Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Lithium refinery online within 2 years

That's Elon's aspirational estimate. The self-proclaimed lithium expert who asked the question said 7 years was typical.

 

[TSLA Siempre]

If customer deposits do not drop...can we please for the love of God stop with the Twitter/Elon demand destruction narrative?

This seems to be very much a live question in light of this weeks price cuts. The twitter spaces did not reassure on this point.

 

[StealthP3D]

Seems quite material, no?

Much of it was material information but I'm racking my brain to come up with something Elon said that has not been said before (new material information is what must be avoided) and I'm drawing a blank. I even think the two years for the lithium refinery sounded familiar (but not sure on that).

 

[TSLA Siempre]

On the last earnings call, Elon said that even in the event of a tough recession, TSLA would still generate meaningful cash. Several weeks later, he seems to be singing a different tune. Macro environment hasn’t changed so dramatically since the q3 call. There is ample anecdotal data that his political rantings have had an effect. Tesla/Elon needs to show the data that refutes it. It shouldn’t even have to be an issue, but since he made it one, he must answer the doubts. Deflecting questions and talking about being ‘suppressed’ is nonsense.

 

[vikings123]

Btw, the 10% uptick rule (also known as SSR or Short Sale Rule) is effectively meaningless against TSLA since the primary way TSLA is getting shorted is synthetically by buying puts (forcing market makers to sell shares) and not by outright shorting of TSLA shares (which we would easily see).

Yes AND it is a very liquid stock so it really doesn’t matter unless the volume is really really low.

 

[SO16]

It makes sense to keep production and sales up (even at a loss) during a recession.

Once FSD gets solved, that’s a lot of vehicles already in customer’s hands that could add to new potential profits.

 

[nativewolf]

It's important to add context to what Elon said. His comments about negative profits, or significant difficulties with demand, were in the context of a "2008 style" or "worse than 2008" recession. While I personally have concerns about the course of the fed's action, I struggle to find 2008 to be an appropriate comparison in any way. 2008 was as serious as it was largely because our financial system was on the brink of collapse. Massive deflation followed, lending was non existent etc.

In 2008 many people lost their homes, which massively affected their consumption. Housing was massively oversupplied, so when the bubble popped a massive amount of construction jobs were lost, which is a very important sector of the economy. The effect became self fulfilling. Contrast this with today, while yes the rise in mortgage rates will substantially impact the housing market (and it already has). It seems very unlikely it would end up the same way. Lack of ARMs, much more equity in homes, credit/lending standards better, and most importantly we still have yet to see any uptick in the supply of homes needed as a prerequisite to "crash" the housing market.

In addition there is a definite shortage of labor. Covid saw lots of early retirements (I considered myself in this bucket, but we'll see what TSLA does tomorrow) as well as decreases in immigration that we seem unlikely to make up for. The result of this is an economy in which even with decreased demand at the margin, unemployment seems unlikely to rise in a massive way.

Lastly, while I understand Jerome Powell (or Daddy JPow as I affectionately call him), may not be a friend of many here. I think he made recent comments that reveal the fed's mindset quite clearly. He said they aren't too concerned about doing too much, because they showed in 2020 that they have the tools to juice the markets/economy if need be. And quite frankly, I believe him. The Fed/Government stand much more ready to act than they were in 2008.

Long-term, I think Elon is right, deflation is the problem we face. But I think he is combining his long term view on that topic, with the ways in which 2008/9 shaped him (which he referenced on the twitter spaces) to conclude that a deflationary disaster may be on the horizon. This is the context in which he talks about these very negative financial outcomes.

So while I don't think the outcome will be anywhere near as dire as Elon thinks, Tesla as a company will be better for it, as I am sure he will double down on ruthless efficiency.

Of course em is right that deflation is the monster. Renewables and EVs will certainly cause a large amount by themselves by 2030 or so.

 

[Ohmster]

Elon Musk Tesla Investor Twitter Space SUPERCUT | Duration: 25:22 Orig was 1:08 hrs (posted 4 hrs ago)

When I stumble in my conviction of either Tesla or TSLA, a good old chat session with the man allays all my fears. HODLing through this pain best I can.

 

[MXWing]

If customer deposits do not drop...can we please for the love of God stop with the Twitter/Elon demand destruction narrative?

I will agree that DEMAND DESTRUCTION is a bit hubrisy. However, sometimes the best way to win is not to play.

Can we say there is at least ONE lost sale from Elon's twitter adventurism? You would agree with this. How about two sales? Three? So on and so forth.

The idea of magically offending the "extreme" on both sides and not losing sales out of that is bone headed. You are supposed to have as broad based appeal as you can. Instead this selective offensiveness ended up widening the conflict to where Elon IS losing 3 sales (at least) and more.

Tesla really needs Michael Jordan, the wise "Air Ness" on their BOD.

"Republicans buy sneakers too"

 

[Eugene Ash]

It makes sense to keep production and sales up (even at a loss) during a recession.

Once FSD gets solved, that’s a lot of vehicles already in customer’s hands that could add to new potential profits.

Tesla is reaping the margin on trade ins, since there is no dealership network. Then they can enable for features via software. E.g. Sell CPO, but sweeter, with fsd included. In essence, they can get multiple margin events, that in legacy are the reason why we love root canals more than visiting dealerships. You don't even need fsd to make this model profitable

 

[Artful Dodger]

When I stumble in my conviction of either Tesla or TSLA, a good old chat session with the man allays all my fears. HODLing through this pain best I can.

​

When you're weary​

Feeling small​

When tears are in your eyes​

I'll dry them all​

I'm on your side​

​

Oh, when times get rough​

And friends just can't be found​

Like a bridge over troubled water​

I will lay me down​

​

Like a bridge over troubled water​

I will lay me down.​

 

[Artful Dodger]

I didn’t see this posted and for those who don’t want to read through the raw numbers and do the calculations, the margin is 60%, according to the Twitter poster JamesCat and confirmed by the author of the tweet that @heltok posted. Wowsers.

Welldoggie! That's not a "web coding error", that's a humble brag!

Cheers!

 

[Max Plaid]

That's Elon's aspirational estimate. The self-proclaimed lithium expert who asked the question said 7 years was typical.

Yeah, and new factories in Germany take 5 years minimum, and that's just to get the bat permits... we're talking "Tesla Time" here don't forget!

 

[Max Plaid]

Much of it was material information but I'm racking my brain to come up with something Elon said that has not been said before (new material information is what must be avoided) and I'm drawing a blank. I even think the two years for the lithium refinery sounded familiar (but not sure on that).

Yeah, you could be right... the part about giving preference to volumes over margins was new, but that's probably not "material"

I also agree with the push for market-share over profits and once again I'd like to see Tesla come with a smaller, cheaper, Euro/city car, something in the 25-30k price range, they could probably make 2x the volume with the same batteries of an M3 and still keep decent margins, and the P&D numbers would soar

I would also like to see Tesla plow all the IRA battery incentives into cost-reduction to the buyers, Tesla doesn't need higher margins, they're already amazingly high, they need volumes - the profits will flow

 

[brantse]

Tesla gives owners a free 30-day trial of Enhanced Autopilot for the holidays

Tesla owners are starting to receive messages on their cars offering a free 30-day trial of Enhanced Autopilot, with the...

electrek.co

I sometimes think Elon reads this thread and forwards good remarks to his executives

I suspect there's quite a few employees or even executives at Tesla that keep eyes on this thread.

In 2015, when my Model S was in for repairs, I posted something in a Model S thread and got a call about it from the service center within an hour.

 

[Nolimits]

It’s just a amazing that Elon can do twitter spaces spontaneously and have thousands listen in. Quite frankly that was more fun to listen to than the earnings call.

 

[elasalle]

With interest rates this high and the possibility that Tesla might have to reduce prices to spur demand and volume - wouldn’t it be best for Tesla to start providing their own financing?

Throw in free auto pilot with Tesla financing at competitive rates and you’ll get more business
+ bundle vehicle insurance when possible as well

20B cash- some of it put to good use

 

[nativewolf]

It’s just a amazing that Elon can do twitter spaces spontaneously and have thousands listen in. Quite frankly that was more fun to listen to than the earnings call.

Destroy hundreds of billion in a few months and people’s pay attention

 

[cliff harris]

I don't think Elon has any kind of track record that shows him as an expert on macro economics.

True, but when you manage spacex, tesla, the boring company and neuralink, you have information on order flow, average selling prices, and commodity prices across multiple industries and almost every country.
He has a LOT of real world, high level data to look at. Probably more than the average newspaper economics hack. And he has it real-time.

 

[heltok]

Now that twitter shows the number of impressions, at least for most accounts, let's compare some carmakers. I will go with the one ~24h old with the most views.

Note that Tesla has ~1000x more impressions than BMW and Ford...