Search results

Over time I'd expect there to be some differentiation in the model for short distance vs long distance travel. I could see long distance robotaxis being somewhat larger and having a setup more akin to business/first class seats (i.e. seats that can convert from upright to lie flat) so you can...

Agree. Moreover, the deal was in place when they bought the shares so there’s no excuse if they didn't know what they were purchasing.

It's also unheard of for the CEO comp package to be overturned due to, what I believe, is a politically hostile juristiction. Agree that advertising is weird but so are the underlying causes.

We already know why he changed direction of the company. We also have plenty of history that he was focused on making a profitable, rock solid EV for a profit - It's called his career at Tesla from 2003 to now.

While I'd like revenue recognition to be as quick as sales, it will come with deployment. The important thing is capacity ramp, with revenue recognition being more of an accounting / ops point rather than anything relevant to value growth.

Russian amplifies story that aligns with their personal wishes.

Speak to most people who work in finance. The hatchet will fall for less of a reason than "my bosses boss screwed up". If the directive comes from the top that costs need to drop you'll be collecting your box of personal items from HR without ever going back to the building.

I understand why you would be looking to blame others for issues inside Russia, but it's not really very helpful or useful to do so. Putin invaded Ukraine as a war of conquest and regardless of whether the bomb came from Russia or elsewhere it's Putin's fault it landed on those innocent people...

For some strange reason one of the weird tweets from Elon that sticks with me the most is from the Covid lockdown where he said "if you don't make any stuff then nobody has any stuff". It (being any topic) is either done or it's not. If not, accept not, or change the situation until done.

It's an interesting idea. Tesla could use the capital raised from selling a minority stake in those ventures to fund expansion plans while not giving up too much vertical integration, and giving an investor like WEB an avenue to deploy funds for growth in return for relatively stable revenues...

I agree with you that the end to end version of FSD seems like the probable solution for FSD but my confidence in when the combination of data, compute, and algo improvement will get us to the point of FSD is low - 3 years or 10 years and I wouldn't be surprised. The phenomenal growth rates of...

Speaking of hitting birds. There is a common bird in Australia called a Galah, and during harvest season they gather on the edges of the road to eat bits of grain that have spilled off the top of wheat trucks, and eat so much they can't get off the ground. So the speed limit to not hit them is...

The speed limit is only set at 55mph because humans are bad drivers with poor reaction speed and distraction. I'd expect limits to go up in the longer term once robodriving is the majority of miles travelled, particularly in a highway setting.

Who is advising whom?

This is pure speculation - I wonder if this could be related to a broader shift in manufacturing to China, leaving Tom to continue to run a large part of Tesla while still being VP of Tesla China. Megapactory China is going up - someone needs to oversee this facility and Tom did an amazing job...

If option 2 was cheap and appropriate for all circumstances on the Tesla line, Tesla would have fired all their meat bags on the assembly lines already. There's clearly plenty of circumstances where option 2 is not relevant. And this only relates to the very first step of highly repetitive...

I don't think Tesla are fully leaving the cheap car market, but they are clearly putting more resources into the direction that can genuinely differentiate their product vs competition. So they are competing, just with less focus on the race to the bottom on costs and more focus on increasing...

There's been a lot of speculation around Tesla pivoting hard to AI/FSD/RoboTaxi over the last few weeks. It feels more risky because dumb EVs have done us very well over the last few years, but after some soul searching I think it's the right thing to do to swing for the fences to make a product...

I agree. I've got thumb RSI scrolling through "plausibly deniable" bad faith discussions. I'm not accusing anyone of anything but I would like to link some resources for people that are easily troll baited. Please read, take 5 deep breaths and gather your thoughts before responding to items...

Would you like a list?

Investors are being very clever to use as many existing grid connections as they can, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to what is needed. The whole industry needs to upskill and update their regulations to address this. A decent article below that goes into details and some quotes: UK...

If COGS for stationary storage comes down so will the price that can be charged for stationary storage. Having multiple suppliers means price competition. The demand limiting factor for the rollout of stationary storage is not cells or cell price (although more cheap cells is better for...

Don't know unfortunately. I haven't owned one while living here.

I wouldn't call it a massive pain, but it is an ongoing moderate nuisance. Electricity in London is pretty expensive in general. My home rate is ~50% of the Ubitricity rate.

This is my primary method of charging. Ubitricity has a "lamppost" charger outside my terrace, although in this case I think the wiring in 100yo lamp posts is so terrible they put in a little bollard next to the post to run the charger. In terms of good and bad: ➕ I likely wouldn't have...

With a jawline like that it would be rude not to have it broadcast around the world.

When the big strategy calls need to be made, BiggiE always steps up. Great to see him getting hands on to drive the next era of Tesla (which ironically, won't be needed when autonomy is solved)

Agree, and it was in reference to when Tesla was throwing off profits in the RoboTaxi era. That's the natural time for any company to start buybacks - when they have gone through their heavy CapEx period and their product matures and starts to throw off cash. I doubt Elon was ever against...

I'd say "Model 2" is the same but Tesla has introduced the "Model 2.5" which is a mix of current and new tech to shrink the gap between growth cycles. Makes a lot of sense if they can do it from a manufacturing perspective.

@unk45 time to buy?

It's an interesting one. Traditionally we had obvious trolls with names inspired by avians or various weather conditions. The last little while has seen the emergence of several prolific accounts that worry about many concerns but don't cross the line into wildly flagrant lies/criticism, but...

Some of these points resonate with me but I think there's quite a few items that will change with a cheap, ubiquitous RoboTaxi, should FSD be solved: Uber is just a proxy for shorthand comparison. The value of all ride hailing Co's, taxis, private hire companies, etc is likely getting into the...

You shouldn't use analogy here. Build it up from first principles. revenue per mile is established in the marketplace, so little need to discuss Costs: RT cost divided by lifetime miles energy per mile * your assumption on energy price Maintenance for EV's is low but do the same calc per mile...

Most labour cost is buried in COGS. Only that not directly attributable to the making of the vehicle is covered in OpEx / R&D, etc. COGS was $17.5b last quarter.

The LT framework should be RoboTaxi business model rather than subscription revenue. Work out revenue and cost per mile and multiply by # miles driven. Revenue: ~$1-$2 / mile (uber benchmark) All in operational cost: $0.15-$0.30 / mile (depending on your assumptions around energy price, asset...

Good point - Lithium is down 60% over the last 12 months after spiking in 2021 Nickel is seeing a bit of a run but still down on 2023 prices Not to mention any technical innovation Tesla has implemented they brings down the idiot index. I'm not hopeful for strong margins this quarter but at...

Whenever I hear of a special committed for an independent review I assume it goes something like this.

I'm more confident than ever that a buyback won't happen. They need to spend every dollar they can spare on GPUs until FSD/optimus product is solved.

Tesla has been hoovering up the best engineering talent in the world for the last decade if the surveys for best places to work are accurate. Sad to see Drew go, but there must be an astonishing number of brilliant engineers at Tesla we have never heard of that now have years of experience and...

Interesting, the reduction in 3 sales in the US (minus 24k vehicles YoY) explains over half of the reduction in Q1 YoY deliveries.

Purely in terms of financeability, Tesla would be better off starting robotaxi with a steering wheel installed. It would provide downside protection to lenders in the event that Tesla goes broke as the lenders would be able to sell the vehicles to mitigate any losses. Unless there is another...

Every major bank, especially if the payback period is [guessing here] less than a year while margins are high prior to market saturation.

Even though it may go against your morals, this post was asking for a typo.

That's the first time Tony Abbott has been associated with a good perspective/argument.

Do they mention the size of the battery pack. It must be enormous. Seems like pretty good value.

It's great that Ukraine may get this soon but devastating it wasn't delivered a long time ago.

BYD 300k EV sales according to twitter. Not sure if this is April fools. Only other source I can find is from a Chinese EV site where eyeballing their last 3 months BEV sales looks about right with the tweet BYD sells 302,459 NEVs in Mar, 2nd-highest on record

Doubt. Give it another year. The manufacturing plant only has earthworks done so far and manufacturing for the large amount of cells for 40k/yr Semi's hasn't started yet. Semi will be a hit, but not by EOY.

MKBHD has finally started doing sufficient research into his EV reviews. The early videos were terrible. He still overpriced a new Tesla by about $20k just a few weeks ago. Hopefully this standard continues. His visuals are amazing - some of the best out there.

Just a speed bump and one we knew was coming due to factory construction. Q1 is also the slow quarter of the year for vehicle sales. Once Gen3 launches we'll be down to 2 months or less per million.