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Price is not a function of demand alone. It's a function of both supply and demand, which are sloped curves with respect to price and quantity. Increasing the supply, like Tesla was doing as Berlin and Austin came online, will always reduce equilibrium price. It's really basic economics: And...

Elon has set ambitious targets that he's failed to meet before (see Solar Roof, numerous autonomy milestones, etc.), but I find that more often it's other people lying about or distorting things Elon has said, rather than the other way around. Do you have any evidence of Elon saying something...

He said 61-63 MPH in a previous response: It is hard to imagine someone with the authority to set speed limits deciding that 55 MPH is appropriate for that road.

The real questions to me would be: 1. Does FSD make drivers more or less attentive than they would be without it? 2. Is an inattentive driver driving manually more or less likely than an inattentive driver on FSD to cause a collision? I know automation complacency is a well studied phenomenon...

I put more faith in a vague reply than poorly documented data. I made a couple of posts about it on the main investor thread, you can see my thoughts on the modeling that likely went into the Yipit data here: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable tl;dr is that...

Not necessarily. Humanoid robots that use AI for understanding and navigating the world don't pose any more of a risk than FSD using cameras to navigate a road. And Tesla is already on a track for both of those products to use AI in a responsible way. But if Elon doesn't have a good grip on the...

You're taking that out of context. Elon does not want to contribute to products that can constitute an "existential AI risk" at Tesla without more control. None of Tesla's current products pose that risk, so the compensation package doesn't affect Elon's ability to deliver on FSD. And I agree...

I get the sentiment of the meme, but "Only in lighting" is misleading. For anyone with a car built after 2021, they have the infrared lights which should allow the system to work in any lighting conditions. For the rest of us, the light from the center screen is usually sufficient for the...

There are some small, but significant changes to the ways in which those two features will work in 12.4. On the vision-based attention monitoring, you no longer need to be holding the steering wheel as long as: the camera is not occluded there is sufficient lighting the driver is looking...

It's an unfortunate but probably necessary requirement as long as FSD is L2 supervised. When the idea of removing the wheel-torque attention sensor for the cabin camera was first mentioned, Reddit was flooded with comments like "Sweet. I'll just wear dark sunglasses and take a nap." FSD is...

Sounds like it, yes. Also small change to the strike-out system, with them automatically expiring after a week:

There are details in the linked article: "the camera is not occluded, there is sufficient cabin illumination, and the driver is looking forward at the road ahead and not wearing sunglasses, a hat with a low brim, or other objects covering the eyes"

FSD Supervised V12.4 is officially hands-free (given the camera is not occluded, there is sufficient cabin illumination, and the driver is looking forward at the road ahead and not wearing sunglasses, a hat with a low brim, or other objects covering the eyes):

Confirmation of v12.4 rolling out to employees:

It is strange that Tesla didn't copy-edit the article for correctness before publishing, given it sounds like they arranged the test drive. But I could see Johnson being shown "there's 2 cameras here, one here, one here, one on the trunk" and inferring from that "dozens" without asking how many...

Seriously. FSD Supervised on my car won't even cross train tracks when traffic is backed up ahead. It will wait on the safe side of the tracks for traffic to clear. The video also seems to show OP driving way faster than I can imagine FSDS would choose to drive by default. If it really is true...

They must be pretty confident in 12.4 if they're already giving demonstrations to former world leaders. Probably part of a charm-offensive for favorable legislation on autonomy in the EU/UK. Also we know it probably wasn't a demo of 12.5 because it did not respond to a valet's hand gestures...

Tiny detail, but this appears to be a hands-free FSD drive, indicating it might have been the upcoming 12.4 version. There's a short video at the top of the article showing Johnson with his hands on his knees instead of on the wheel, and he describes "Instinctively I reach for the wheel," which...

It seems like Tesla gave a demo of 12.4 to Boris Johnson in LA. There's no mention of the FSD version, but there's a short video at the top of the article that shows Johnson with his hands on his knees and not on the wheel. There's also a quote "Instinctively I reach for the wheel; my toe...

Not only is a dedicated GPU in the vehicle an expensive part that only a small percentage of owners end up using, but it becomes obsolete rather quickly and would take even more time and service resource to upgrade. A lot has changed in the PC gaming industry since Tesla first put gaming GPUs...

It's a lawsuit from a guy who had HW2 and was upset that Tesla wanted to charge a fee to upgrade his cameras to HW3. The judge seems to be of the opinion that lidar is needed for autonomy: And the quote you've pulled out is likely to be this judge misunderstanding the technology and Tesla's...

According to Green, the vehicle-side firmware code has had actually smart summon since 12.3: So my guess is that it's been "ready" for a while, but Tesla is waiting on some threshold of reliability before releasing it to the public.

Tesla has created the Actual Smart Summon UI in the latest App version:

There's a German company doing L0 remote control that the BBC covered last year: They started in Berlin, and they've since expanded to the UK.

It's also worth noting that shorts can pretty easily submit false data to the community FSD tracker. The only barrier they present to anyone registering and submitting false data is asking for a screenshot of the Tesla App, which could pretty easily be faked: There are only a total of 194...

The estimate likely comes from simulations. 12.4 isn't going out to employees until this weekend, at which point they'll have some real-world data on it. And then once we get our hands on it, Tesla will have a precise measurement of the number of miles between disengagements.

I was interpreting the mule's camera placements to mean that the robotaxi would be more compact, and therefore what is presently the B-pillar camera would be positioned closer to the rear camera. Did some quick CAD math and given the perspective of the shot, that would make the robotaxi about...

Did you say the same thing to the bears celebrating the poorly modeled Yipit data?

As many of us guessed, the take rare is much higher than 2% and Yipit's data was rubbish:

Up to a magnitude of improvement in miles per disengagement from 12.3 to 12.4, if true. And single-track (end-to-end on highways) by 12.5:

I think we will see a lot of departures and rearrangements in the AI industry for the reasons you've listed. For e.g. OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever has just announced he's moving on. It shouldn't be surprising, but I'm already seeing breathless articles from the same tech journalists that...

There is only one additional detail in the Electrek article that we did not get from the tweet thread alone: Yipit is claiming the source of the data is from credit card payments. I think that probably lends less credence to the data than the social-media sourcing theory I had prior. There...

You can upload CSVs to it now, so I would be surprised if you couldn't get it to perform some TA with the right prompts:

It doesn't really look "bad" either. This large push to get people to vote their shares is likely largely about achieving a quorum at the annual shareholder meeting. Note that both Elon and Kimbal have recused themselves from the compensation vote. Together they represent something like 21.5%...

I have also noticed v12.3.6 pretty consistently merging immediately next to "Lane ends merge left/right" signs; even when prior to any other visual information about the lane ending.

I've gotten so many "Thank you" waves from pedestrians and other drivers on FSD. I always chuckle to myself that they're thanking a machine for driving courteously.

There's a German company that does remote-operated rental vehicles (they remote-drive the rental to you, and then you park anywhere when you're done and they remote-drive it to the next customer). They actually do it all through 4G: Also in speaking of fallbacks, Omar is saying Tesla has a...

I think we need to work with the mods to self-police going down rabbit holes. We cannot expect the volunteer mods to do everything for us. If you see someone has already refuted a troll, resist the temptation to slam dunk on them again in this thread. If you really need to reply again, take it...

Those are called scissor doors, for anyone unfamiliar. They offer many of the advantages of gull wings with regard to parking, but have fewer moving parts.

I decided to take everyone off of my ignore list today. I realized that if we ignore the people that are spreading misinformation and disinformation in this thread, it kind of creates a "shadow" thread where all of that goes unchecked and unquestioned. To observers of this thread that might not...

This is kind of a useless statement. How are we measuring an increase or decrease in demand? What are we measuring it in relation to? What's the baseline? For all we know, the Highland created a massive increase in demand that was offset by a high-interest-rate environment or other factors that...

You keep saying this, and yet you've produced no proof, and only shown us that you're the one willing to twist the truth to fit your agenda. For the sake of everyone on this thread, once you've been sufficiently proven wrong, please don't keep belaboring the point. I think it's important that...

Improvements in responding to hand signals coming in 12.4 and 12.5:

Yep. Navigating downtown DC, handling really challenging situations, and in most cases doing a better job than the human drivers around it. It's gotten to the point where my wife doesn't even notice it's driving. We'll be driving home and she'll be telling me about her day, and occasionally...

The tweet said "Already started DC to NY route." Notice "route" and not "tunnel." Negotiations with local governments is part of starting a new route. They bought a plot of land in DC for the first station of the route, but got caught up in "regulatory no man's land." Uncertain future for Elon...

You can kind of infer some facts about the methodology from the axes of the graph. The X axis is "Trial Start Date / Conversion Date," and I doubt most people would be able to respond the exact date which they started a trial or subscribed to a service if asked. I think that rules out polls...

I think this is largely what's happening with Tesla's residential energy; especially Solar Roof. Commercial installations are still worth doing first-party, but fighting with local governments and HOAs over permits and paint must be an absolute nightmare.

My guess is that Tesla was using the LIDAR to validate the Occupancy Network output. The Occupancy Network itself was in theory trained in an unsupervised fashion using only the "pixel-flow" from multiple camera views. But given it was outputting volumetric predictions, the only way its accuracy...

I was under the impression that they were first added to the cabin camera around the Model S Plaid launch in 2021: Tesla Model S Plaid Has In-Cabin Infrared LEDs, Possibly for Driver Monitoring - TeslaNorth.com

FSD for Cybertruck still a few months away (Elon time):