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Hey @Papafox , do we have any information that confirms that a single shift at GF3 is 8hrs? The other possibility is that they work 12hr shifts, and scaling that up then only doubles production. I know thats not particularly likely in a manufacturing setting, but that's coming from a Western...

@TrendTrader007 , @Papafox , @neroden , I've been trying to figure out some guidelines for minimizing risk/reward on options positions, and I was thinking you guys with more experience might be able to help. First off, apologies to Papafox for borrowing your thread for this. And second, TT007...

Ihor just posted a Friday-ending short interest of ~32m shares. That seems really high to me, given the price action. I expected shorts are going to have to cover down to ~24m once we got above $300, but if both myself and Ihor are right, then there's plenty more rocket fuel left onboard. More...

Tesla sandbagged their delivery numbers when acting like they'd just barely make 91k deliveries. I wonder if they sandbagged their profitability numbers as well in guiding for a small loss in Q2. Reporting a large profit would be the one way I see for them to get a huge SP jump from this ER...

I dislike listening to Cramer even when he's being reasonable because most of the time he's unreasonable and sometimes it can be hard to tell. As Papafox has said before: wolf in sheeps clothing. (I'm beginning to think the same of Dan Ives.) Anyway, allow me to share with you a quote on this...

@Papafox I NEED MY FIX!!!!

I feel my two cents is relevant enough to toss it into the pot today, for your consideration: I was quite surprised the market moved not a whit after that excellent presentation on Tesla's autonomy lead. Elon could have done a better job breaking down the weakness of Lidar instead of just...

Just FYI, to anyone who's still holding out hope, the ship on the convertible bonds has pretty much sailed. The stock price would need to go to the ATH and stay there for the next two weeks in order for people to justify converting. Bondholders will take their money (and not convert) if the...

Elon did promise the short squeeze of the century, but unfortunately not the short squeeze of 2018... Or even 2019. The trouble is Tesla's valuation is based on expected future earnings. So a small change those expectations creates a big move in valuation. And especially with a lunatic with...

They do suffer the dilution. And this is within the terms of the prospectus. It specified that if anyone chooses to convert, Tesla will have three options: 1) convert to Shares -- at 2.7788 shares per $1000 bond. Effective price ~360. This option has tesla issuing new shares to cover their 920M...

Apparently they decided to split the difference. I just read a bloomberg article that said Tesla elected to go with the Combination 'cash + shares' option, and pay back 50% of the bond value. So I was wrong when I said "we would have heard by now". I guess the prospectus was a challenging read...

First up: A huge thank you to @neroden, and everyone else who contributed to answering my question about buying the 2019 notes. I would have posted my thanks earlier, but I try not to fill space on the msg board until I have something useful to say. The conclusion to my analysis was to stick...

One would get 2.7788 shares which they could sell for $400. I guess i should have been more clear on that. To my (limited) understanding of convertible bonds, the way it would work is at the maturity day (march 1st in this case) you either get your bonds converted to shares (2.7788 shares per...

Ok guys, I need a bit of help. I need someone to talk me out of what must be a bad idea. I looked into the convertible bonds. (Cusip 88160RAB7) this morning. I can't remember the time, but lets assume Tesla was trading at 350. They quoted me a price of 100.67. So each note would cost $1006.70...

Thanks for the detailed explanation @neroden. I took a quick poke around to see if I could buy some of the convertible bonds myself, and just couldn't figure out how. I saw some reports that say they were trading at 90% yield. That sounds stupidly cheap to me. I'm guessing that doesnt include...

Does anyone have any insight on how short margin calls work? I mean if you get margin called as a long, the broker will sell *some* of your shares to bring your margin back into balance. Selling shares puts cash in the account and reduces the risk (to the broker) of the falling share price...

Ex-squeeze me. I just wanted to throw in my two cents on Dusaniwsky's comments... I don't think his second comment was a retraction on the first at all. I think they tie together perfectly, actually. In the first, he said a squeeze would take the SP ballistic, but its very hard to tell at what...

Great news. What's the source? I cant find details about this anywhere.

Man, that tweet made me so happy. I was so incredibly disappointed when Elon took that settlement -- despite the SP upside -- and now it seems like he's still fighting. =D The settlement doesn't make any sense to me. Either you're right and you fight for it, or you're wrong and you settle...

Are there any "price increase" circuit breakers to be aware of if we have a large enough gap up or increase over the trading day?

My apologies, you are correct. Can someone confirm that the uptick rule is currently in effect then?

One correction to your circuit breaker calculations, @Papafox: I believe the circuit breaker will be set at 10% below the market open price, not previous close. So we'll only know at 09:30. But assuming the current price holds, and market opens around $270, the circuit breaker should be set...

I just saw Ihor Dusaniwsky's latest short chart on twitter. Does it seem to anyone else like past numbers have changed? I'm sure the previous chart I saw had shares shorted peaking over 35mill. I'm hoping its a typo on one side or the other, but if not then we need to question how concrete the...

I think the situation you're picturing is technically possible, but practically unlikely. Unless someone has control over how orders are batched together and is deliberately manipulating it, the figure we get on a given day should be representative (relative to other days) of short activity over...

The rule only impacts the ability to *sell* borrowed shares (to sell short). It allows longs to sell at market rate (and bring the price down), but forces shorts to sell a little above market rate. So they have to wait for someone to accept their attempt to sell. There is no change for anyone...

Hey y'all. I've been looking into this SEC rule 201 and trying to wrap my head around what the effect is going to be on Monday. Here's what I got so far. Could you guys with more experience let me know what you think. The rule prevents a short seller from accepting the current bid and thereby...

Actually, as a long, I'm invested in Elon - both his technical ability and his leadership is what I believe will put Tesla in the same strata as Apple, Amazon and Google. My biggest fear - and one for most longs I think - is Elon not leading. That would reduce Tesla's long term growth rate...

Actually, its not that clear. I, too, think he did mean model 3, but its definitely not what Kallo said. And mershaw offered the correction in a *really* respectful manner. No need to jump down his throat and accuse him of playing for the other team. That attitude makes us an echo chamber, and...

Hmmm... Curious: When does all the after hours trading get accounted? Is that why we keep seeing massive numbers in the first minute of trading, or are those statistics and volumes ignored in the daily charts?

Hey guys. I've been following this thread for months now and finally decided to make an account, so I can ask you all some burning questions that've been bugging me for a while. First off, I have to start by saying a big thank you to @Papafox for your analyses. I look forward to reading it...