Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[GrandEnigma]

Can someone please explain to me how $TSLA has traded between $188 and $190 for the past 2.5 hours???

/s

They hit their EOD target a bit early?

 

[generalenthu]

Off topic fun fact:

˝Often, there is an inverse relationship between precision and recall, where it is possible to increase one at the cost of reducing the other. Brain surgery provides an illustrative example of the tradeoff. Consider a brain surgeon removing a cancerous tumor from a patient's brain. The surgeon needs to remove all of the tumor cells since any remaining cancer cells will regenerate the tumor. Conversely, the surgeon must not remove healthy brain cells since that would leave the patient with impaired brain function. The surgeon may be more liberal in the area of the brain he removes to ensure he has extracted all the cancer cells. This decision increases recall but reduces precision. On the other hand, the surgeon may be more conservative in the brain cells he removes to ensure he extracts only cancer cells. This decision increases precision but reduces recall. That is to say, greater recall increases the chances of removing healthy cells (negative outcome) and increases the chances of removing all cancer cells (positive outcome). Greater precision decreases the chances of removing healthy cells (positive outcome) but also decreases the chances of removing all cancer cells (negative outcome)˝.

This means that a perfect filter is almost impossible. Meaning something that nullify both type I (false positive) and type II (false negative) errors. A perfect search engine, for example, cannot exist. Or a perfect recommendation system. Or, again, a perfect forum thread, which contains only relevant AND very informative posts ;-)

Nice analogy. The (not) funny corollary is the surgeon could remove the whole brain and call it a significant improvement in recall. Of course precision goes for a toss.

I keep wondering what is happening to precision when release notes say recall improved by such and such. I suppose the precision is at least the same or better.

The tradeoff between precision and recall can be nicely plotted and models can choose where to operate along the curve, depending on relative importance of precision vs recall. In the tumor example, recall is more important than precision.

This was a good ruse to look up this curve definition and its more popular cousin, the ROC curve and the AUC, as described here for example.

https://machinelearningmastery.com/roc-curves-and-precision-recall-curves-for-imbalanced-classification/

The reason this is relevant to understand, and this is on topic is, I see people complaining of more phantom braking and tentative driving when a new version drops. Even if the underlying model for instance has improved, it may be tuned to be more 'safe' at the expense of 'smoother driving'. Without then changing the model, it is possible to make the model drive much smoother without materially impacting the safety. Probably the reason why rollouts, especially the wide ones, seem to be a step back, before they improve with no newer updates.

 

[Cosmacelf]

It's strange that Farley is claiming that in two years their new truck will be autonomous enough to let you sleep in it. They dropped their autonomous efforts just a few months ago so where is this tech coming from? VW? I find this very hard to believe.

Edit, I guess they have their new AI company Lattitude but still.

Everyone dumps on Elon for hyperbole and missed targets but no one says anything at all when all these other car companies do the exact same thing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The issue was the TSLA drop-down. I started my home search in late October at ~$300 / share for TSLA and pre-approval was no issue for a large loan. During the next months, TSLA went from $300 -> $100 -> $200 over a 5 month span. The mortgage lender keeps asking for follow-up on my statements on a monthly basis as TSLA fluctuates and continues to lower than mortgage amount.

I have no idea of your situation. However, if your lender won't accept puts as collateral, they are a bad lender. If, however, you won't buy puts to lock in the value of the shares that you own outright (and are not spectulating on the price of shares you don't own dropping), well there's some financial education channels on youtube for you...

 

[enslaved robot]

Can someone please explain to me how $TSLA has traded between $188 and $190 for the past 2.5 hours???

/s

This week has got to be one of the worst examples of painting the tape I've seen in my 5 years as a Tesla investor. One Friday some entity with a ton of money is going to take the other side of these fraudulent trades and put all these MM out of business.

 

[betstarship]

I have no idea of your situation. However, if your lender won't accept puts as collateral, they are a bad lender. If, however, you won't buy puts to lock in the value of the shares that you own outright (and are not spectulating on the price of shares you don't own dropping), well there's some financial education channels on youtube for you...

Originally, Tesla was just a mission-oriented type of investment. That's still there, though it's kinda avalanched into a bigger thing nowadays outside of some diversification.

 

[insaneoctane]

This week has got to be one of the worst examples of painting the tape I've seen in my 5 years as a Tesla investor. One Friday some entity with a ton of money is going to take the other side of these fraudulent trades and put all these MM out of business. inconvenience these thieves momentarily.

FIFY

 

[Nocturnal]

They hit their EOD target a bit early?

View attachment 921007

Would be interesting to see a data set of how often stocks end up close to their max pain level. That sure would make it easy to prove (or disprove I guess) manipulation.

 

[insaneoctane]

This week has got to be one of the worst examples of painting the tape I've seen in my 5 years as a Tesla investor. One Friday some entity with a ton of money is going to take the other side of these fraudulent trades and put all these MM out of business.

Honestly though, it is wearing on me because I loaded up again waaaay too early and it hasn't recovered to those levels yet. It will. It just wears on me mentally because I let it. My mood will improve dramatically with another 50 to 100 points. But, I think retail is mostly tapped out and has been holding, watching the game. The question is how do we get new money into TSLA? Probably just gonna have to wait for the macro. But when the macro has a green day and TSLA has a "match maximum pain day" without even FUD, it's frustrating. Patience and HODL

 

[Singuy]

Everyone dumps on Elon for hyperbole and missed targets but no one says anything at all when all these other car companies do the exact same thing.

Ford just straight up lie. Can you imagine the sugar CNBS would give Elon if Tesla released yesterday's EV report with -40% margins? I would be getting class action lawsuit emails.

https://fordauthority.com/2021/09/2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-program-is-already-profitable/

 

[Zero CO2]

Honestly though, it is wearing on me because I loaded up again waaaay too early and it hasn't recovered to those levels yet. It will. It just wears on me mentally because I let it. My mood will improve dramatically with another 50 to 100 points. But, I think retail is mostly tapped out and has been holding, watching the game. The question is how do we get new money into TSLA? Probably just gonna have to wait for the macro. But when the macro has a green day and TSLA has a "match maximum pain day" without even FUD, it's frustrating. Patience and HODL

if it was easy everyone would do it ...HODL

 

[hobbes]

Tesla rents a ferry to get Model 3 to Sweden from Zeebrugge

Schiff-Knappheit: Tesla mietet laut Bericht Passagier-Fähre für Transporte nach Schweden

Erneut bahnt sich eine Welle von Tesla-Auslieferungen kurz vor Quartalsende an – jetzt auch mit einer Fähre, die sonst Passagiere befördert.

teslamag-de.translate.goog

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ford just straight up lie. Can you imagine the sugar CNBS would give Elon if Tesla released yesterday's EV report with -40% margins? I would be getting class action lawsuit emails.

https://fordauthority.com/2021/09/2021-ford-mustang-mach-e-program-is-already-profitable/

I think that Ford email was sent before $70k/ton lithium and $5,900 discounts on Mach E. So they may have had a profitable product briefly, but not currently.

 

[Mengy]

Maybe Ford is planning to license FSD from Tesla.

Everyone laughs, but that would honestly be an excellent strategy for Ford.

 

[Singuy]

I think that Ford email was sent before $70k/ton lithium and $5,900 discounts on Mach E. So they may have had a profitable product briefly, but not currently.

Shouldn't they be mostly insulated from the lithium price spike because it's LG that makes the long term negotiated contracts and are not subjected to day to day movements?

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

The only way Ford will have FSD before Tesla, is if they change the acronym to mean Ford Sometimes Driveable.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

The only way Ford will have FSD before Tesla, is if they change the acronym to mean Ford Sometimes Driveable.

I like FORD better - Found On Road Dead

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shouldn't they be mostly insulated from the lithium price spike because it's LG that makes the long term negotiated contracts and are not subjected to day to day movements?

Not even Tesla was insulated from the lithium price spike, and they go out of their way to secure long-term contracts. That's another reason Tesla is moving down the lithium supply chain, first with refining Li-OH at Corpus Christi, and mining Lithium spodumen themselves if necessary. The price spike was speculators profiteering from the PR; the demand did not support such a drastic price spike. Coming down the mountain now:

Chinese lithium price dives in heated auto price war | Reuters

 

[jerry33]

Everyone dumps on Elon for hyperbole and missed targets but no one says anything at all when all these other car companies do the exact same thing.

I suspect that's because the other car companies have cried wolf so often that they are just ignored (after they get the initial SP boost)

 

[insaneoctane]

Video of non-USS Tesla vision:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1639117150651547649