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I'd actually say a log chart is the only way to look at something with an exponential growth rate component; it is disengenuous to look at linear charts and think they tell a full story. I prefer looking at the derrivatives more directly, but that is more personal taste.

I haven't listened yet, but look forward to it. Most of what you are listing though I already had priced into my thesis. From just a fundamentals perspective it starts to get expensive soon IMO. Still happy to accumulate and still happy to trade volatility and doubters though.

Boy, I must be the only one disappointed with NVDA earnings based on AH movement. Maybe disappointed isn't the right word, but the move is more than I expected for the earnings.

I'd love to figure out a way to do a second order analysis of IV and price delta to show independent sentiment data. One can see a pattern here in how discussions move and there seems to be a correlation that can be safely tapped. It was clear something was happening on Monday that signaled an...

The -c960 was sold for $40, and I have enough puts in play to easily replace the shares, along with another 6 blocks left. My goal this year with options is just to pay taxes and ideally make sure that the broader portfolio is at least flat. I do want to accumulate NVDA, but I want to pare...

All depends on your objective. Netting out $190 is fine by me, especially if I have another opportunity to buy back lower.

That is all relative, but -P900-950 are attractive to me with margin to cover assignment.

I have -P850, -P900, -C1200, -C960 for this week, and -P at 900 and 950 scattered out the next two months. I would like to be writing -P>970 for 6/7, but there isn't much time premium to cover the stock staying flat. Have too much risk for that scenario already.

I do... but see enough risk of $875 that I don't want to take on more exposure. I have 9 short puts already for this week which is more than my rule. I guess I could look at writing one -p850, but it is not really enough risk/reward.

Yeah, over 100% for some fairly safe trades! I have to resist the temptation to increase my exposure here, as emotionally I expect a pop to >$1k, but selling $1k puts right now is more than I should be taking on.

Yeah... just like any kind of insurance, insuring against the inevitable gets expensive and leads to a distorted market. One man's peril is another's opportunity though I guess. Personally I am still stuck being unwilling to play either side of the trade in Tesla right now. I should just...

NVDA premiums are great for this week on both sides. I was surprised that one (of three) put I wrote that was $5 ITM at expiration didn't assign. Was playing the arbitrage game in the last few hours to scrape some extra cash. 100% IV now, not sure I had seen that before.

It isn't about paying him; that is inevitable and right. What is wrong is to front-run the judicial process and hide in Texas. I voted for transparency and accountability first and foremost.

We bump up because the Board (including Elon) acknowledge there is a problem. That is a big step.

I have no objections at all to Elon having his payday. I just want him bound by a reasonable sales strategy. The amount isn't an issue for me even, although someone should be paying for the original fiasco other than the overall shareholder pool. The board (and Elon) did screw up which is why...

...until it isn't. From a fundamentals perspective, once earnings come out I doubt the weekly channel will hold.

I am guessing over $1k for NVDA. A few down days for SMCI might make it tradeable for me.

Completely agree. My "No" vote was a vote for greater transparency in the process and ensuring that the package is set in consideration of shareholder interests. The current proposal offers neither of those. I am fine with Elon getting paid for the work he has done... as long as that action...

More that technical analysis is independent of what the event turns out to be. There is always a catalyst to sustain a movement, although cycles can be kind of blind. I don't like just relying on technical analysis, but at times it is a much easier way to approach things. Especially when "Sell...

Reuters has an article up that Unionen, Sweden's largest union, is joining the strike and will be blockading Tesla. Not sure exactly what this means yet. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-strike-sweden-heats-up-nations-largest-union-joins-fray-2024-05-14/

The more you trade them the more you lose; that is the benefit of holding. Theta is pretty low until about 90-180 days out. Delta is also proportionately lower so rolling isn't a huge priority. Personally when I buy LEAPS the strikes are usually about half the stock price. So, a 10% drop in...

I am still bearish... but I understand today's movement. People figure with GPT4o being "so good" that Tesla's AI objectives might be possible. Maybe I am just emotionally bearish and positioned mostly bullish. @Jim Holder on buying puts to insure for the shareholder meeting: remember that...

Compared to most of what you are doing they are pretty straightforward. The challenge for me is just being able to visualize/analyze risk over time and stock price; it is a real 3D/4D problem when you hold them for a longer time and are down/at risk for some positions. It feels like differential...

Pretty impressive. The rate of progress is scary.

I'll admit it; I have had more AAPL shares than TSLA by a signficant margin for 20 years, and I don't know the board members. As far as I can tell, they do their job and get out of the way... although Eddy Cue should have been let go a long time ago. The same cannot be said for TSLA's board...

Well, the Hawaii mafia is ready to go but ETrade isn't.

It was one of my check boxes. Two left right now.

There is another short-term strategic benefit in doing this in the second month of the quarter that makes it worth taking the hit: if this stimulates demand then Tesla can increase production and possibly up prices to cover part of the interest.

In a gold rush sell the shovels. There is so much money that is going to be spent in this segment that core providers have little risk in the next 24 months. NVDA does not have serious competition for at least 36 months. Their pace of innovation suggests that they will make another step-change...

Interesting take, a bit surprising to me but I get your logic. Personally I think if NVDA hits $6-6.5 EPS as I expect we should see $1k before long. But to make it happen they do need to show meaningful QoQ growth or money will shift into the AI cloud providers in anticipation of their pop...

My take is that the market assumes the measures will pass and stabilize the path forward for Tesla. Personally I am into more chaos theory; I think that something needs to not go Elon's way in the vote (Kimbal/Murdoch, Deleware, or Comp) to light enough of a fire that some of the corporate...

Just buy a used car with FSD for the replacement. The value is minimal on Tesla's used prices.

You and your AI are much better at this than me, but my gut says $880 will hold. The premiums for 5/24 -P900 are way too high at ~$50 though to not feel like I am getting a deal if assigned. When everyone is claiming that they are building their own AI chips and that they saw all this coming...

As I understand it, voting is open until June 12. As for the legal case wrt the resolution... I don't understand what the board thinks there. This resolution has IMO even less transparency than the original one.

OMG, it is trading back where it was at 10AM! ;)

The company checked two of my boxes for things they need to be doing (out of 5). That to me puts the company (not the projections) back where it was about a year ago and where support was for the past ~2 years. The growth story may have deteriorated for the time being, but I think earnings are...

Personally... writing ITM calls and hoping they get assigned. I still have a lot of shares, but the stock has become too volital to be a dominant part of my portfolio. I'm also writing some DITM LEAP puts that I will try to trade take gains where I can. I don't think it is a great strategy; I...

Starting to get nervous writing far-OTM calls on my NVDA shares. Premiums too low; might need to switch to buying DOTM calls for a little scalp here and there. Finally cleaned up a botched trade and assignment from January with Tesla on Friday. Took the loss there and cleaned up the wash sale...

Now is your chance to fire Kimbal.

...and this is why I can't support any of the board proposals. Address the reasons why the ruling against the compensation plan happened first, and then design a plan that is more transparent and investor-friendly.

I kind of disagree with almost everything said in the video. For Tesla to really address the next level of needs they need a dramatically different approach to the infrastructure and the utilities. They basically need to be able to work with utilities to screen locations where they can get...

Doing the job means keeping the company running smoothly; I am not looking for a CEO that just comes in to shuffle the fires every few months. His actions of recent weeks are likely warranted and I don't fault them without concrete information on why they were shortsighted. The general lack of...

That seems overly optimistic to me, but I would not complain. Sold some July $950P before close for $115. Hoping to stretch out my strikes a bit more ITM for the next couple months. 10x TSLA 170CCs for today should assign which frees up some extra cash at a good time.

Looks great unless NVDA goes to $1,000. Counting on it to be range bound from ~750-950 seems like its own risk.

I think expansion rate of the SC network has been too slow and it is a risk for Tesla, especially with other manufacturers coming into the network. My perspective is cloudy there though; Hawaii is a few small rocks, but the SC infrastructure is really behind by about 3-4 years. There are other...

Using your example you are essentially banking on increased volatility in a short time frame, no? Do you have any tools to evaluate your risk/exposure across your holdings, or do you just have sufficient cash to cover short term needs?

A balanced strategy is often the best. I would like to earn enough to cover living expenses in the down years, and taxes in the up years. I am a HODLer at heart, but I recognize that being passive in managing my portfolio can make me oblivious to shorter term indicators, especially on my minor...

To me it looks like real resistance will be closer to $220 the way it is taking shape.

Nice to get an up-day and see my portfolio back in "retirement" range, but I still feel clueless on how to position myelf right now. I have a handful of -170CC for this week that I guess I will let get assigned, but the complicated one is Jun 16 +140C's that have a break-even point around $250.

As I understand it, Tesla got approval for their data localization infrastructure in China yesterday (US time). It is not just about Baidu, but a more significant step, likely putting them close to the US in FSD 12.3 progress in the short term.