Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ogre]

Not unrelated, great article at CleanTechnica on the world's unmistakable entry in to the Valley of Death (of ICE vehicles).

The Global ICE industry cliff is here

WHOA... fantastic article. The whole thing is a good read, but the chart here and descriptive text is good.

The trends in internal combustion sales only began to diverge from total industry sales in 2020, with 2021 being the first year since 2017 that the overall industry grew while ICE car sales continued their decline. This trend accelerated in 2022 and the model supports how this trend will not only continue but accelerate significantly starting right now.

Chart lumps PHEV with ICE here because... it's CleanTechnica and they have a brain.

I suspect CleanTechnica is being conservative here. As EV sales accelerate and fill more and more market segments (Trucks, Vans, bigger SUVs), at better and better prices, ICE sales are going to start to cave in those markets which have held up well until now.

The paragraph on Altman Z scores (attached image)... also pretty damning.

Full article worth a read.

 

[Singuy]

Nope.

Nothing wrong with his statement unless you think we are further away from FSD from this update, or zero improvements vs what we have.

 

[Nocturnal]

They are office and salary employees, so they are being replaced with GPTchat.

GPT can make PowerPoints that promise 100 EVs by [ CurYear + 1] now? Impressive.

 

[petit_bateau]

Holy cow that is big.
The article says they are offering the buyout to the majority of their white-collar workers - basically, chopping management it sounds like.

The elephant, having been swept into deep water, tries to shed its own fat to turn its mighty bulk about ... but the shark is getting ever closer, and (as of Investor Day) we know the shark is accelerating.

Not unrelated, great article at CleanTechnica on the world's unmistakable entry in to the Valley of Death (of ICE vehicles).

The Global ICE industry cliff is here

Indeed, that is $344k per person as an average voluntary redundancy package. Rather sad when the average value of your top 58,000 people is that much negative ! These numbers make it very clear why that is :

Regarding that ICE cliff article in Cleantechnica, for a moonlighting management consultant he's not deploying the full set of models very well - as a minimum the odd history-matched S-curve is called for Perhaps s/he should be keeping up with things here Mind you I'm sure I remember some of the phrasing in his/her sentences.

 

[GOVA]

Holy cow that is big.
The article says they are offering the buyout to the majority of their white-collar workers - basically, chopping management it sounds like.

The elephant, having been swept into deep water, tries to shed its own fat to turn its mighty bulk about ... but the shark is getting ever closer, and (as of Investor Day) we know the shark is accelerating.

Not unrelated, great article at CleanTechnica on the world's unmistakable entry in to the Valley of Death (of ICE vehicles).

The Global ICE industry cliff is here

SML is talking about this in his video. I recommend watching it.

 

[Rammstein]

Hmmm. I enjoy using FSD but it is making only tiny incremental improvements. Unless there is some massive fix coming up a real autonomous L4 is more than a decade away. Maybe two. It’s just not even close in any way shape or form. It’s fun to use but absolutely no where even close to being used unsupervised. It’s really just an entertainment feature for now and the foreseeable future.

Same as come to me summons. Cool trick but completely unuseable in the real world.

As Elon says humans are good at observing exponentials.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Damn, did Powell just say something?

 

[GrandEnigma]

Right? That was fun to watch the market drop suddenly. At least we are outperforming all major indices today

 

[Big Time]

JPOW is doing a bang-up job. I’m willing to bet after all of this nonsense about how the public is paying so much more for everything and he’s fighting so hard to avoid entrenchment….. after he crushes everyone’s portfolios, all the retailers will just price gouge and entrench these new prices as the new normal. This is how the rich stay rich and the poor stay poor. Right as people are happy with their jobs and pay, they hike everything up so the poor can go back to being servants because they can’t afford 8 dollar half gallons of milk for little servant jr’s stale maltomeal knockoff cereal. I’m fine I promise

 

[Singuy]

Hmmm. I enjoy using FSD but it is making only tiny incremental improvements. Unless there is some massive fix coming up a real autonomous L4 is more than a decade away. Maybe two. It’s just not even close in any way shape or form. It’s fun to use but absolutely no where even close to being used unsupervised. It’s really just an entertainment feature for now and the foreseeable future.

Same as come to me summons. Cool trick but completely unuseable in the real world.

I have sold a few Tesla's showing off FSD. Wouldn't have dared when I first got it because arriving at a destination with zero disengagement was a pipe dream. Today I can actually go places in medium to low density traffic in the suburbs with a high level of confidence it'll be disengagement free.

Elon said in 2019 "above 0% chance of disengagement free drive". I mean that doesn't sound very promising, however it has improved substantially since those above 0% chance days. See we humans have this problem with incremental improvements or incremental growth. It's like watching your children grow in which everyday it feels like your child is not growing but when a neighbor who haven't seen your kid for a year, they are surprised how much they have grown.

Secretly you have already switched from "wtf was that? I can't believe FSD did that drive with zero disengagements!" to "WTF was that? What a terrible drive! I feel like FSD is regressing". The first sentiment is that all drives are bad, but you were extremely happy at that one awesome drive. The second sentiment is you got used to FSD being kind of reliable, but was super disappointed at that one terrible drive in which it smashed all hopes of FSD being close and now you feel like it's 100 years away from being ready again. Human psychology plays trick on you, but the progress is obvious.

 

[MC3OZ]

Yah. Elon is such a smart and capable guy that has moved things forward in huge ways. But it seems he is completely disconnected from the real world on FSD. He must drive on FSD. He has to know what’s happening. I don’t for a minute think he is a bold faced liar (he’s not an evil guy although I kinda wish he would step down as CEO) so I can’t understand the disconnect he has with FSD. He must know there is no agency on earth that would even consider looking at FSD as any kind of an autonomous system.

Love the company and the products but holy cow they are out to lunch if they think there is any revenue to be made as an autonomous system in the next decade or two.

Jmho.

I find it comical that you think FSD will not be working in 20 years time.

Are you running FSD beta?

Looking at the available videos it seems like reasonable progress is being made. Radar is about to added into the mix, training capability scaling 100X over the next few years.

I am not certain enough to put a timeframe on it, but it seems likely that it will work sometime in the next 3 years.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now that we are past the obligatory 7-day post-event slump, isn't it time for the FOMO floodgates to be opened just a tad?

Gap-filing is the highest calling on Wall St. They're half-way there now.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Do any TMC’ers in Canada have the latest FSD beta release ? I’ve been wearing out my phone screen refreshing my Tesla app hoping it’ll show up, for the last few days.

The latest FSD videos look nice. Was hoping it would’ve helped the SP. Oh well, have placed some more aggressive buy orders, in case this continues.

 

[Singuy]

Do any TMC’ers in Canada have the latest FSD beta release ? I’ve been wearing out my phone screen refreshing my Tesla app hoping it’ll show up, for the last few days.

The latest FSD videos look nice. Was hoping it would’ve helped the SP. Oh well, have placed some more aggressive buy orders, in case this continues.

Elon said needs another round of refinement before wide release.

 

[EVNow]

Nothing wrong with his statement unless you think we are further away from FSD from this update, or zero improvements vs what we have.

We can continue the discussion in the FSD thread - but unless there is a similar video of 10.69 which we can compare to there is nothing in that video to make one think FSD is any "closer to robotaxi". If you see the AP sub-forum ... people are pointing out multiple issues / regressions around skipping red light, stopping in the middle of the road etc.

Single stack is a big change, I'd expect regressions. No big deal ... but talking about V11 and "robotaxi" while posting a painfully slow Costco parking lot video isn't particularly useful in this thread.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I find it comical that you think FSD will not be working in 20 years time.

Are you running FSD beta?

Looking at the available videos it seems like reasonable progress is being made. Radar is about to added into the mix, training capability scaling 100X over the next few years.

I am not certain enough to put a timeframe on it, but it seems likely that it will work sometime in the next 3 years.

Yep. We are running FSD beta. Don’t get me wrong. It’s pretty cool. But if you think about it from a hands off approach it’s not even close. A 10 kilometre ride around town would rack up thousands of dollars of fines and puss off dozens of drivers. And yah 20 years is probably a stretch but I don’t think we’ll see any L4 capability in the next decade based on the tiny incremental improvements we are seeing now.

Again. JMHO.

 

[EVNow]

Is this a troll?

Yes. The only member who is on my ignore list. Specializes in posting "FSD Accident" threads in the AP sub-forum ... with glee.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Elon said needs another round of refinement before wide release.

I wonder how Elon defines wide release. As there’s a bunch of non-employee YouTubers on it.

I could be wrong, but I always thought of “non-wide release” to mean Tesla employees, and wide release to mean the rest of the fleet that has bought FSD, and is in a country where it is legal to use.

 

[Max Plaid]

Funny, you mention that. The perception of FSD in this thread versus over in the more realistic autonomous driving thread? Couldn’t be more different opinions, and perspectives.

But I understand why the Rosy outlook in this thread: Elon himself said that the entire financial future of Tesla rests with the success of FSD.

No he didn't say that, he said the one that solves autonomy first will be the big winner, and although Tesla FSD has some ways to go, there's no-one else remotely close

 

[FSDtester#1]

I wonder how Elon defines wide release. As there’s a bunch of non-employee YouTubers on it.

I could be wrong, but I always thought of “non-wide release” to mean Tesla employees, and wide release to mean the rest of the fleet that has bought FSD, and is in a country where it is legal to use.

The people outside of employees that get it first are the original testers that were pre fsb beta safety score.