Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mickle]

In other words, the Delaware judge is not interested in how shareholders vote, even after being made aware of the personal connections that she objected to in the first place. She is bound and determined to "protect" the shareholders from themselves, no matter how they vote and what they think. Ridiculously large sums of money are to be given to the attorneys, even if they don't save their "clients" a dime. Lovely.

Why doesn't Tesla just move the shareholder vote to June 6?

 

[MC3OZ]

This quote form Elon on X is interesting:-

Tesla will spend $10B this year on training and inference AI.

Inference is the cars and if we assume 3 Million cars and $1,000 per FSD computer , we get $3B which is probably on the high side.

So at least $7B on additional AI training compute.

I am assuming the amount citied is just hardware.

 

[SPadival]

Has this been posted? Future FSD partner

Source: Teslarati.com

 

[Thekiwi]

lol, some humour as the elon layoff machine hits The Onion:

Tesla Lays Off Entire Team Behind Brakes

AUSTIN, TX—In the latest round of layoffs for the company’s struggling automotive division, electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla fired the entire team behind brakes, sources confirmed Wednesday. “As we continue to rightsize the Tesla workforce, we have come to the decision that stopping the car...

www.theonion.com

 

[mongo]

Yes, but Elon has now confirmed the unboxed line is 100% only for Robotaxi's.

You are mis-stating what Elon said. He said they will continue with the unboxed method for Robotaxis. i.e. in the interim, they will use the existing assembly lines & some next gen processes for the new vehicles (note plural) until the unbox method is production ready.

That is not what Elon nor Tesla said, they never used the word "interim". You are assuming that.

You are misunderstanding what @SPadival wrote. Interim referred to the time period before unboxed where Tesla makes other models on existing lines. The Robotaxi will not roll out until unboxed is working, but that does not mean unboxed will only be used for Robotaxi.
Robotaxi is only made on unboxed
Unboxed can make more than just Robotaxi

To be clear- Tesla must file their response to the plaintiffs motion about fair compensation for the court case by June 7.

Further- on June 26- weeks after the vote- both parties have the opportunity to file a proposed Order and Final Judgment, either joint or disputed (almost certainly will be disputed).

This is not an appeal or an opportunity to change the decision of the court about the actual case results.

As MP3Mike points out, that comes later when (or if) Tesla files an appeal to the Delaware supreme court. An appeal that would obviously happen well after the shareholder vote.

Right, but if the shareholders reapproved the comp plan (the defeat of which was the entire point of the lawsuit) that seems a strong basis to indicate the lawsuit had zero value add to the shareholders and thus is worth somewhere between zero and a negative number.

I literally cited Elon Musk telling you superchargers are designed to run at a 30% gross margin and 10% net profit.

You literally sited that that was the aim, which may or may not match reality, "We aim for 30% GM or ~10% profitability, all costs included"

This quote form Elon on X is interesting:-


Inference is the cars and if we assume 3 Million cars and $1,000 per FSD computer , we get $3B which is probably on the high side.

So at least $7B on additional AI training compute.

I am assuming the amount citied is just hardware.

Inference likely also includes the custom Tesla chip development. FSD HW 5, 6, 7...
Elon has said previously most R&D cost was FSD and R&D was around $3k per car in 2022.
2023 saw $4B in R&D
10-K: "R&D expenses increased $894 million, or 29%, in the year ended December 31, 2023 as compared to the year ended December 31, 2022. The overall increase was primarily driven by additional costs in the current year related to the pre-production phase for Cybertruck, AI and other programs."

 

[alexxs88]

Most profitable...In their respective industries (Auto and Space are typically very difficult industries to turn a profit):

Tesla Auto is technically #2 behind Ferarri

Ferrari and Tesla, the world’s most profitable carmakers

My annual financial results analysis for the majority of Western OEMs and some big Chinese showed interesting results for the fiscal year between January and December 2022. This analysis includes t…

fiatgroupworld.com

Tesla Energy is currently enjoying some of the highest margins industrywide...and growing.

ULA only had $80M in profits last year compared to $650M in 2016. Their profits are trending to zero. Space X turned an operating profit of $3B in 2023...and growing.

Why would you use a news article that's a year old, with data that's almost a year and a half old when we have the data from the latest quarterly report? Tesla's operating margin is 5%. That's in line with other car manufacturers and nothing special. Also you specifically said "in absolute terms" which normally mean actual sums, not as a percentage of revenue.

Agreed on SpaceX.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon liked this from K10

 

[Artful Dodger]

In other words, the Delaware judge is not interested in how shareholders vote, even after being made aware of the personal connections that she objected to in the first place. She is bound and determined to "protect" the shareholders from themselves, no matter how they vote and what they think. Ridiculously large sums of money are to be given to the attorneys, even if they don't save their "clients" a dime. Lovely.

In my opinion, another important date to watch for is September 8th, 2024. That is the closing date for Democratic Senate nominations in the state of Delaware. I expect Chancellor McCormick will throw her hat in the ring for US senator as a hero of the people. I further expect her to advocate for the billionaire tax on unrealized capital gains.

 

[cliff harris]

Its funny how this thread always gets super-obsessed over the latest thing, and forgets everything else going on. Right now all the talk is about supercharger teams being let go, before that it was about FSD in china. Before that it was robotaxi reveal date.
Tesla is a big sprawling company doing a ton of things at once. We obsess over things we don't have full information on, or that are controversial.
Meanwhile:

• Megapack production seems to continue to be awesome, and likely is benefiting from a serious drop in cell prices.
• Cybertruck production is still churning away, and the 'accelerator pedal' 'recall' is behind us.
• FSD 12.3.6 is now in customers hands. Reviews are very very good.
• We are about at the point where a lot of FSD trial subscriptions run out?
• Semi factory is being built, China megapack factory was announced recently I think?
• We have no idea what progress is happening quietly on the Tesla bot.

Lots of good stuff is happening with Tesla that we ignore, because we like to argue about the latest thing. Also, its worth following AJ on twitter. (https://twitter.com/alojoh) He posts a ton of very informed analysis of rival car companies, and lets just say that all of them are having an absolutely disastrous few months, making Tesla look amazing in comparison.
Roll on Q2.

 

[CitizenKane]

It will be interesting to see what happens now that FSD trial is over. Reading in this thread it seems FSD is a stunning success but when I check out other threads that specifically deal with FSD experiences, the picture is much more mixed, AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

 

[aubreymcfato]

FWIW, right now, Europe sales are either on par with 2023 or slightly better. I mean YoY over four months.
We'll see what happens with UK and Germany, those will "disappoint", the question is how much.

 

[unk45]

There is one other important thing that I think is in play here, that you haven’t mentioned.
Age.
What is the average age of people here in this thread?
I am from a generation of which most people value owning a car.
My guess is that the same applies for a lot of people here.

But if I consider younger people, that is not so much the case.
What I hear from my children and other young people, is that they do not put as much value on car ownership as I do.
It’s likely a pitfall to think the next generations will value car ownership over facilitated easy and cheap sustainable transport.
And that makes in my opinion the robotaxi case stronger.

The factual support is visible in a basic statistic, percentage of adults who have driving licenses:

Infographic: Americans Get Driver's Licenses Later in Life

This chart shows the percentage of the U.S. population holding a driver's license, by age group (1983, 2008, 2018).

www.statista.com

I have not searched for equivalent data for countries other than the US. My anecdotal evidence confirms that thesis in Brazil, UK and France, in all three of which ~40 year old children if my peers do not drive at all. Every one of their parents do. Even more of them do not own cars and get around by Uber and competitors, mostly not using traditional taxis.

If it matters for this support we can easily search for other countries too. Maybe I have been too pessimistic about Robitaxi.

 

[NicoV]

Also, its worth following AJ on twitter. (https://twitter.com/alojoh) He posts a ton of very informed analysis of rival car companies, and lets just say that all of them are having an absolutely disastrous few months, making Tesla look amazing in comparison.

Yes, AJ is absolutely a must-follow on X.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Yes, AJ is absolutely a must-follow on X.

He is but I recall an attack to @piloly a few months ago, and he was wrong. They are a bit on the sensationalistic side.

 

[jerry33]

But if I consider younger people, that is not so much the case.
What I hear from my children and other young people, is that they do not put as much value on car ownership as I do.
It’s likely a pitfall to think the next generations will value car ownership over facilitated easy and cheap sustainable transport.
And that makes in my opinion the robotaxi case stronger.

I believe some of that attitude is sour grapes. Many young people still live with their parents because they can't find a good job. I suspect many of those who have a good job purchase cars.

 

[CitizenKane]

https://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+N...arts+Tesla+(TSLA)+at+Overweight/23159021.html Price target 230 USD

 

[Musskiah]

Why would you use a news article that's a year old, with data that's almost a year and a half old when we have the data from the latest quarterly report? Tesla's operating margin is 5%. That's in line with other car manufacturers and nothing special. Also you specifically said "in absolute terms" which normally mean actual sums, not as a percentage of revenue.

Listen buckaroo, I don't think it's wise to argue against Tesla's (absolute) profitability on a per-vehicle basis - it is nothing short of astounding. No other EV is even in the same solar system of profitability in absolute terms. Most other gas vehicles aren't either, the exception being MB, BMW, Stellantis, and scarce sports/hypercars (which is why Ferrari isn't really a fair comparison). Tesla's profit margin per car in 2023 was $8,279, compared to $9580 in 2022, over $6000 in 2021. Let's not try to argue that these aren't fat, fat margins.

Agreed on SpaceX.

Glad to find we agree on my original point, that Elon's companies typically enjoy incredible profitability in their respective industries. Do we agree on Tesla Energy being profitable, or do we need to go to school on that one?

 

[nativewolf]

I don't think it's wise to argue against Tesla's (absolute) profitability on a per-vehicle basis - it is nothing short of astounding. No other EV is even in the same solar system of profitability in absolute terms. Most other gas vehicles aren't either, the exception being MB, BMW, Stellantis, and scarce sports/hypercars (which is why Ferrari isn't really a fair comparison). Tesla's profit margin per car in 2023 was $8,279, compared to $9580 in 2022, over $6000 in 2021. Let's not try to argue that these aren't fat, fat margins.

Why? The very fact that you want to put off an examination of the profitability of something makes me ...want to question that in great detail.

 

[alexxs88]

Listen buckaroo, I don't think it's wise to argue that Tesla's (absolute) profitability on a per-vehicle basis is nothing short of astounding. No other EV is even in the same solar system of profitability in absolute terms. Most other gas vehicles aren't either, certainly no mass production car company (which is why Ferrari isn't really a fair comparison).

That's incorrect. Tesla's operating margin is at 5% right now. GM is at 6.9% (that's certainly a mass production car company, isn't it?), VW is at 6.1%, Toyota is at 9%. Unfortunately the data on which you're basing the assumptions is a couple of years old.

I also don't see how dropping the manufacturing volumes will help with margins, as the COGs/unit will just get higher.

 

[Musskiah]

That's incorrect. Tesla's operating margin is at 5% right now. GM is at 6.9% (that's certainly a mass production car company, isn't it?), VW is at 6.1%, Toyota is at 9%. Unfortunately the data on which you're basing the assumptions is a couple of years old.

What's incorrect? The incredibly consistent absolute profit per vehicle I presented for years 2021, 2022, and 2023?

Using a single Q or two isn't very accurate, but it is useful when you want to cherry pick a single outlier (as you have done with 5%). You want to talk operating margin? Here...

Operating Margin TTM 14.35%. At the end of 2022 the company had an Operating Margin of 17.08%, for comparison.

As we can all see, BMW and MB are the only mass production companies that are essentially sharing the top spot with TSLA by this measure.

Top automakers by operating margin

companiesmarketcap.com

I also don't see how dropping the manufacturing volumes will help with margins, as the COGs/unit will just get higher.

You don't understand what's actually happening then. Tesla is not dropping volumes. What did they tell us in the call? That they are utilizing existing capacity at their existing factories to increase volume through new vehicles, thus decreasing COGS, and likely propelling margins higher.