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They can't lower it anymore without shutting out GM and then Nissan and Hyundai EVs as well.

Everyday people drive distracted and run into stationary cars with no self driving or autopilot on. Now we have people driving distracted with autopilot on and on some occasions running into stationary objects and you think the problem is the name? The name doesn't matter, people will drive...

Have you found his analysis to be pretty good in the past?

I've wondered about what percentage of model s/x owners own Tesla stock after buying the car and the positive feedback loop this creates. In my own experience of knowing a handful of owners IRL a majority also made meaningful investments into Tesla stock. I wonder how this will play out with...

I've seen reports showing battery density improving roughly 7% or so a year over the last 20ish years. I wonder if the norm was more like big improvements every 5 years or so enter production and average out to 7% a year in improvements? So more like big step progress rather than annual...

The CAGR% numbers sure would be even better if you included one more year in there, I'm sure that was a coincidental time-frame you selected. How about CAGR since ipo year? hmm..

Kind of hard to tell how big of a issue Panasonic is really having from his comments though. He said things were going alright when it was just 3-4 lines because they could rob parts from the additional lines but now that they are at 10 operational lines they are running out of parts. But it...

The guy on electrek is claiming Panasonic's american hires are holding them back, he says the japanese technical people are top notch but don't speak much english so it hard to train unskilled reno workers. He claims to be a low level technical manager for Panasonic, so he only has access to...

But if you are using the story as an analogy of 'production hell' you come out of hell at the end after reaching the 9th circle, having traveled chronologically through it.

Bonnie gave the latest update a positive review as well. Many others have said similar things.

Yes. There is essentially two ways to look at Tesla and Spacex (and Elon in general). 1) Do they hit the insanely hard goals Elon sets for himself and his companies? 2) What did they accomplish relative to competitors in these time frames. Even "mistakes" like the Model X, where actually...

Also could explain the delay in things like rain sensor ability. Those features are being developed in the new build? If this is true then all the reason by analogy based on progress we've seen so far with AP2 could be way off.

Some promising news on the AP development front, it looks like the first noticeable performance improvements under new AI director Andrej Karpathy have been released. I try to follow all the AP related threads on TMC and this update has gotten some good performance related feedback relative to...

Remember in early August of this year when Einhorn warned about the "markets willingness" to fund the model 3 ramp a week before Tesla easily raised $1.8 Billion from the bond market with favorable terms that surprised a lot of people?

Model 3 isn't a binary outcome for the market. How long does it take to get to 1k/wk? 2k/wk production and so on, what will the initial quality and other consumer reactions be to the first few thousand?

How many holding out for dual motors?

So we can expect a $5 goldman downgrade in the morning?

While this is true to a degree, you also have to consider many people enjoy teaching, you become like a mini celebrity among your followers and you can also make a good amount of money with no volatility. But i agree with your sentiment as a general rule, just that there can be some exceptions.

Is there a link for this or is it a newsletter?

Considering it wont go into effect until 2018 if at all, calling it a Tesla tax is acknowledging Tesla has no direct competition in these EV segments. I think that dichotomy will be lost on the bears who tout incoming direct competition.

The short power outages ruining cells seems really suspect, i know they have powerpacks installed at fremont, seems likely the gigafactory would also have some.

I guess we can report the fakenews headline: Google Groups

Does google let you report fakenews yet?

Good interview article of Google CEO Sundar Pichai: (I thought this quote was insightful and could be applied to the Tesla vs Big Auto debate) When I ask how it feels to be in charge of Google, Pichai pauses and looks determinedly at the floor, then out of the window. “History shows that the...

Exactly. When have old successful businesses ever been in a hurry to spend a ton of money and take on a bunch of risk only to cannibalize their existing products and market share? The public market incentive structure given to upper management and the board also incentivizes against these kind...

His top production people should have said it was impossible if that is what they believed and tendered their resignations if necessary, we're not talking about low level workers here with limited opportunity to take another high paying job. Wouldn't they be better off leaving before *sugar* hits...

We're not privy to the details here, but if his top production people went along with it and told Musk they could meet those deadlines then they were also part of the problem.

Weren't the people in charge of Model X production over this period let go? The model 3 is easier to build than the model S, and the model S didn't have any major long term delays during the ramp like the X. The S had minor delays in the ramp.

I'm sure bears will try to craft a Musk lied narrative. But he has been a broken record for many quarters that predicting the s-curve of the ramp is really hard, he even said "impossible". 2017 Q2 Earnings call: Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc. What we have ahead of us, of course, is an...

Will Mueller's potential indictments have any meaningful impact on the market? Manu Raju on Twitter

Does the market freak out over only 300ish M3 deliveries or does it react positively to increasing s/x demand?

This still doesn't explain why Toyota isn't taking a Nissan or GM approach of at least getting some experience and real world testing with a ev program like leaf or the bolt. Something like that wouldn't cost that much for the experience they would get in return, seems odd.

Is there a version of this for EV revenue only?

I would bet a lot that before model 3 starts shipping in volume we start seeing FSD suite features begin to be activated, probably within the next 2-3 months.

I'm guessing he got some huge offer that was to good to pass up.

Using a poker analogy, Elon has essentially created the perfect image to show up with nuts on the model 3 ramp. Wallsteet and even the bullish analysts have all assumed significant delays and slower model 3 ramp than Tesla is aiming for. This of course requires hard execution on the ramp and no...

One of exception to this that comes to mind was the original powerwall/powerpack launch, but this was because Tesla reported high demand with reservations. I think we could see a bounce from the 3 launch if we get pre-order updates that exceed the markets expectations by a decent amount. I'm...

I think his general TA advice and what to consider is good and some of his calls are legit, but you can't trade on much of his calls since as you mentioned they are often post-facto. Like today when he said it hit his $341 price target, he didn't mention that target until it was hit and his...

Overselling FSD doesn't really help Tesla much, the money collected from it carries forward as deferred revenue until they activate it.

@elonmusk hit 10.5M followers, didn't he just hit 10M last week?

It is also worth pointing out that the shorts and permabears have all assumed that Elon's lack of Model 3 pre-order updates is because the number has fallen over the last 12 months. Without considering that Elon wants to reduce osborne effect by not giving the media reasons to talk about the...

The shorts will do their usual hyperventilating routine with the Q2 report, but if Elon says model 3 ramp is going well, releases updated pre-order numbers and notes that they are growing, ect. How does the market react? It seems like there is a good chance that all the public attention the...

Refuse to give them any clicks on this one, but let me guess article makes no mention that last year CA went out of their way to exclude S/X purchases from the state EV tax credit.

We should get an order backlog update on the Model 3, could it be at or above 500k deposits? Maybe: Steve on Twitter

Pretty good news: Tesla will get access to big South Korea EV incentives with new change.

James is seemingly the most progressive of the group and is friends with Al Gore: From a FT interview of both Al Gore and James Murdoch: GORE: Almost all of our conversations have been about both of these topics and last night when we had a dinner party it was both topics. In a way that’s...

So you think Mercedes drive pilot is better? Here is a reveiw from theDrive that also links to other similar reviews: Drive Pilot: Steering Another disaster. This is actually a dangerous product. The car will steer itself into oncoming traffic. It oscillates between lane markings like a...

I agree, but you also have to consider that most recessions are pretty tame, unlike the last one. It would be unusual to get two historically large ones back to back.