA investors would be taking Tesla's cash and doing a joint investment with Twitter (Tesla bearing 99% of the risk) into a metaverse play.

Our online avatars can drive around in Tesla's and fight culture wars. There is literally no better way to "unlock Twitter's value" and "accelerate the world to sustainable energy than this.".

 

[Curt Renz]

It's 1:53 est... could we get a update from @Curt Renz about how the day may finish?
Asking for the entire Investors Forum...

It appears that big option writers may want to defend $150, due to all of the interest and trades in puts there. They may also want to shut out call buyers at $153.33. S&P 500 rebalancing remains a wild card. "If" Elon did more selling today, I suspect that would've ended around 11:30 am EST. There's also the question of whether the Tesla board wants to take advantage of the final Q4 opportunity to buy back shares. Lots of considerations - stay tuned.

 

[EVDRVN]

Don't know what you mean, AD said he hasn't taken a vacation in 15 years, I posted a pic of him on vacation recently.

I know firsthand that is not accurate. Not sure it really matters however. How one classifies a vacation is subjective but it was not a work trip and it was to a "vacation" spot.

 

[Stretch2727]

Elon agreeing with the analysis.

If you think used car loan/least defaults won't be a huge issue in 2023, then read this thread.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603794761785249793

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603820996204539904

 

[jerry33]

I know firsthand that is not accurate. Not sure it really matters however. How one classifies a vacation is subjective but it was not a work trip and it was to a "vacation" spot.

I'm guessing that means a real "divorced from work for at least two weeks" vacation. Not one that is mostly work with a couple of days for sightseeing.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon agreeing with the analysis.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1603820996204539904

Now the million dollar question is how will this impact Tesla?

 

[MC3OZ]

Record production is one thing.
Beating expectations by far is what is expected for a possible bump in the stock from last earnings results it seems

Well apply 50% compound growth to earnings on a 20X multiple.

The market is incapable of looking 1-2 years ahead.

 

[GOVA]

Don't know what you mean, AD said he hasn't taken a vacation in 15 years, I posted a pic of him on vacation recently.

I don't think you know what a vacation is. I go for a boat ride and booze for a day or two but it is hardly a vacation.

I don't remember Jobs trashing Apple customers.

I assume you meant shareholders? Well, when Apple stonk went down, which it did, those shareholders were not the kind that would have sold their mothers for a penny.

Rahter, they did support Jobs ALL THE TIME.

View attachment 885783

Homie the Clown, FYI.

 

[Motor Mouth]

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Now the million dollar question is how will this impact Tesla?

So, government bailout of GMAC? (I hope this is a joke.)

 

[Rarity]

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Now the million dollar question is how will this impact Tesla?

This is one of those good questions, which I wish we would focus on more in this thread.

My hope would be that Tesla could grow through it, sacrificing margins along the way. The IRA would be very helpful in weathering the storm in the US plus whatever Europe comes up with to offset the IRA. There are areas such as insurance that should grow no matter, or perhaps even accelerate. The lack of debt is very helpful.

I would also hope that Tesla could continue to grow its R&D portfolio rather than pare back. Tesla's spending efficiency on R&D is exceptional.

Regardless, these are the times when fortunes are made (and lost). The recently much-maligned CEO has a lot of experience in dealing with this type of situation, what with PayPal thriving amidst the dot-com bust.

 

[SOULPEDL]

So, I had an interesting call from a successful small business owner. We hired his firm to do some work for us earlier this year and of course, engaged in discussion around Tesla. TL;DR, today he asked me if it was a good time to buy TSLA. With appropriate disclaimer (Not investment advice), I gave him a current tutorial on where this company is right now - accelerating on all electric motors (I had to correct myself when I thought “firing on all 4 cylinders). He asked about Elon being a risk - and I said he has installed very strong managers, Zach, Drew etc. I gave him the link to this forum/thread and advised him to read up. My bet is he will buy in.

A single data point, but there are people paying attention.

I continue to DCA.

Two, got that same call from a friend (same as earlier in the week) who placed an order for $150, and would rather pay $100 for it.
No disclaimers, I told him he's not going to get it.

 

[Beltsbear]

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Now the million dollar question is how will this impact Tesla?

"biggest financial crisis ever".... Nope. Not even close. This is nothing like a $600k mortgage being $300k underwater. This is a $30k loan being $5000 underwater on average... when the owner is compelled (though less so by cardealershipguy's example) to pay it back even when it is underwater. So most of the loans will still be paid back. For example, Ford's debt situation is better now than it was two years ago. And most of the consumers who bought overpriced cars, had to put money down when then sale price was above MSRP. This situation the cardealershipguy is talking about is going to be more a problem for used car lots and their finance companies, a business that he is in.

 

[wtlloyd]

Irritating merry-go-round today.
Just do something!!
In for 100.

 

[Rarity]

"biggest financial crisis ever".... Nope. Not even close. This is nothing like a $600k mortgage being $300k underwater. This is a $30k loan being $5000 underwater on average... when the owner is compelled (though less so by cardealershipguy's example) to pay it back even when it is underwater. So most of the loans will still be paid back. For example, Ford's debt situation is better now than it was two years ago. And most of the consumers who bought overpriced cars, had to put money down when then sale price was above MSRP. This situation the cardealershipguy is talking about is going to be more a problem for used car lots and their finance companies, a business that he is in.

My reading of the thread was that Elon was talking about the crisis that the cardealershipguy's situation describes is exacerbating. Elon is keeping his eyes on macro.

 

[elasalle]

My reading of the thread was that Elon was talking about the crisis that the cardealershipguy's situation describes is exacerbating. Elon is keeping his eyes on macro.

more like debtors won't let him take his eyes off it

 

[BornToFly]

It appears that big option writers may want to defend $150, due to all of the interest and trades in puts there. They may also want to shut out call buyers at $153.33. S&P 500 rebalancing remains a wild card. "If" Elon did more selling today, I suspect that would've ended around 11:30 am EST. There's also the question of whether the Tesla board wants to take advantage of the final Q4 opportunity to buy back shares. Lots of considerations - stay tuned.

I agree. 150 will trigger stop losses and then we see 145. They are defending today, and probably positioning to profit for the drop next week.

Edit: QQQ rallying a little near the close. TSLA is not. Next week could be

 

[Rarity]

more like debtors won't let him take his eyes off it

I don't think he needs the pressure from the debtors. Over the last couple of years, Tesla has been aggressively paying down debt. You could say that this is because Tesla didn't know what to do with the money, so why not pay down debt. But the other option is that Musk is paranoid about a depression and has vowed never to be at the mercy of debtors in the midst of one.

 

[EVMeister]

I agree. 150 will trigger stop losses and then we see 145. They are defending today, and probably positioning to profit for the drop next week.

With you making that prediction, I guess that pretty much guarantees a glorious green week next week. Appreciated!

 

[BornToFly]

With you making that prediction, I guess that pretty much guarantees a glorious green week next week. Appreciated!

No, there is only a guarantee if I sell shares or buy Puts. I'll let you know....

 

[StealthP3D]

Just finished listening to the All-In podcast and I think Chamath said Elon had to sell because he got margin called. Not sure how accurate that info is. Just thought I put it here because I have not heard that before.

I doubt it. But if it were true, it would be the height of ridiculousness because it would imply the lenders changed the margin requirements on one of the richest men in the world while the underwritten business was busy breaking new financial and operational milestones. No matter how convincing they tried to be when they explained to him it was just standard procedure to protect their loans from large losses, it would be abundantly clear it was a targeted attack on Musk and his businesses by shady forces.

The expected result of such action would be a hardening of resolve on Elon's part, and an even stronger determination to crush it like never before and show the world what he's really made of in a manner that would blow his previous achievements out of the water.

Much more likely the selling was simple de-risking in the event that the global economy goes into a serious tailspin.