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  1. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    What will drive the $900 Mio in Q4 vs Q3 2019 in Revenue? Thanks a lot for your feedback
  2. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Germans barely move...and if they move they (mostly) will not go to the Netherlands (except for vacation)
  3. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Dear all, I am still struggeling with the potential Impact of deferred Revenue for Q3. Looking at the 10-Q filing from Q2: Revenue Recognition Automotive Sales Revenue Automotive Sales with and without Resale Value Guarantee Automotive sales revenue includes revenues related to...
  4. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Thanks !!! Very helpful. How does the surprisingly high lease Accounting influence cash flow? Doesn`t Tesla have to pay the cost of goods for all this cars and only partly (to match the lease income) book into the P&L as cost? And they will only receive a small portion as income? Cheers
  5. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla Carriers According to the carriers spreadsheet there is a ship expected to arrive today (and one tomorrow). Are there already lots of cars at the pier for international delivery? That would mean Tesla is already unwinding the wave ! Thanks !
  6. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Could there be a potential write down of a part of the $6,200,704 net solar Energy Systems on the balance sheet driven by the Walmart case? If I understand the case correctly the ~200 Systems were already shut down in 2018 generating no income? If yes, how much Risk is there?
  7. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    $47M restructuring were already announced in the Q10 of Q1 2019 - page 16 The in-process research and development (“IPR&D”), which we acquired from SolarCity, is accounted for as an indefinite-lived asset until the completion or abandonment of the associated research and development efforts...
  8. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thanks, yes, I meant if you buy a car from the current stock that is already produced.
  9. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If you have bought a new Model 3 out of stock did you have the chance to negotiate a further rebate or incentive? Or does Tesla still stick with the list price published on their website if you buy a new car out of the stock? Would be great to hear some experience...
  10. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    From my point of view Tesla is still production contrained concerning the Model 3. Otherwise I would have expected that they send 1-2 ships earlier to Europe... I am expecting Tesla to guide for 95k deliveries in Q3 and 105k in Q4 with the help of China GF4. As the inventory is quite low I...
  11. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Dear all, was there any communication concerning the Gigafactory 2 Milestone? Text from 10Q April 2019 Gigafactory 2 We have an agreement with the SUNY Foundation related to the construction of a facility in Buffalo, New York, referred to as Gigafactory 2, where we have housed the...
  12. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Thanks, good idea - I used his S&X data as starting point and then calculated the Model 3 cogs. This makes more sense ! Except the Cogs M3 for Q1 2019. I don`t understand the Driver for an increase vs Q4 2018 - especially as the produced volume increased slightly. I think you are aware that...
  13. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    As I said, the split between Model 3 and S&X was done by myself and can be discussed…. I left the Cogs for Model 3 constant, as the volume was more or less constant. To reach the reported cost the S&X Cogs had to be increased. Key Driver is for sure the lower productions volume ~25.000 each...
  14. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Dear EVNow, thanks for your Input in my model the ASP is a function of the "real" automotive deliveries excluding ieasing and the "real" automotive Sales less shown adjustments. Only the split of the ASP between S&X and Model 3 is done by myself - and for sure open for discussion. Of course...
  15. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Deferred Revenue is an interesting Topic ! Can somebody explain why there are 2 lines for Deferred Revenue - Balance sheet from March 2019? Deferred revenue 762,810 Deferred revenue, net of current portion 1,157,343 And are there any corresponding Cogs activated? Or will - if all Features...
  16. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Dear EVNow, first of all thanks a lot for your great work and that you even posted the original file. That was very helpful !!!! A lot of folks look at the gross margin percentage which I find quite misleading due to several driver that dilute this number. Therefor I am trying to carve...
  17. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    But are all 400k Reservations delivered? Correct me but up to Q1 there were 218k Model 3 produced. And now there will 9k per quarter for reservations delivered. Therefore I would guess that in total 250k reservations will be delivered...and the rest was probably canceled...
  18. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    this driven by the accounting standards of US Gaap when you can recognize revenue...
  19. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Price reductions and unfavorable mix (more model 3 - less S X
  20. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hello, if I would assume a average M3 produktion of 6k per week this would lead to 78k produced M3 plus roughly 20 k Model S&X I would expect 98k produced Teslas in Q2. If Tesla is going to have a record deliveries of 91k there would be still a increase in inventory of 7k. My understanding...
  21. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Hello, 2 rather simple questions: 1) What exactly is meant with unwinding the wave? 2) Do the new tariffs in China since 1st of June apply also to Tesla? If yes, what is the percentage and for which deliveries does the new tariff apply? Thanks for your help Cheers
  22. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    If the ASP drops by If the ASP drops due to price reductions from $105k to $100k and Tesla sells 100k X/S Tesla will loose $500M, or?
  23. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Dear all, could anybody explain what is this about? MS hosting cross-asset TSLA conf call tomorrow. seems like next cap raise will require both sides of the balance sheet to cooperate.... Source: Themarketear.com Thanks for your insight
  24. M

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Tesla is currently making no profit and in the long run Tesla need to justify 37 Bn market cap with currently 4.6 Bn equity. This is a lot discounted cash flow Tesla needs to generate in the future...
  25. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Thanks for your Feedback ! 1) I think this can not be the reason if Tesla wants to be profitable starting Q3 (except there will be a price increase / favorable mix starting in Q3) 2) agree 3) I doubt that leasing has such a negative impact. I far as I know the complete leasing revenue can be...
  26. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Hello, I am wondering that Tesla announced a probable US-GAAP loss in Q2. Given the delivery guidance of 90.000 - 100.000 vehicles and the fact that the number of employees was reduced by 16 % end of Q1 vs end of Q4 2019. Do you know what is driving this loss? thanks !
  27. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Thanks for your Feedback ! Mathematically you are Right. But from an Accounting perspective the common equity is Changed by the P&L result (+60.112) , changes in common stock (I am not Aware of) and other comprehensive loss / income that is normally not significant. Therefore from my Point of...
  28. M

    Near-future quarterly financial projections

    Great Job your estimate. One Questions: Why increases the common equity by more than 1.055.000 ? Kind regards