Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Sure, there are bad times to buy and sell just like with any product.

The problem with the "price cuts" argument is that Tesla is keeping the $$$ for themselves while other manufacturers are just giving away money to the dealers with ADM (additional dealer markup). It is simple economics, supply and demand and Tesla is capitalizing on it, can't blame them for that. Even with the market forces Tesla's still maintain a high resale value compared to other vehicles.

I'm not complaining, being invested long in $TSLA has reaped me many multiples my investment. Heck, we even paid full price for a SR M3 without any tax rebates and without any price cuts. Just my small contribution to last quarters bottom line

 

[Unpilot]

Post with zero content

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm not complaining, being invested long in $TSLA has reaped me many multiples my investment. Heck, we even paid full price for a SR M3 without any tax rebates and without any price cuts. Just my small contribution to last quarters bottom line

Not all Tesla owners are TSLA owners....they may not have the same willingness to overlook the significant impact to their vehicles value that the price reductions have created.

Ironically, it's because Tesla doesn't have a greedy, unscrupulous dealer network....rather they are completely transparent with their prices that allows people to be upset! Dealerships manipulate end pricing on all buyers and they do it every. Single. Day. But since there's no transparency, most don't realizes it.

 

[Dutchie]

Behind paywall:
Subscribe to read | Financial Times

View attachment 927158
Could advertising help with any of these?
Need for Tesla Advertising / PR

“Does not align with values”. That‘s an odd choice to give in a survey.

 

[Hiline]

The other factor that isn't included is resale value. Tesla's have consistently had excellent resale value.

I don't think so. As new Tesla vehicles become cheaper, resale value will continue to drop. A Model Y somebody got for $55k earlier this year may re-sell for $30k in 2 years if the price of a new Model Y drops to $40k by then. The buyers who enjoyed excellent resale value are those who purchased before mid-2021.

 

[AndrewZ]

I don't think so. As new Tesla vehicles become cheaper, resale value will continue to drop. A Model Y somebody got for $55k earlier this year may re-sell for $30k in 2 years if the price of a new Model Y drops to $40k by then. The buyers who enjoyed excellent resale value are those who purchased before mid-2021.

Yeah I think production numbers impacting supply balance impacting pricing is the biggest factor here. Low supply supports value retention and brands focused on value retention will intentionally throttle output to retain value or even increase it over time, but Tesla's goal is to produce to the tune of 10m-20m per year with a pretty limited range of models and trims because lineup (and general) complexity increases cost.

You can see this in used car price trends, the gap has closed big time as production of the 3/Y lineup in particular has massively increased

Used Car Price Trends - CarGurus Pricing Index

Stay on top of used car price trends and get real-time industry-leading market insights.

www.cargurus.com

 

[Hiline]

Yeah I think production numbers impacting supply balance impacting pricing is the biggest factor here. Low supply supports value retention and brands focused on value retention will intentionally throttle output to retain value or even increase it over time, but Tesla's goal is to produce to the tune of 10m-20m per year with a pretty limited range of models and trims because lineup (and general) complexity increases cost.

You can see this in used car price trends, the gap has closed big time as production of the 3/Y lineup in particular has massively increased

View attachment 927192

Used Car Price Trends - CarGurus Pricing Index

Stay on top of used car price trends and get real-time industry-leading market insights.

www.cargurus.com

And resale value of Teslas will continue to plummet until new Tesla prices flat-line. Like it or not, now is not a good time to buy a Tesla if you place a lot of weight on resale value. And consumers are going to expect Tesla prices to come down further and therefore hold off on buying a Tesla. This is a problem that Tesla needs to address.

 

[samppa]

I plan to keep my Model Y for the next 10 years or longer.. I've had it for about 2 years now.. with all software updates I just don't see a reason to update to a newer one..

So resale value doesn't mean much to me.

 

[AndrewZ]

I plan to keep my Model Y for the next 10 years or longer.. I've had it for about 2 years now.. with all software updates I just don't see a reason to update to a newer one..

So resale value doesn't mean much to me.

Very much the same here, I buy vehicles to drive them into the ground even before OTA updates were a thing

 

[growler23]

I plan to keep my Model Y for the next 10 years or longer.. I've had it for about 2 years now.. with all software updates I just don't see a reason to update to a newer one..

So resale value doesn't mean much to me.

We're in a interesting situation with resale. My partner wanted a Toyota RAV4 Prime (PHEV), but they made so few that the wait is long (6 months to a year?) and uncertain. To drive in the meantime, she got a nice 2022 Model Y (at end of 2022 'discount', 20% more pricey than today). As many times as I tell her that the extra $10k+ that she spent on the Y is going to a company that is doing the best against climate change, she is not real thrilled.
We won't try to sell a Model Y (we would sell my 'old' 2021 one, and move me up to the 2022) until either the RAV4 Prime comes in, or until I finally convince her that sticking with all electric is best.
No idea but my best guess is resale prices will continue to drop as Austin and Berlin continue to flood the market with an absolute horde of Model Y.

Spoiler: Reasoning on the RAV4

One of the reasons she wants the Rav4 is for the higher clearance; sometimes we go hiking in remote places, and the Y would not cut it for that reason. Also, the yearly Big Bend trip does require extra planning (130+ miles from any Superchargers) so we _might_ take it there.
Looking forward to a higher clearance Tesla option sometime. Cybertruck would do it of course but CT seems like massive overkill for us and for that reason I never reserved, so I'd be last in line now anyway, and still not convinced of the need.
I mean it's Texas, so apparently a truck is always justified, but I'm just not there at this point.

 

[Ogre]

I hope that data is incorrect, we heard 38 delivered more than a month ago.

Tesla has never delivered vehicles this soon in their production. Very much get the impression these are to make Pepsi happy while Tesla continues producing in small volume for internal use.

Commercial sales probably won’t start again until the volume production line is up at Giga Nevada.

 

[Ogre]

We're in a interesting situation with resale. My partner wanted a Toyota RAV4 Prime (PHEV), but they made so few that the wait is long (6 months to a year?) and uncertain. To drive in the meantime, she got a nice 2022 Model Y (at end of 2022 'discount', 20% more pricey than today). As many times as I tell her that the extra $10k+ that she spent on the Y is going to a company that is doing the best against climate change, she is not real thrilled.
We won't try to sell a Model Y (we would sell my 'old' 2021 one, and move me up to the 2022) until either the RAV4 Prime comes in, or until I finally convince her that sticking with all electric is best.
No idea but my best guess is resale prices will continue to drop as Austin and Berlin continue to flood the market with an absolute horde of Model Y.

Spoiler: Reasoning on the RAV4

One of the reasons she wants the Rav4 is for the higher clearance; sometimes we go hiking in remote places, and the Y would not cut it for that reason. Also, the yearly Big Bend trip does require extra planning (130+ miles from any Superchargers) so we _might_ take it there.
Looking forward to a higher clearance Tesla option sometime. Cybertruck would do it of course but CT seems like massive overkill for us and for that reason I never reserved, so I'd be last in line now anyway, and still not convinced of the need.
I mean it's Texas, so apparently a truck is always justified, but I'm just not there at this point.

Have the exact same concerns about the Model Y as you. My solution is Cybertruck, but totally hear you.

 

[Ogre]

Why is Musk so confident about Burnt Hair coming soon?

Seems like it won’t be auto, the whole auto side of the story is fairly tightly bound. There might be a small upside surprise, but certainly volume or revenue are pretty well known.


Possibly margins on auto are going to crush? With Berlin and Austin in full swing and raw materials pricing down, may be a surprise with margins.

My other thought here is this is the quarter when Energy finally blooms?

Edit. Or more likely, like with most Tesla Kremlinology, Burnt Hair is just literally a weird perfume/ scent idea and there is no catalyst coming soon.

 

[Olle]

The other factor that isn't included is resale value. Tesla's have consistently had excellent resale value.

Tried to shop for what in my mind was going to be a cheap beater M3 for daughter's learner permit. Oh boy was I mistaken.

The cheapest non salvage M3 that I found in all of the US is this one:

$26000. A new one is

-$7500=$34490. Six years old, 110k miles and worth over 75% of what a new one costs. Naturally they have dropped more from the 2017 introductory pricing as well as last year's peak. But if you use today's price as a baseline, the resale value is absolutely astounding.

The $ that could have gone into advertising instead went into building a superior product and it shows in the demand still six years later. The superiority year by year over used and new competitors remind drivers and riders every day. How many of the competitors' ad campaigns from 2017 are still at work getting replayed everyday in 2023?

As a shareholder I like this.

 

[Cobbler]

My assumption is that it's sitting there in a warehouse, waiting to be shipped at the best moment

The question is, what will be the catalyst...?

what, I don't know.
When:
4/19 Financial results $TSLA
4/20 StarShip launch SpaceX
4/20 Twitter removal legacy Bluechecks.
4/20: I believe Cybertruck will progress from Tooling to Pilot production

Elon - aka MemeGod - wants 4/20 to be very special

 

[wipster]

Why is Musk so confident about Burnt Hair coming soon?

Seems like it won’t be auto, the whole auto side of the story is fairly tightly bound. There might be a small upside surprise, but certainly volume or revenue are pretty well known.


Possibly margins on auto are going to crush? With Berlin and Austin in full swing and raw materials pricing down, may be a surprise with margins.

My other thought here is this is the quarter when Energy finally blooms?

Edit. Or more likely, like with most Tesla Kremlinology, Burnt Hair is just literally a weird perfume/ scent idea and there is no catalyst coming soon.

I sure hope it doesn't smell like burnt hair though... especially when you get it wet. Horrible smell.

 

[Hiline]

Tried to shop for what in my mind was going to be a cheap beater M3 for daughter's learner permit. Oh boy was I mistaken.

The cheapest non salvage M3 that I found in all of the US is this one:View attachment 927194 $26000. A new one is View attachment 927196-$7500=$34490. Six years old, 110k miles and worth over 75% of what a new one costs. Naturally they have dropped more from the 2017 introductory pricing as well as last year's peak. But if you use today's price as a baseline, the resale value is absolutely astounding.

The $ that could have gone into advertising instead went into building a superior product and it shows in the demand still six years later. The superiority year by year over used and new competitors remind drivers and riders every day. How many the competitors' ad campaigns from 2017 are still at work getting replayed everyday in 2023?

As a shareholder I like this.

$25k is about the bottom price for a Model 3 at this moment. There aren't many used Model 3 units for sale because there simply haven't been that many produced. Give it another year of production and you'll see a very different picture.

This would be a much better deal for you and your daughter: 2018 Mid-Range with 30k miles and Enhanced Autopilot, listed for $28k OBO FS - 2018 Tesla Model 3 Mid Range

 

[AndrewZ]

A used Model 3 at $25k and more than two years old theoretically can qualify for the $4000 Used EV tax credit also in the IRA, think that would be a fairer comparison if $7500 is being subtracted from the current price of a new one

Also need to consider options and such, or what credits might have been available in 2017

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla (TSLA) Remains Baird's 'best pick' Following Price Cuts & Megafactory Announcement

Baird reaffirmed Tesla's Overweight rating and $252.00 price target. The firm also confirms that the company remains its "best pick" after it announced another round of price cuts and the construction of a Megapack factory in China.

www.tesmanian.com

TLDR: "Baird reaffirms Tesla's Overweight rating and $252.00 price target. The firm also confirms that the company remains its “best pick” after it announced another round of price cuts and the construction of a Megapack factory in China."

 

[Hiline]

A used Model 3 at $25k and more than two years old theoretically can qualify for the $4000 Used EV tax credit also in the IRA, think that would be a fairer comparison if $7500 is being subtracted from the current price of a new one

Also need to consider options and such, or what credits might have been available in 2017

Good point. The used EV tax credit may explain why there isn't a single Tesla selling for $25k or lower - they have all been snapped up.