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Tesla should address the cease-and-desist letter from NHTSA by changing messaging to "not the safest car in the world"

Anyone who thinks there is a demand problem should read the linked stats. They show that the Germans are selling millions of cars each year in China. Mostly they are not as good as a Tesla but cost more than the GF3 vehicles. 2018 International: German Luxury Car Sales Worldwide and in China -...

How many awesome unicorn scale opportunities does Tesla have? I just started listing the obvious ones. What’s missing? Semi Roadster Y 3 expansion Economy car Simplified production of S and X Robotaxi China expansion Charging App store WiFi Insurance Air conditioning Emission credits Solar...

My theory is the unaccounted for batteries are going into TE products. Probably commercial powerpacks and grid solutions. Telsa has given guidance that TE will revenue will double in 2019. The new Grohman line started operating at the end of Q4. We also have reports of an intense pack production...

Great idea! Sell more cars, generate ride sharing revenue, ramp up the network.

Until now Q1 TE production has been constrained by a lack of batteries. They are going to be ramping up rapidly in Q1 and this will have a huge positive impact on margins. Keep in mind when the Model 3 was production constrained the margins were negative.

I agree with you. Tesla is definitely not stockpiling batteries or packs for GF3 as others here are suggesting. That is practically FUD. If Tesla was facing a potential shortage of packs or batteries at the end of the year they would build more production lines because thats how they roll. The...

There are different types of packs. They might have been making TE packs. Who knows? Choice number 2 seems more likely than stockpiling packs.

Tesla is not going to be stockpiling packs. If don't already have enough capacity to feed GF3 they will build an additional line by the time the factory needs the packs.

In 2018 storage margins were low because there was low production constrained by a lack of batteries. We saw the same thing with Model 3. Once you achieve high volume production the margins improve significantly. Storage could achieve at least 25% margin once it reaches high volume production...

Do the math, stockpiling of cells is not a good business move. Better to invest in production capacity. They have time to do this to prepare for GF3

In Q3 2018 they made about $400M with 17.2% gross margin. Production in 2019 is set to double. This will result in higher margins and potential to double revenue over 2018.

TE gross margin was 17.2% in Q3 2018. It could be significantly higher if production doubles as projected.

My theory is they are making TE products and we are going to see a significant ramp and expected revenue in Q1 as a result.

At the Model Y event Elon said '2019 will be the year of Tesla Energy'. This might be significant because in the 2018 full year update the report states "2018 was predominantly the year of the Model 3". If 2019 is the year of TE what does this mean in terms of Q1 results? Is there potential for...

I agree that it seems unlikely Tesla would stockpile packs. However, based on news and comments from Elon and JB over the last few quarters regarding grid solutions and ramp in TE, it seems possible that the reported 6K/week pack production and potentially excess capacity from low TM production...

What if they are not 'switching' chemistry but rather some of the new lines installed in Q4 are dedicated for NMC TE production? If TE produces a few hundred million in expected profit, that might not be huge but there would also be substantial cashflow and perception that TE is growing fast.

Nearly everyone is focused on auto deliveries (or lack of them) yet there are several pieces of evidence that point to an unexpected ramp in Tesla Energy (TE) production that has the potential to provide at least a partial offset to the poor Q1 delivery results. Below I will summarize the...

There is potential for significant growth in TE in Q4. Elon has mentioned several times that there will be a big ramp in TE and I think he mentioned that he eventually expects a similar margin to TM. In previous quarters TE was constrained by a lack of batteries/packs. However, Tesla sold 10K...

I meant $670M in revenue $134M in profit

Tesla produced about 10K fewer cars in Q1 vs Q4. So they had at least 500K kw excess battery pack production capacity or additional capacity for 100,000 Powerwalls at around $6.7K/each * 20% margin and we get $134M in potential additional revenue that is not showing up in most projections. Of...

I also noted Musk mention 2019 will be the year of Tesla Energy. Anybody want to guess what that means in terms of revenue for Q1? Seems like it could be quite significant. Assuming that Tesla Energy has been supply constrained due to limited battery pack production and given that Tesla produced...

The information I have heard is that there is a long waiting list for Energy products. I think it is a production constraint not demand/sales constraint caused by lack of batteries

In past quarters Tesla Energy production was constrained by a lack of batteries. Since they did not produce cars at full capacity in Q1, could those cells go into Energy products, resulting in a major increase in sales? How would that impact earnings and cashflow?

In the last few quarters my understanding is that Tesla Energy production was constrained by a lack of cells because they were putting most of the batteries in the cars. In Q1 it seems that due to lower production of cars they may have more batteries to put into energy products. If that is the...

What is going on with Tesla Energy? In the past they were supply constrained because of battery production but in Q1 it seems not so much :-( If excess battery capacity from Q1 goes into Powerpacks and Powerwalls how does that impact cashflow and earnings?