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Thank you for your support, and I agree with your "break even or slight annual profit for 2018" call. 2018 GAAP profitability would have immense implications, so your prediction is critical. Kudos for making a bold call and good luck.

It's a shame that Moody's hasn't upgraded Tesla already, frankly. Maybe they are waiting for Tesla to pay down/off the converts, or their valued clients who are caught short to cover first before the upgrade pushes the stock higher? Difficult to know which...

That's right! I did see that! Thank you. Not that I was looking for anyone to defend me, but I thought it was admirable that you did that.

Why, thank you. It was eating me inside that I couldn't thank this post. Not sure why I thought I'd still be able to agree/disagree while banned. There's only one way to resolve this.

I don’t know how they get to 10k/w Model 3’s without putting up a couple of more tents and another paint shop, say by next summer.

"end up like Troy" - detail-oriented, data-driven, useful, factual, and right? Sign me up! @Troy is a legend as far as I'm concerned. Obviously not; I thought Tesla would first start international deliveries of Long Range. I'm working on an ASP/margin article, which will allow me to think...

Speculation. Note that I was the only person who pointed out the negative margin impact, which the market priced in today.

Electric-Car Market Share In 2013: Understanding The Numbers Better "In the United States, each price drop of $5,000 roughly doubles the buyer pool; conversely, a $5,000 price increase halves the number of people who can buy the car." On a separate note, @RobStark , are you still predicting...

October 31 is the likely date, but Tesla may drop it at any time. There is no requirement to announce a date. November 7 is also a potential date.

No automaker other than Tesla will be profitable in 2019.

VW is building an all-electric vehicle factory for 300,000 cars per year in China

4.5k/w, and yes.

Yes; MR supports the mission by accelerating market share growth while not driving the company into bankruptcy. I'm calculating the specific margin impact, but the overall company profitability will clearly continue into 2019 with triple-digit top-line growth. Pretty sweet deal.

TMC is to Bulls what SA is to Bears: an echo chamber. It's definitely not the place for "the most accurate" information if there is such a thing. It's best to read about a dozen individuals who have a proven track record while avoiding those who only post in one direction like the plague. For...

MR will command less margin than LR, but don’t discount the positive impact of higher fixed asset AND labor cost absorption on the rest of the production. If Tesla keeps MR production limited, to say 2k/w, then margins will likely continue to improve.

“Something that Tesla desperately needs right now.” How do you explain the fact that Tesla neither needs nor wants external capital, if it so desperately needs it? The fact is that Tesla never had a “cash crunch” problem; it was a perception that TSLAQ created and non-financial savvy bulls ate...

This is actually a concern. Why not produce 7,000+ LR and ship to int’l? Or if cells are the limiting factor, why not increase price and ship int’l? Or why not price MR only $2k lower. MR will likely command lower margin; Mix will be important.

It’ll stay as deferred revenue

Cash flow is counted when the cash comes in...

Yep, agreed. Your situation is the norm: SA to TMC to enlightenment to Elon Time to the endless wait, but you came in at a good price, so you should be fine, but that’s what I said when I started too. Good luck to you.

Echo chamber. There is some, sporadic useful discussion, but you have to exactly know whom to follow, while also watching out for propaganda machines. The more substantive discussions happen in sub-threads, and rarely on Market Action/General investor threads.

Not the rest of the forum, just a dozen or so Vigilantes: long-time members, never see negative with the company or management, heavily criticize the ones who do, keeping to the same emotional abuse playbook. I have *in fact* seen one refer to it as “emotional warfare.” They see it as a crusade...

Thanks for the unsolicited advice; no sweating here, and zero weight placed on how much I'm "respected" by TMC Vigilantes... seriously?!

Lemur will arrive in 3 days maybe, 6 days definitely.

Do you think it's wrong to recommend professional help to someone, if they can benefit from it?

First, NASDAQ is the index to use. Second, dividend-adjusted prices must be used. Third, the risk in Tesla and its insane volatility need to be incorporated. I'll put it nicely... your analysis is incomplete.

Step 2: Discredit, even though it has nothing to do with the specifics being discussed. The TMC Vigilante playbook is too predictable. Did you have anything to say about the nearly five-year flat stock performance being pushed aside to mislabel concerned retail investors as short-term...

There rush in the TMC Vigilantes trying to bully concerned, factual bulls out of the stock with their straw man arguments.

Yep, it's my fault. Everyone else predicted that we'd be flat for nearly five years, while I miscalculated the risks. I wonder what caused that? Elon Musk on Twitter Elon Musk on Twitter Elon Musk on Twitter Elon Musk on Twitter Elon Musk on Twitter Musk: This Is the 'Best I’ve Felt' About...

Most everyone knows I fight FUD on SA/Twitter/other just like many others, but minimizing and labeling multi-year investor concerns as "bitching about it" is not helpful. SA articles likely do not have a significant negative effect on the stock in the longer term, defined as nearly five years...

Again, you are missing the essence of my post, which is that many more than just short-term speculators have been hurt by the stock's long-term performance. Four years is a very, very long time for retail investors. Failing to acknowledge this is denying important facts... for what purpose...

First, is an 8% annualized return what justifies Tesla's insane volatility? Second, my post says "nearly five years;" the high price on February 24, 2014: $265 per share. Third, the point of the post was to show that even mid-term and long-term investors have suffered, not just short-term...

Please don't minimize investor concerns by labeling it as some sort of short-sighted rent-seeking. The fact is that the stock hasn't done anything in nearly five years, while NASDAQ doubled. Per your definition, with which I agree, that's long-term. This has nothing to do with FUD or living in...

"Short burn of the century" wasn't so coded, and we know how that turned into long burn of the century. There are many examples like that, but can you think of one example when any of the tweets turned out well for longs?

Tesla is NOT a private business; that’s the whole point. Tesla is a publicly traded company owned by its shareholders, including Elon at about one-fifth of the company, but also tens of thousands of other investors, protected by rules and regulations. I don’t know why fining Elon $20m would be...

Could you please provide support/link for “Elon would have won the lawsuit was an opinion also voiced by a former SEC lead counsel?” - thanks in advance.

And who’s been screaming at the top of their lungs to stop the tweets? [Raises hand] Yes, Tesla should have had the controls in place. Another sign that the investor base has become way too conforming: the same investors who are making the independent chair deal to be a positive outcome...

Thank you. Unfortunately, we are in the minority, because of the incredible echo chamber TMC/investor base has become, leaving all dissent to TSLAQ nonsense. This is a significant risk factor, in my opinion.

I have already stated that it is the principle, which many are missing by calculating the minute dilutive effect, and how this adds to the bigger picture problem I pointed out. You have avoided addressing my point, again, and instead personally attacked me with generalizations. I see no use in...

Tesla should have fined Elon, as I stated many times. Instead of acknowledging my suggestion, you instead decided to "play to the crowds” with a straw man. Have fun with the many likes and funnies you received ;) but please don't waste my time if you won't move the conversation forward.

The fact that you just identified me as a bear says it all. I rest my case.

If Elon is allowed to make many mistakes in the name of innovation, why aren't his employees when they stand up to him? What kind of an incentive structure does always having to be correct create for an employee who may have a useful suggestion, but just isn't 100 percent sure?

Here’s the link to the Electrek article, which independently reaches the same, obvious conclusion that I did: Elon Musk is buying $20 million more of Tesla shares – seemingly to compensate for SEC settlement fine

Because no one at Tesla stands up to Elon. Any employee who does is fired, and any investor who dissents is ridiculed by TMC Vigilante via petty disagrees and coordinated emotional abuse. This, not FUD, is the single most significant threat to Tesla and its mission.

I fully understand the transaction. You don’t seem to think independently from management. Have you ONCE criticized the management for the numerous mistakes made in the last year? This isn’t about the level of dilution; it’s the principle: Elon f’ed up, and Tesla should have fined him, instead...

Elon can do whatever he wants at the open market, subject to the law, but what I suggested is that Tesla should have fined him $20m, instead of issuing shares to him at these insanely discounted prices, which dilutes existing shareholders... for a tweet that should have never been sent.

It reduces the per-share value of future cash flows, ceteris paribus. This isn't investment income; it's pure dilution for existing shareholders that value the stock at more than current price: i.e. all investors. It's clear to me at this point that no one stands up to Elon at Tesla, and...

In that case, why is Tesla issuing shares to Elon, which dilutes existing shareholders, instead of fining him for the second $20 million? With this arrangement, Tesla will show $20m higher than otherwise SG&A and higher share count, both of which hurt investors... makes no sense.

How Tesla will produce 10k/w on 210 acres is another question...

"We expect construction to begin in the near future after we get all the necessary approvals and permits. From there, it will take roughly two years until we start producing vehicles and then another two to three years before the factory is fully ramped up to produce around 500,000 vehicles per...