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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Musk still shows respect for Ford.

It’s funny, as much of a reputation he has for being impulsive about what he says, Musk seems to generally be respectful of competitors. Even his comments about Rivian and Lucid have been more along the lines of pointing out what they need to fix rather than trash talking.

 
What do you mean by dumb cruise - you get even basic adaptive cruise control for free, what else do you want. It allows you to set the speed on the steering wheel and sticks to it, doesnt try to switch lanes for you, doesnt even try to keep you in the lane unless you double clicked it to activate auto steering to follow the road.

Do you have a problem with it not bumping into the car in front of you in case you are not paying attention?
I'm willing to give that up in return for it not randomly hitting the brakes for no reason.
 
Musk still shows respect for Ford.

It’s funny, as much of a reputation he has for being impulsive about what he says, Musk seems to generally be respectful of competitors. Even his comments about Rivian and Lucid have been more along the lines of pointing out what they need to fix rather than trash talking.

His derision is mostly with the lying gaslighting media and WS scums.
 
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I think my perspective is most effectively illustrated by the product adoption curve. There is no doubt in my mind that the first Model S is a superior product to the first Mach E, etc. However, I am quite biased as a Tesla driver and investor. When trying to remove my own biases, I acknowledge that both EV flagships have their pros and cons. The original Model S had many build quality issues but was amazing at acceleration. The first Tesla ride I got was unforgettable. However, Tesla also benefited from the so-called 'innovators' - or super early adopters. There were electric car enthusiasts that were willing to shell out 100k for the Model S because there was nothing like it in the market. Tesla was selling these in small numbers, as Cosmacelf noted. And in selling these in a market of 'innovators' without competition, Tesla was able to generate profit. I didn't even bring up the early days of federal credit for EV manufacturing along with other unique external advantages Tesla had back in the days.

All newer entrants have this huge incumbent in Tesla, and the EV market has run out of 'innovators', and probably close to running out of early adopters. They need to target the early majority, just like Tesla does. The fact that Ford is losing money on their Mach E right now speaks little of their potential for success. They have very few of the advantages that Tesla did 10 years ago, and the product adoption curve doesn't favor them. However, given sufficient scale, Ford, GM, and the likes can turn a profit. You can disagree with this conclusion by pointing out that Tesla is always going to be cheaper, etc., but saying that Ford has already lost the battle just because they're not making profit on their EVs while Tesla did 10 years ago is quite a naive view.
It's true that the market dynamics are very different now than in 2013 and your point is good that we need more nuance in comparisons of Ford today to Tesla in 2013. However, it's not a given that Ford, GM and the likes can reach sufficient scale at price points that earn positive gross profits to be able to turn a net profit on EVs. Ford seems to have a better chance than anyone, and even for them it's not guaranteed.

Tesla's low cost structure enables them to keep cutting prices and trash the demand for vehicles from competitors. We're already seeing the effect recently, but this was just with the legacy 3&Y platform (which legacy auto still has no real answer for). Gen 3 costs will be a huge step change forward from 3&Y. With Gen 3, Tesla will have gigacastings, unboxed assembly, 4680s, 100% custom electronics + firmware + software, true structural battery pack, tight charging network integration, 48V low-voltage architecture, no dealerships, and more. Any one of these items would be a substantial cost advantage, but Tesla has them all and nobody else has even one. As we look ahead at the upcoming mass-market vehicles, when Tesla is delivering superior products that also have a $10-25k cost advantage, that's going to be very difficult for competitors who need to sell millions of cars to be profitable.

On top of this possibly insurmountable unit cost advantage, Tesla also will likely have the best economies of scale, due to selling the most cars while also maintaining the most efficient OpEx in the industry.
 
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All the clues are pointing to this 3LR being the Highland refresh.
The regular LR has been popping up in inventory here and there and all the specs were the same. If this is the same car they can just continue where they left off.
This new LR has different specs as far as range and also it’s not yet certified by EPA. And battery not approved for rebate by IRS.

Also no reason why first delivery is in June and not this month. No backlog of orders yet…
Please excuse me for disagreeing. But I have to since it can be counterproductive to come up with rumors which potentially induce an osbourne effect. And in this case I would say it is unlikely this rumor turns out to be true. The important differerence to the old, discontiued Model 3 LR are obviously the batteries, which are likely of Chinese origin due to the reduced tax benefit.

What we are observing, is that Tesla wants to max out the IRA-Benefits and taking the lions share of it (which hurts the competition). First, the rumored 9000 made in China Model 3’s and Model Y for Canada in Q2 (the 1st RO-RO ship has now sailed), and now the use of Chinese Batteries for Model 3’s produced in Fremont do fit in this story. The new US Model 3 LR has the same weight, the same acceleration and the same changing rate as the Made in China Model 3 LR, which is also sold in Europe. This suggests 2170 Batteries from LG as with the MiG Model 3 LR.

What we don’t know yet, is if this change involves a capacity increase at the Fremont plant for the Model 3. It is possible that this is only a shift from the Model 3 with LFP Batteries with to the Model 3 LR.

My impression is that Tesla is behaving very smart and agile with these changes and in most cases chooses the best possible strategy considering the constraints.
 
View attachment 934166

I think my perspective is most effectively illustrated by the product adoption curve. There is no doubt in my mind that the first Model S is a superior product to the first Mach E, etc. However, I am quite biased as a Tesla driver and investor. When trying to remove my own biases, I acknowledge that both EV flagships have their pros and cons. The original Model S had many build quality issues but was amazing at acceleration. The first Tesla ride I got was unforgettable. However, Tesla also benefited from the so-called 'innovators' - or super early adopters. There were electric car enthusiasts that were willing to shell out 100k for the Model S because there was nothing like it in the market. Tesla was selling these in small numbers, as Cosmacelf noted. And in selling these in a market of 'innovators' without competition, Tesla was able to generate profit. I didn't even bring up the early days of federal credit for EV manufacturing along with other unique external advantages Tesla had back in the days.

All newer entrants have this huge incumbent in Tesla, and the EV market has run out of 'innovators', and probably close to running out of early adopters. They need to target the early majority, just like Tesla does. The fact that Ford is losing money on their Mach E right now speaks little of their potential for success. They have very few of the advantages that Tesla did 10 years ago, and the product adoption curve doesn't favor them. However, given sufficient scale, Ford, GM, and the likes can turn a profit. You can disagree with this conclusion by pointing out that Tesla is always going to be cheaper, etc., but saying that Ford has already lost the battle just because they're not making profit on their EVs while Tesla did 10 years ago is quite a naive view.
10 years ago Tesla was fighting a bigger battle of FUD!? They had less advantages, suppliers laughed and they had to make their own supply chains. EVs were just niche and not gonna be around for long in most imbecilic opinions. The center touch screen was a big bad thing back then -now? Everyone is going that direction!
I spent 1 year income for a ‘12 P85. Utility of the vehicle made it worth it.(even now it’s worth more in parts to me than I’d ever sell it fo.
But only got a ‘smart’ phone around 2018
 

I honestly think this hurts the UAW more than Biden. With EVs, the labor force for building cars is dwindling. That makes the UAW less and less relevant every passing year. That horse has left the barn and is not coming back.

Good riddance, the UAW is a cancer on this country and is the primary reason for the downfall of the auto industry here (sans Tesla).
 
Tesla had positive margins on the Model S from the beginning. Ford has negative 102% margins almost 3 years after starting production of the Mach-e. This should tell an investor everything they need to know.
Tesla had positive GROSS margins from the beginning.

the -102% Ford margin you’re quoting, is a NET margin.

These two things are in no way the sane metric!
 
Cueing software would reduce a lot of potential for altercations, and make for a better overall experience.

For example:

When multiple cars arrive and all the stalls are full, cars could hit an “arrived” button on their MCU, and the Supercharger would indicate to all other “arrived” and waiting cars as to who was next, and could lock out the supercharger from working on any car, but the one that was supposed to proceed next; unless that car leaves, or waves their right fit some reason.

Please feel free to tweet this to Elon if you’re a Twitter poster / user.
 
Maybe it would be worth while to actually show him how much range he can get with just ten minutes of charging at a super charger?

I've been telling people the LFPs are good for a million miles and the Li batteries are "good for around 250K". Am I wrong?
You are wrong for calling one LFP and the other Li.

The L in LFP stands for Li.

You need to be thinking NCA or NMC instead of Li because LFP are lithium ion batteries, and NCA are lithium ion batteries, and NMC are lithium ion batteries and so on, see Analysis of Electrodes of Lithium-ion Cells • EVreporter

As to how long they will last that's another issue...