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Great observation. But do you see the daily chart's 21 EMA and 50 SMA are below SP today? In May last year, these moving averages were exactly flipped relative to SP and acted as resistance rather than support. Also possible is a 5-wave DCB. See below. If this is a DCB, like the others...

When I see these long upper wicks on the green days, most importantly May 13th (the day of the supposed end of correction), it tells me there’s hesitation from the bulls. Whereas on the red days, the bears are in control from start to finish. Perhaps this is telling us we may not be quite ready...

Yeah, this is similar to Monday, Mar 11th. Another telltale sign of DCB is the flat price action at $168 for most of the day on Friday.

IF, and that's a big if, we've ended our first leg up, 176 is likely the bottom. At this level, we have the 50 SMA, 0.382 fib retracement, and horizontal support. I see a 0.01% chance we go any lower than that. If 176 is hit, do not hesitate to enter longs. That being said, it's also extremely...

I got a phone call from a friend and long-time shareholder last night. He was genuinely concerned that I hadn't yet bought back in. I've only seen him have this much conviction a handful of times. He may have been overly optimistic for much of the past few years but he's a very smart guy and...

Is $159 still in play? It's much less likely now that SP opened at $188. Watch for SP to retrace starting sometime between today and Thursday. Other than the obvious fundamental developments, there are too many people starting to get FOMO which is making it very hard for tsla to retrace. When it...

Driving cybertruck in person is probably the closest you’ll feel to being a celebrity. Although be prepared for some Elon haters to cut you off and give you the bird.

I’ve been reading several books about Elliott Wave Theory lately. Many Elliott Wave theorists claim that logarithmic charting is better for longer-term trends while arithmetic is better for shorter-term trends, although they say you should test both. This is because arithmetic charting only...

Trading is like a game of poker with no blinds or antes. It's like a poker game where you can fold every hand until you're dealt a monster. But rather than it taking a few minutes or a couple of hours to be dealt a playable hand in poker, it can take months in the stock market. In trading, Mr...

“Although prediction of target levels well in advance can be done surprisingly often, such prediction can be irrelevant to making money trading the stock market. All one really needs to know at the time is whether to be long or short.” - from Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter

More valuable than any book, any analyst, or any technical signal is learning from your own mistakes. There’s too much noise out there in the TMC and X. Too many opinions all mostly rooted in emotions or with some agenda. Until recently, I really only studied the chart, past and present, looking...

You know the chicken and the egg debate? What about fundamentals vs technicals? For those who believe in Elon, have been following him for years, have read his biography, and who believe in TSLA and FSD and robotaxis and optimus, it may seem obvious that the fundamentals will eventually catch...

And there's this monthly bearish divergence looming. It appears the music is just slowing...but what might the music do a week, a month, a year from now, Mr. Sulivan?

Could you share your chart and reasoning?

While the technicals thus far have indicated tsla still has further to fall, the past 2 days have changed things a bit. So I will give the bull case for why we could be at the start of a new rally and how I plan to trade it. At this time I don’t have any position in tsla. Please note that the...

More downside

Agreed. That’s why I joined this thread. Our biggest risk is groupthink. It’s critical we all do our own research and have independent thought.

For many of my friends with millions of dollars invested in Tesla and busy day jobs, it makes sense for them to buy and hold. Maybe sprinkle in some covered calls or buy puts as insurance from time to time. Guys like me though, who have much smaller bank rolls, more time on my hands, and a deep...

Those puts should be looking pretty good right now.

I don't think we've created a strong enough bottom but I'm not sure how long it'll be before we push lower. I'll be watching that ascending support trendline.

Despite the 1hr and lower time frames breaking the support trendline leading back to 3/14 early this morning, the 2hr, 4hr, and 1 day held strong. I often get ahead of myself early in the day. This is why using the higher time frames to confirm the breakout is so important. If it fails the...

Did the whales just reveal their cards? Yes, they did. They can't help themselves!

My number 1 rule for trading TSLA is to focus on the bigger picture. Even if TSLA goes to 188, 200, or even 220 in the following weeks, anyone who thinks we have seen the bottom is smoking crack. We are in a solid downtrend. This is obvious after we broke the red trendline in Oct and retested it...

Here's just 1 example. SP showed us before Q3 2023 earnings that it was going to fall on earnings.

TSLA has a long history of rallying for 4 days before consolidating and retracing. Sometimes it's 3 days other times it's 5, but 4 is the most common. The point isn't to expect the 4th day to be a top before a retracement. This is just another pattern that SP respects and can be used to help...

What's amazing is that the chart often shows us how the stock will move on earnings. In a sense, the chart is the crystal ball.

It doesn't seem unreasonable to expect at least one more low.

Comparing Nov 2022 to today there are a lot of similarities. In both cases we had bullish RSI divergence, increasing selling volume leading up to a bottom on Nov 22nd, 2022 and Mar 15th, 2024, and a gap up the day after with increasing volume. I am using Nov 2022 as a reference for today and...

Looking back at the start of several of the last rallies, we can see SP finds support along the 0.382, 0.5, or 0.618 fib retracement. Most recently, the 0.618 has been the key retracement level. I watch for strong candle setups around these levels, like hammers, engulfing, or a 1hr reversal...

It's so funny to me. Everyone and their mother goes short or closes their long position last week. If it seems too good to be true it usually is. Now a lot of these shorts are going to get shaken out and some old bulls will buy back. But absolutely nothing has changed. If you traded through...

0.5 or 0.618 fib levels are great spots for support today. 0.5 is holding up so far but I wouldn't be surprised to see 0.618 get tested today or sometime this week. The past 2 rallies have seen an initial retest of the 0.618 after the first bounce. The past 2 days are reminiscent of Nov 22nd and...

From my experience, when SP gaps up big (3%+) it typically results in SP closing the day higher. However, I try to trade on rules and not on emotions. That way if I'm wrong I can modify the rule, which is a lot easier than trying to modify your future emotional state. One of my rules is I...

Have you considered establishing a rule to wait til the 1hr or 1day chart closes before making a decision?

Unfortunately for many traders and investors in tsla, followers are more important than dollars

I don't know when TSLA will bottom and begin another rally. If you've been studying the chart for a while you know this stock does not bottom after sitting on a support level, like it has done at $175 for 5 days. There's always a time for firsts, but to give me confidence that $175 area is the...

One of the reasons I only just recently made a TMC account and rarely post my TA thoughts is that your identity can easily become attached to your posts. This can make it difficult to pivot which is a death wish for anyone trading. It's hard enough to change course without posting your thoughts...

There are many similarities from 1/19 - 1/24 compared to the last few days (3/6 - 3/11). Most likely, the recent price action is ultimately setting up for another strong push lower, like 1/25.

Another day with early morning hesitation. Today is likely no different than 3/7. It is not significant enough to justify a bottom yet. If a bottom was in we would not see the stock selloff so strongly in the last half of the first hour. I think it is extremely important to watch how the 1hr...

Your analysis is great and always worth reading. I will just add that I've never seen the SP bottom after hugging up against a support level like it has done at 175 for 3 days. Although there's always a time for firsts. I think we will see a push lower followed by a clear signal of support...

SPY has been forming a bearish divergence since Dec 19th while the volume continues to decrease. This shows there are fewer buyers as the price climbs higher. Meanwhile, the VIX continues to form higher lows. Meanwhile, NVDA is breaking down today on heavy volume after also having formed a...

Resistance this morning at the 181.50 level, bearish RSI divergence on the 5 min chart, breaking of the ascending trendline on high volume. These are all likely indicative of further downside for TSLA next week. Not to mention a plethora of other bearish indicators on numerous time frames...

I need to research more Elliott Wave Theory. To me, it has always seemed a bit hocus pocus, although I know it has some merit. Now that we've established that 175 is most likely not the low it is much easier for me to watch PA around key support levels and wait for a proper 1 day reversal to...

Today reminds me of Jan 8th, 2024. Lower volume in the first hour compared to the previous 3 down days and a long upper wick. The bulls are weak. If this was the bottom it would've been bought up by now. Even a push higher into this afternoon is likely meaningless at this point. The bulls had...

This is assuming SP will jump on P&D, or at least it will have bottomed before? Of course this is possible, perhaps probable depending on the technical setup leading up to P&D, but seems like a complete guess at this point. Especially with 4 more weeks of trading before P&D. When the bears broke...

Most notable difference was SP was quick to bounce in May 2022 but much slower to retest its prior low. This time the opposite seems to have happened with SP climbing more slow and steady but falling quicker and steeper.

Thanks for the unbiased TA. Your analysis is extremely insightful. The high volume break yesterday seems like a good indicator of new lows to come, but still worth watching PA at 175.