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On a bus or a train you are probably sharing with a stranger, and the seat may be smaller. This ticks most of the boxes for what I hoped to see, and what I expected to see, Narrow frontal area means less drag and hence fewer kWh per mile. So I may be in the minority, but I hope the final...

Yes, top priority for the Chinese is energy independence which means no imported fossil fuels. Beyond that Tesla is a very good example for Chinese EV makers to copy and compete against. A term used in sport is "iron sharpens iron", to become the best, you need to compete against the best...

What has occurred to me is:- Circumstances changed Strategy changed. Financial pruning was necessary. Elon started getting more involved, and then started digging deeper. When the macro environment was good, interest rates were low, all projects seemed to be on track, there was not an urgent...

It think it is more like "we can't match the Chinese without the unboxed method, Optimus and perhaps 4680s". New technologies like Robotaxis will have higher margin due to less competition. In the meantime the technology basis for cheaper EVs can be proven and de-risked. And the final stage...

Rochedale was fairly busy during holiday times (personal observation - limited visits). It could be that the Springwood charger is an alternative to expanding Rochedale?

An important consideration is if Elon believed the statements were true when he made them. An another important consideration is if those targets are eventually hit, even though that is several years after the originally predicted dates. IMO any pivot that happened, was due to Elon now seeing...

There a battery types that support electric flight that may be in some working (flying) porotypes:- Lyten (probably not in prototypes) CATL Condensed battery - claimed to be in a 1-ton prototype, I would guess around 2035-2040, given that approval to fly might take a while.

IMO this definitely happens:- --------------------------------------------------------- And this probably doesn't happen:- I think FSD and Optimus will be reasonably successful at Tesla even without Elon. But for moral and pragmatic reasons, including self-interest, I think shareholders...

I agree that shareholders should honour the original deal, and that Tesla is far better off with Elon fully engaged. But Elon has no control over assets and AI IP owned and developed by Tesla. If he tries to stop AI development at Tesla, that may lead to a showdown where the board and/or...

There is an CATL Official site on YouTube, I think that is where Viking is getting most of his information. Many of the videos are in Chinese with English subtitles. I am waiting for someone like Limiting Factor to do a deep dive and put some of the CATL claims in context. I think Jordan is...

For something less speculative, here is Jordan's latest video:- As usual, well worth watching.

My original guess about the big tanks on the on the East side of the new extension at Austin was paint, which turned out to be comically wrong. Undeterred I'm going to try another guess and hope that it doesn't end as badly. - heat storage. Dojo will produce a lot of waste heat. if that heat...

I'm a bit wary of these media sources. But I also wonder "why not do both"? Elon seems laser focused on cost reduction at present. However, Tesla didn't get to where they are today be giving up easily, IMO the 4680 project could make a breakthrough at anytime and/or competitors prices for...

You will find out what Elon is thinking on 8/8.

My take on this is that $500m per year is only $125m per quarter on average. And if they spend $200m Q1 it is only 100m on average for the next 3 quarters. We can speculate that they might be spending as little as $50m per quarter Q3 & Q4, and for future quarters. We can also speculate that...

Yes, I am aware of that thread. We also occasionally link some posts from here in other threads. IMO "particular merit" is different to "quality", but only 5% or less of this thread is "quality". And that percentage has taken a deep dive in recent months,

This is a quality post and I think that forum members could create a thread and refence quality posts that we think are worth reading. If we provide that additional service, it will save some of us some valuable time. The only rule I would like to see mods informally enforce is, people can't...

In relation to improving the forum a lot of that is under our control. I'm going to try to limit myself to 1-2 posts per day. By definition that means I will not be responding to any posts. Instead I'll consider if that post is something I consider when making my post on the next day, Lower...

I think what it is about is return on invested capital, and streamlining the business. When they slow down expansion, Supercharging is more likely to become a net contributor to cash, rather than a drain on cash. And by allowing others like BP to expand more rapidly, they sell more charging...

BP wants to buy Supercharger stations, but Tesla hasn't agreed to sell, this is just an plan BP has.

Model Y production seems to be back up and running at Austin, always seemed to me like it may have just been a slow start to the week. I hope someone like Limiting Factor does a deep drive on some of the new CATL battery tech. I tried watching an official CATL presentation, and the battery...

I think many bulls may have overestimated the ride share fare, but underestimated the fleet size. IMO the model is a very large low cost fleet, and paring the fleet cost per mile back the the absolute minimum is an important objective. The margin is the difference between the Tesla cost per...

My compromise suggestion is that if you share that thread with the others, you get 3 additional threads all to yourself IMO there is only really 2 sides for driving - CHD (correct hand drive) and SD (sinister drive). If the world was not so sinister, us CHD folks would have v12 FSD and the...

People should have reasonable expectations, guidance is the upper limit of my expectations. I am hoping for positive cash flow Q2, and definitely expecting it in Q3. Compared to the rest of the car industry, I think Tesla is in relative terms doing about the same or better. We don't yet know...

My definition of Optimus doing "useful work" is - work Tesla would pay a human to do. Regardless of the effort to train for this type of work, it is mostly a one-time task. Once trained - any number of bots can do the same task 24/7 for any number of years. Say the task was pick up an object...

I've been thinking about this shift of emphasis. Part of it is general cost cutting and reprioritizing, part of it is expecting fewer EVs to be sold in some regions than earier projections. But I think part may also be the Biden Admin's rejecting of funding for a Megacharger highway. Tesla...

I follow the Stoic Emperor on X, this is his quote for today:- Some posters here seem very highly motivated to mine for every piece of negative information, including negative media speculation, and post it here. Some of the media speculation is stupid to the point of being comical - e.g...

Aside from the raw spend on AI compute, there are 3 relevant questions:- How efficiently is that AI compute being used? What are the potential and current real world income streams from that AI compute? What are the potential future applications? I am unsure of Microsoft or Google AI currently...

Reposting my own post:- After giving Robotaxis some thought, the closest historical parallel is the building of railways. Prior to railways walking was probably the main means of travel for the majority of the population, only a minority owned a horse or could afford to travel via horse and...

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/04/23/tesla-tsla-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript/

After giving it some thought, the closest historical parallel is the building of railways. Prior to railways walking was probably the main means of travel for the majority of the population, only a minority owned a horse or could afford to travel via horse and cart. Railways did 2 things:-...

This quote form Elon on X is interesting:- Inference is the cars and if we assume 3 Million cars and $1,000 per FSD computer , we get $3B which is probably on the high side. So at least $7B on additional AI training compute. I am assuming the amount citied is just hardware.

While we don't have direct confirmation, we also don't have a direct denial. What is different about a new factory like Mexico? No existing lines, so probably anything Mexico builds will be unboxed, if unboxed pans out as expected. When Tesla stated that they are intending to build up to 20...

You only left out one word ..... initially. So it might read like this:-

Sometimes "ignore" is like taking a shower after an 18 day trek through the wilderness - very refreshing and relaxing. And time saving...

Smart phones need towers, networks, sim cards, regulatory approval. etc. Robotaxis need - charging, cleaning, a fleet, insurance, maintenance, regulatory approval. etc I think the complexity level is similar, but Robotaxis require less infrastructure. Due to the fleet size requirements...

IMO the staff cuts were never about 10% across the board. Elon was looking for duplicated or unnecessary functions, and under performing staff, Not what others consider duplicated, unnecessary or under performing - his opinion. So it is possible that the cuts to the charging team were...

Yes, it is so huge that, if anyone has a photo of a prismatic cylinder I would like to see it :)

What we don't know at this stage is if more of that 10% cut was for staff positions with higher salaries:- Management Engineers IT Seems to me that factory production at most factories is largely unaffected, only factory staff for the new compact car in Austin were laid off. So I think it...

Maintenance / expansion on existing popular sites might also make more sense. I am wondering what the 500 members of the charging team did, and where they were located. It may be that Tesla is moving to a more geographically based decentralised model for sales, service and charging. Removing...

All depends on the ROI of allocated capital, and the spending priorities. At present Elon is all in on AI training capex, and Elon is conservative about preserving the existing cash buffer. Existing Supercharging can still be profitable, while expanding Supercharging might currently not be the...

I think that is right, but inductive changing will be for RTs. It hasn't escaped my attention that many of the presenters on Investor Day are no longer at the company. What has changed since Investor Day? Increased focus on autonomy and AI training hardware investments. Macro environment has...

A quick hack for Geofenced Robotaxi operation would be to mark certain turns as closed on the map, ensuring Robotaxis take alternative safer routes. FSD still needs to allow for the case where there is no alternative safer route.

There is a difference between annual production and deliveries and fleet size. The difference is each year X million cars get added to the fleet where X > 2 and X <= 20.

Tesla using Baidu Maps should mean that all Tesla vehicles including Robotaxis improve Baidu Maps as they drive around. When integrated into Tesla navigation using Baidu Maps will be seamless. I expect the gap to Amap Map APP will quickly close.

Seems likely to me that Tesla Robotaxis update Baidu maps, Baidu Robtotaxis benefit from those updates. And Tesla benefits from the existing maps and any updates done by Baidu. Those that are thinking that a Chinese competitor can easily copy or reverse engineer the Tesla FSD solution haven't...

I think all of the AI training software runs in Python and Tesla has developed a Python compiler / interpreter for Dojo.

The Hornsdale battery project started in 2017 at the time it was hand built and Tesla needed to source cells from Samsung. At the time I can remember many claiming that the whole idea of big batteries was an extremely dumb idea and it would never work. We are only now getting to the point...

Sadly it seems to me like there is no possible way that your in-laws can visit .... problem solved. :)

After reflecting on history at the Austin factory there was a time when there were 2 Model Y lines:- Model Y 2170 (Still running) Model Y 4680 (stopped) When those 2 Model Y lines were running the process probably looked like this:- Body Shop - separate Paint - combined Marriage - separate GA...