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  1. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You are correct on point one and your fear is absolutely correct on bicycling. FSD at scale will make it much safer to mix light unarmored vehicles with cars/trucks. Until then riding either with cars/trucks will result in a very high death rate. We need more bicycle paths in the USA.
  2. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That's fine with me, it's your choice and you recognize it's dangerous.
  3. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If pedestrians decide to run down a highway at 80mph I bet they would have worse than donor cycles 400% increase in accidents and 1600% increase in mortality and I absolutely would not care. Motorcyclist know they are engaging in an extremely risky behavior, if they wish to engage in that it is...
  4. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Driving a vehicle with no armor on a highway full of vehicles with 10x the mass, the vehicle moniker is "donor cycle" ...whose brain is the issue? Only 1 person, the person that got on a donor cycle.
  5. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    big utilities will likely favor Telsa because the purchasing manager won't get fired for buying megapacks. After a while that fades. It's a good/bad sort of thing.
  6. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Incidentally I suspect this is partly why he needs shares...so he can't get called on twitter debt if Tesla tanks this fall. I bet he needs to sell shares in July/August/Sept so he can close out debt.
  7. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It was so bad that revenues fell so much and hate was so bad he's had to hire an build out teams full of the function he fired...so he lost major customers and his staff is almost back to pre EM days. BRILLIANT. That's why banks value the debt at 25 cents on the dollar.
  8. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There is literally no such thing IMO. If that walking scumbag say sit, you must run.
  9. N

    Waymo

    So then you are getting into the very rules that Asimov contemplated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics Can you imagine...what a mind. 1942. So we are simply late to an 80 year old conversation Asimov was having with himself.
  10. N

    Waymo

    Right now only 9 but clearly EM is planning to roll that out in 12.6. Why do you think all the work on flamethrowers and very aggressive driving.
  11. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Sunwarrior I hate to say I agree. I think there is much virtue signaling and little real work. In our industry we see VCs sloppy happy drunk to fund "climate tech" associated with carbon credits but when you really pull back the carbon credit business you find 3 VC backed middlemen and...
  12. N

    Waymo

    Why? They could do this to a human driver today? all the rules apply except the RT will have video.
  13. N

    Waymo

    exactly, don't automate a way to deal with a problem. Remove it. Basic tenet of engineering.
  14. N

    Waymo

    ask loss prevention about this
  15. N

    Waymo

    Good question.
  16. N

    Waymo

    sensing platform is all wrong, not disability friendly, hard to clean. If you really designed a rt platform a zeekr is about what you'd want.
  17. N

    Waymo

    The Zeekr is just a perfect RT vehicle. When do tarrifs come into play? This is an interesting development, not great for Waymo maybe.
  18. N

    I am frankly shocked by how stunningly ugly the Cybertruck is

    I still think it would be an awesome work truck but at 40k, not 100k. I can wait. I actually don't want the look at that, pic taking. White ford f150 is about perfect.
  19. N

    I am frankly shocked by how stunningly ugly the Cybertruck is

    Wow you guys are up pretty high in elevation?
  20. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think that early days in RT service we won't really have any idea what unit economics are like. How much ad revenue can google extract from Waymo? No idea, to me it's clear where Waymo has been headed. They thought vehicle X would get there, they canceled that and bought vehicle Y, it's...
  21. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Omar normally just produces stupid videos pumping Tesla developing automation, which is fine, they are completely disingenuous but that is what he does and anyone that has seen his "FSD is around the corner" video from half a decade ago knows this. This latest thing is a below the belt hack job...
  22. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    q1 USA auto sales were UP 4.5%, projection is for strong continued growth. Or do you mean Tesla car market is slowing down? Or that EV sales are down? I personally think that without lineup diversification and some new program on charging infrastructure you'll see issues with Tesla. Most...
  23. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    They will be out in 10 cities by the end of next year and that is what they service with the 50k vehicles they bought from Geely. They are basically telling you exactly what they'll do. It's not a secret. They think 50k vehicles covers 10 cities more or less. That's about what Uber has...
  24. N

    Waymo

    Ohhh that is another whole ball of wax. Yes, that would aid sustainability. If TaaS goes in for ride sharing than the Waymo type vehicle will be perfect. I tiny sub model 3 vehicle not so much.
  25. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You explain your position well. I don't think the issue is actually whether or not it can work. It will surely be longer than many want but will also surely work. I firmly don't believe it makes transport sustainable and I don't believe the profits will be there. The roll-out will be...
  26. N

    Waymo

    It could be twice as large ...who cares. It's mostly going to be dense cities, the model doesn't scale and it is not at all sustainable, the opposite. Tony Seba has done the world a disservice with pimping TaaS. It can't handle the #1 issue with any regional traffic planning test. Commuting...
  27. N

    Waymo

    Also it should be noted that Waymo is testing in 10 cities right now so I think they could pretty much eat Ubers profit in 2 years. They may leave out NYC due to litigious and govt regs but...I could see the gutting Ubers profits in the USA. Uber is very profitable in London & Rio to name a...
  28. N

    Waymo

    Btw that is exactly on spect 3k per day per city. Almost mirrors Uber stats. yes Uber is tremendously expensive, its why nobody really commutes with Uber if they do it is usually the result of another TaaS utilization factor- parking, entertainment, travel. Oh, I hear some companies reimburse...
  29. N

    Waymo

    I think they only use 100 at a time in a city. It's just purely trial work. I'm also an Uber sceptic but with costs control Uber is creating a bit of profit but huge losses in most cities. The profit comes from 2 handfuls of cities- I think up to 12.
  30. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    On top of that now Tesla is offering 0% financing. The oldest trick in the OEM database of ways to drive sales. The other things are still there, price cuts, FSD deals, etc. Now 0% money when interest is not 0%. Free FSD transfer or supercharging is one thing, this is new. What does this...
  31. N

    Waymo

    To better flush that out....I think with 200k vehicles Waymo could completely replace Uber's profit centers in the USA. Easily.
  32. N

    Waymo

    Comparison to the US auto fleet: 7.8 billion tips per week. The Tesla fleet in the USA is what, 2.5 mln? Just a guess. So they should be doing just under 42 mln ( 2.5 mln *2.4 rides a day* 7) rides a week right now. It's nothing but it does illustrate just how few people actually use Uber...
  33. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    So are you advocating for Tesla to do something that most on the thread laughed about OEMs doing? If Tesla moves to have a dealer network is that great or ?
  34. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    And this is where things get funny to me. Gigapress saying EVs will facilitate more miles driven...ie...more unsustainable activity. Where the real goal should be reduction of miles driven. Then the obvious corollary that the EVs driving all these miles will be deadheading a bunch...like a...
  35. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What's funny is that people advocating for FSD don't seem to realize that means FULL compliance with laws. 55mph zone...55 mph it will be. Full stop at stop signs...slow in traffic control zones, etc etc. The other irony is that is 30 or 40 years when FSD really is widespread the US traffic...
  36. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Nature abhors a vacuum and EM communication style creates huge vacuums and high noise.
  37. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Making assumptions like : "each vehicle with FSD is capable of replacing 10"... Is an assumption that has failed the test TaaS has applied til now. The reasons bear examination. They slow rolled the semi because they did not have batteries, the 4680 didn't scale..so they still didn't have...
  38. N

    Waymo

    This is going to be one of the greatest benefits of RTs, at least IMO. Elderly, disability, substance abusers are largely shut off from society due in part to mobility issues.
  39. N

    Waymo

    Of course in the background and likely very important is that Waymo and Geely have started shipping the new RT platform to California and earlier this year Geely was advertising jobs to service the vehicles. So, that's also happening at the same time Waymo is doing some odd things.
  40. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Exactly, Uber didn't alter car ownership. It altered the convenience and safety of traveling and entertaining. Both for the better. We've hashed it all out before but TaaS numbers just don't work at the scale people think in the time they think. Driving a bmw is or M3P is not a logical...
  41. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In fact the best posters did scram, karen, petit, accountant, etc etc I could go on and on. If some other company does X it's stupid, if Tesla does it it's brilliant. Reuters hates Tesla and reports lies and then crickets when then are in fact correct about a news story. None of the sunshine...
  42. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Yes it was. It was blatantly deceiving. Its why they had to change the FSD contract language because they realized there was no way in hell it was actually going to be self driving.
  43. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Because he's not paying attention when driving? Somehow I manage to drive just fine without it. I was driving home in my Semi yesterday and someone cut me off but that is the only close call I've had and honestly it ticked me off because I was texting my wife about picking up some more whisky...
  44. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Steve is not getting on saying this iphone is something you can buy today, it was pre-release and oh...they released it just about on time. EM sold that FSD the very next day. If one can't understand the difference between showing a mockup and selling something that does not actually exist and...
  45. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Ports are full of unsold Chinese EVs. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Belgiums-Ports-Are-Brimming-With-Unsold-Chinese-EVs.html
  46. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla does have some history of staging things, remember summoning in a parking lot, etc etc etc.
  47. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well, I keep harping on battery battery battery and Troy at least has a viable and useful explanation and EM is not saying anything. Systems hate vacuums and the lack of information from the investor management team at Tesla allows space for speculation. At least Troy has some sense about...
  48. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He didn't invest in Microsoft for decades and still did ok. His approach is to wait til FSD is somewhat sorted before buying.
  49. N

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That it is a retailer. Low margin business. Every decision is absolutely examined for returns. An insurance company, an oil company, a bank, etc...any of those could do at least as much as Walmart. IMO the second best was Ford. They spent a lot of time and energy right before 2008 on...