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  1. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The only way shorting is actionable is if doing a naked short while not a market-maker, were someone able to do so. Otherwise shorting is quite legal, so long as the shorter has borrowed the shares. Calls and Puts are also legal, not actionable. What do you think is illegal about any of that...
  2. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Survey based dat such as JD Power does provide useful information but is misleading because of respondent selection bias. My data is not current, but the last data I had showed that vehicle sales were highly dependent on market segment. Within those segments in most major countries business use...
  3. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Same day completion of all documentation, including finance, insurance and title/registration has been done routinely for decades. In most locations around the world there are temporary 'plates' or some equivalent. I've personally done that and facilitated that numerous times in IIRC six...
  4. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Then why did Starlink just complete application for full mobile including newly designed small dishes, not to mention cellular service?: https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-cellular-starlink-system-works-on-iphone-pixel-galaxy-devices It's only a matter of short time before T-Mobile cellular...
  5. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As a not-entirely OT fact about truckers in North America, there is this: "The U.S. is home to half a million Sikhs, of which the Sikhs Political Action Committee estimates that around 150,000 of them work in the trucking industry – which makes the sector an overwhelming favorite amongst their...
  6. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since regeneration is a net increase in 'fuel', plus can stop the truck...it really isn't analogous to a Jake brake, whether from Jacbs or not. OTOH, your comment is really funny!
  7. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are numerous Dolphins (~ Model 3 sized) operating now in the Rio de Janeiro Uber fleet. I have ridden in them, one operated by a Chinese immigrant to Brazil FWIW. Especially with heavy traffic they are much more comfortable than are the ICE ones. My next door neighbor has two Volvo EV's...
  8. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In context: https://www.volvogroup.com/en/news-and-media/news/2024/feb/volvo-completes-acquisition-of-battery-business-from-proterra-inc--and-proterra-operating-company.html In nearly all cases autonomy and BEV do go together quite symbiotically.
  9. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Remember GM gave up only in Europe. Their business is China and South America is strong and has not declined. The big question is what happens in South America as the Chinese popularize BEV's there. GM does produce lots of BEV's in China through JV and Chinese designed, of course. Then...
  10. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is an important point. In the rapidly evolving vehicle markets globally it's obvious but not inevitable that Chinese companies will continue to be dominant in BEV's. In most markets where Tesla operates they're very much holding their competitiveness despite histrionics from those who see...
  11. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It sounds plausible but...it is a Reuters story so does not have the instant credibility it might otherwise have had. It's even slightly disingenuous to quote an article that itself is a reprint of the Reuters piece. Are there other more credible sources? As usual for Reuters this one quotes...
  12. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good point. I should have referred to his science books, several of which helped some young people to study the subject. Mine was this: His fiction piqued curiosity and his science books helped foment serious interest to pursue science academically. That was 1966, so everything soon changed, as...
  13. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Merriam-Webster has this wrong then. It is correct to say "Hard science" although that is an antiquated form since the evolution of quantum physics in general understanding. By definition no science is 'exact' despite Merriam-Wesbter's misunderstanding. 'accurate' itself is a generalization, as...
  14. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There really is no such thing as an "exact science". Check out Heisenberg: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qt-uncertainty/ Science, by definition is as precise as humans can make it be, but still it is not absolute. Almost everyone does not understand that, even though every Physics course...
  15. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Methodologies differ. Nearly all public companies with wide distribution have campaigns to support major corporate actions. Most widely held companies that do not have majority insider holdings have campaigns required to obtain majority shareholder vote for anything.
  16. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While we do not know, I would be astonished were the people being rehired prior to their actual departure would lose anything from the prior employment. I would be surprised and disappointed were those rehired not have all their former benefits restored. If any of that has actually happened...
  17. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is a very helpful comment. I had nit thought about that in TSLA context, even though I’ve seen that a few times and even initiated it once.Almost all the ones I saw also involved a change in physical location also, so not necessarily identical to this case.
  18. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is certainly part of it. My underlying logic is the present day adoptions demographics of BEV's, not hybrids. Much of the global acceleration of BEV's has been coming from Chinese growth, including ones like Volvo, Polestar and BMW iX3 although they are not directly a major factor. In the...
  19. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The market discrepancies are largely explained by income distributions, taking the US example: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html Even though that 2022 data should a modest decrease in income inequality; The effects of the income stability at the top 5% with...
  20. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually that fits the mold. Dealer ‘participation’,( I.e. their finance profit ) derives primarily from markups on loans and leases. Those are technically rebates to dealers which are often, not always, conditioned on asset performance. Very early lease termination, for example, can trigger...
  21. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, it is clear! They would NOT. Even back when Chase Auto Finance experiments with Volvo ten year loans it was Volvo which paid the consequences. Commercial finance companies operate captives and offer subvened financing at times. This industry is roughly a century old and has entrenched...
  22. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, it is clear! They would NOT. Even back when Chase Auto Finance experiments with Volvo ten year loans it was Volvo which paid the consequences. Commercial finance companies operate captives and offer subvened financing at times. This industry is roughly a century old and has entrenched...
  23. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Does that help understand why no Superchargers? It is odd, especially because Santiago de Chile has one of the world’s largest municipal electric bus fleets, perhaps the largest one outside China; :How Santiago became one of the first cities to electrify public transport at scale
  24. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am bewildered by this one, especially since they could cover the entire country with a dozen or so Superchargers. A long-narrow country is not difficult.
  25. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a crucial point in my opinion. Much of promotion is placed within the already existing customer base plus prospects directly influenced by existing customers. That, in turn, shows that many recent Tesla incentives, especially, Supercharger and/or FSD transfer, really effect changed in...
  26. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To those who imagine I see Tesla as 'just a car company': You have never read my posts. Since early years I have seen Tesla as an energy company primarily because of JB Straubel vision and Elon Musk being into that vision; Since 2012 I have viewed Tesla as a design company, primarily because of...
  27. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    on FSD as a likely significant contribution to profits: First, I still count nothing for RoboTaxi precisely because even with technology 'perfected' there are innumerable impediments to widespread adoption, all well documented; Second, since 2015 with first Autopilot I have considered Tesla well...
  28. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For those of us who, like @dhrivnak , have been active since near the beginning or even before with Zip2 or other early Musk-led businesses, it is a bit disingenuous to dismiss legitimate concerns with formulaic acidulous misunderstanding. It is difficult enough for those of us who invested very...
  29. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, no…misunderstanding the facts leads to increect conclusions.
  30. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is an entirely incorrect premise. There is copious information here annd elsewhere explaining how actuarial processes, loss frequency vs loss severity work.
  31. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He referred to only auto insurance profitability for automated vehicles. Most of BH insurance holdings are not related to auto.
  32. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anybody steeped in actuarial practice, Warren Buffet is a superb example, understands the impact of loss severity, and also the increased likelihood of self insured status for operators, with reinsurance for excess risk. That is not a recipe for good results in traditional car insurance.
  33. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Their lease securitizations suggest you might be incorrect as to the %. Remember that at higher vehicle values, especially, a prime motivation for leasing is the ability to gain better tax treatment than would eb the case of direct depreciation of a purchased vehicle. Such cases are largely...
  34. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    AAPL has debt for one major purpose: to balance income and expense for foreign exchange. They do not use debt for any other purposes. Tesla, similarly, has had little reason to borrow in recent years, other than to help offset FX risks. These are long established corporate practices to balance...
  35. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually not so much those things but two things: taxes and minimal zoning. Of course both of those do subsume, perhaps, to givernsnce. Very wealthy individuals often redomicile to Florida for two reason: minimal personal taxes and general ‘household’ rules. That does not necessarily mean such...
  36. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is really not complex: 1. Tesla recognizes sales on completion of delivery to final purchaser. 2. Almost all others recognize sale when transferred to dealer/distributor, not always defined the same way. Conditionality, I.e. buyer attempting return after purchase is either a warranty...
  37. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is clever, but incorrect. Shorts do not 'hold negative shares'. They borrow shares in hopes of repaying them at lower price later. Single exception: market makers in the US can sell shares they do not own (i.e. "naked shorts"). They still aren't 'negative shares' just imaginary ones. They...
  38. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I have no doubt the the largest unexpected factor was the shipping dysfunction during the quarter. All the there could have been anticipated and adjusted. Even the Houthi issues were quite predicable. Having the explanations ready accessible, as they are, does not alter the choices that...
  39. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I voted for all but that one. I followed your logic.
  40. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not sure if you’re serious. Just in case Flanders is the Flemish (essentially a Dutch dialect) side. That is the wealthy side, the one smith almost all the EVs. Wallonia, essential the French part does not buy many EVs don’t have so many fast chargers. The German speaking part is East Belgium...
  41. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He lives in the other part of belgium, the progressive one. Flanders
  42. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You are a fount of useful information! This dichotomy neatly explains regional differences in EV penetration in many countries, including each of Tesla's major sources of sales. Belgium, by it's nearly unique structure, makes less obvious locations much easier to see.
  43. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Situation pending. From recent posts you might logically infer that my intentions are waiting for confirmations. I am encouraged. Your assessment of sales price is interesting.
  44. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Not really. Were that issue not to have fomented major changes we might argue it is insignificant. However, it is not, especially in Elon's world where he watches that metric very closely. It is, for him, as close as you can get to a 'measure of merit'. As several have already posted, including...
  45. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Seriously? You cannot dismiss it because it's not happened for some time. Nor because it is directly attributable to inventory (you do not know if it's all 'in transit') or AI. Really it does not matter exactly how it happened. That it did is a major issue. Explaining it away doesn't eliminate...
  46. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Were we to have access to internal data we'd find that within a given Model range, (e.g. Model 3, BMW 3 series) OEM's invariably price the lowest level vehicle in a range so as to provide a net contribution to fixed costs, that the variable costs of manufacturing, distributing, selling and...
  47. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Now you're missing a handful of important points. In Q1 2024 TSLA was heavily negative for Free Cash Flow. It was also negative for GAAP and non-GAAP profits. Each competitive metric should be assessed at the same time in the same fashion, adjusted fro accounting policy differences. Nearly all...
  48. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Without question there are huge variations. The trends, as graphically shown in a previous US-only post, are indisputable. While ‘empty nests’ grew until roughly 2000 or so, the trend changes are only in part due to economics. A large part is driven by the same forces showing declining birth...
  49. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The factual support is visible in a basic statistic, percentage of adults who have driving licenses: https://www.statista.com/chart/18682/percentage-of-the-us-population-holding-a-drivers-license-by-age-group/ I have not searched for equivalent data for countries other than the US. My anecdotal...
  50. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Then there are the countries in which >95% of all banking transactions and even street artists and beggars have smartphone money transfer for their benefactors to use. Those in such places as Kenya, Brazil and, notably, Afghanistan where government employees have been paid via smartphone for...