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I just voted my 5000 shares. I didn’t expect it to be so easy. They’re held by IG.com in Australia. I’ve inquired about voting in past meetings and was told “not possible”. Turned out they had emailed me the control number for proxyvote.com two weeks ago. Tesla greased some wheels is my...

FSD timeline and capability update, from the man. Elon Musk: Yeah, seeing it everywhere.Btw, 12.4 goes to internal release this weekend and limited external beta next week. Roughly 5X to 10X improvement in miles per intervention vs 12.3. 12.5 will be out in late June. Will also see a major...

It’s easy to get thrown by Elon’s sudden focus on autonomy. Is it a mission distraction or a mission acceleration? I’ve been asking myself that too. The answer hangs on level of belief that FSD is going to support driverless. If FSD can drop the kids to soccer practice, and you to the train...

At this new low price I’m pretty sure it’s profitable to deploy for arbitrage, not just frequency regulation. People like Matt Smith who said Megapacks only sold because utilities billed “cost plus” should now be believers. e.g. 300 full cycles at 33cents profit per kWh and it’s paid for. A...

I read it to mean that there is no need to apply slight turning force to the wheel, or be nagged to do so, if the camera can see that your hands are on the wheel and your eyes are watching the road. Can the internal cam see the wheel? As near as damnit. If it can’t see hands it can def see...

I was shocked to read that post. Generally Car Dealership Guy’s posts are blissfully unaware that EVs are eating away at the ICE market. His followers are high on the anti-EV index, probably from a high FUD diet. The last thing those followers want to hear is that Musk has the industry by the...

Yes. I’d add that FSD for people is the kick starter to FSD for goods. Amazon must already be looking at their fleet of electric vans and thinking: where’s the FSD computer? Throw in humanoids aboard or at the end points and we’re going to see stuff moving A to B, without fuel, without labour...

There was a lot in those screen images and I suspect they were material in today’s melt up. People in general are not great at picturing things till they see them. I’ve been telling people for a while, Tesla don’t need Uber, the ride hail app is the easy bit. - set your own temperature, choose...

Negligible compared to half an hour of Netflix. It’s only the prompt and the response text that travel. Model updates would also consume a bit, from time to time.

Distributed inference compute farm. Anybody got a ballpark figure on the value of that? If say 50% opted in for 10hrs a day x 7 million cars. Is it a stock price mover? Only downside is the energy use and the sounds of cooling and relays closing coming from the garage. We have excess home solar...

Something to watch while waiting for earnings. Discusses how Tesla 4680 doesn’t need to produce cheaper cells than China to still be a valid strategy. It derisks supply from China monopoly. Listening closely at the end you can almost hear Musk saying this. Seems to solve the mystery of why...

Somewhere in the bottom pic is an exhaust stack, venting the tunnel below. Get caught downwind from it and you get a sense your life expectancy is falling with each breath. Tunnels and electrification are a matched pair. ICE defenders forget this.

80:20 rule will deliver faster improvement than most people intuitively expect. At any one time, 80% of problems arise from 20% of situation types. Tesla are getting perfect feedback, via interventions. For each new release (the last two just 10 days apart), they’ll be attacking the specific...

Robo minibus will need to exist to be of benefit in zones where congestion is the limiting factor. But don’t forget Musk responded with 👀 to Sawyer Merritt’s post about same platform for compact n robotaxi. If the one line makes both, switching at will, it protects Tesla from regulatory...

Musk posted 👀 on Sawyer’s post about same platform. To reveal taxi is to reveal the compact car. Focus on taxi is all about Mr Osborne.

Decide how many minutes you have. Start playing that many minutes from the end. Sasha is on fire here. Topic: FSD (Saw this video posted to this thread earlier, sorry, couldn’t locate it to link locally)

5 years is incredibly pessimistic on a two week update cadence that addresses three items per update. An item might be adding reverse, escape from any cul-de-sac, or it might be something cosmetic on the display. Let’s review in a month to assess their def of “significant”. The value jump...

Saw this yesterday from Cern Basher and I think it’s a big deal that almost nobody’s talking about. FSD 12.3 is exciting, but more exciting is the rate of improvement. This rate of dev on the end-to-end model was completely unknown to outsiders until last weekend. Now we’re being told about...

A hint to expect fast cadence of releases is in Ashok’s post. The “next few releases” will be complete “soon”, is how I read it. - Observations The time gap from 12.2 to 12.3 was typical. 12.3 was declared by Musk to be a big change (as if v13). 12.3 has some (hopefully) easy fix...

A beautifully written post from James Douma. tldr HW3 is up to the task with plenty of room for eventual optimisation. HW4 exists because silicon improvements are a gift not to be refused.

Interesting. The value, Chris argues, comes from up to date data collected by Tesla robots (cars n soon bots), required to model real world interactions for the likes of Sora to remain current. He believes the recent injection of funding to Figure AI is because the investors want data access...

I don’t think he twigged at any point that he could wake up to a full battery every day, or that it had no scheduled servicing. Calling it a “normal car” is something you might do if you had staff to go fill up and handle servicing. Or maybe I just detested those things more than normal people. 🤷‍♂️

Don’t know what this means yet. Omar sounds excited though. Edit: to Early Access Testers, apparently. Is that a big set?

If I squint at the Keeling Curve I see slight downward concavity from about 2020. Are we seeing the start of the solar/wind/storage/EV/heat-pump effect? 🤞 Of course, climbing while arcing down merely means enhancement of the greenhouse effect continues, at a slower rate. Arcing up would be worse.

Watched three videos today that contained the thought: If Sora, then when FSD? Matt Pocius, Steven Mark Ryan, Dr Know It All. Optimus too feels less science fictiony today.

Last chance to buy below 200 folks 😎 #psychology

This is confusing me. Silicon carbide is in the power electronics, used to put AC into the grid from cells which are obviously DC. Also to charge Megapacks from grid. Is it also used in cells? The exact same super hard material? If there was a shortage, it would be used for the *essential*...

The last para contains the words “high-speed”, right next to “ultra-automated”. I’m not letting go of the dream of 6 second cadence, yet. The logic: 20 seconds is too fast for humans, they would burn out, you lose the game to high staff turnover. High-speed necessitates zero-human. If you start...

And is it wise to incorporate a decarbonisation company in an oil state? What’s the state of play on direct sales in Texas? Did they relent on that?

It’s fair only because it’s Musk and he’ll use it to fund Mars, a massive boost for science and engineering on Earth and potentially a backup for humankind. Anybody else and it’s super yacht money, entirely unfair. Zero chance the judge will understand this.

He’s already earned the package that’s been rug pulled. Shareholders need to recognise that and re-award it immediately, with whatever legalese required to protect it from bad court decisions. With another vote at the same time, establish the new package.

Elon prob has a mental decision tree, for each process leading to four options: Kuka, Custom machine, Bot, Human. For next Gen, his earnings call words about building the machine that builds the machine, and being uncopyable by competitors, suggest mostly custom machine. Many assignments for the...

I’m struggling with the idea that lightweight bots with 5x the moving parts of a kuka, plus batteries, are a step forward. If the kuka *can* do it, or an even simpler machine with even fewer parts can do it, those machines *should* do it. Longer life. Less maint. Less traffic in the corridors...

Building the next Gen car? That would be as slow as using humans. I think they’ll try to keep it hands free, possibly start to finish. Like a cannery or a 4680 line. In my dreams, the line has a 6 second cadence. Why not? It gets them to 20m run rate. It’s never been done. Hasn’t stopped Musk...

Good news or bad news? Tesla is owed billions for megapacks delivered but not fully commissioned. Primarily good. It means energy growing faster than the revenue tells. But needs tighter contracts and faster connection permits? edit: I may have read something about lower prices for those who...

Weekend Off Topic Ever wondered how the Starlink stationary disk creates and listens to a narrow beam signal, and directs it to a satellite crossing 100° field of view in three minutes? Then this vid is for you. I watched this morning, riveted. This afternoon I find myself reflecting that all...

https://x.com/KevinGShang/status/1747263466392711580?s=20 Big if true. These sort of prices were forecast for 2030. Takes EV below parity price, killer blow for ICE. Makes it clearer that RE + storage is the way. Has to be a good time to be in EVs and megapacks, even if it takes a little gloss...

When the prod‘n n delivery figures drop, remember that one ship was turned back to Shanghai from Australia with bed bugs. Those vehicles will be delivered Q1. The shipping co insurance liable for costs, I’d imagine.

2024 prediction (wish): Optimus proof of concept video drops in Q1. Shows the bot working half a dozen real production jobs around the clock. May demonstrate monkey-see monkey-do training. May follow verbal instructions. Rationale is that Brett Adcock of Figure is seeing software that would...

So when a legacy auto company bankrupts releasing its labour pool, the market surges, right?

What Usain said, with one more critical difference between Robotaxi and Bot - the overnight proof of concept. Robotaxi cannot blindside an observant investor. The proof it works will always be months or seasons in duration. Even if shown to work in one city, there will be doubts, people sitting...

Two takeaways: Factory bot precedes retail bot, for three good reasons. - controlled environment - single point of contact (one satisfied buyer of a thousand bots, not a thousand pernickety customers) - economics, the bot is worth much more to the factory where it can work round the clock...

I’m thinking 6 seconds. Elon likes orders of magnitude and 10 a minute makes for easy math. Yeah I know, setting myself up for disappointment. On the other hand. Unpainted removes the biggest constraint. The line could be designed for two speeds - initial human mode and ultimate Optimus mode.

I view the range extender primarily as a stfu’per. It denies other vehicles bragging rights and denies CT buyers whining rights. It will rarely be used. It will comfort those buyers who adamantly believe they need that range, then subsequently discover the up sides of supercharger paced road...

“tesla dot com slash cybertruck” Say it a couple of times. Drop it into conversations. If the presentation was a 4, the site is a 9. It almost makes the CT look too good, like “this must cost a fortune”. No doubt at all it’s gonna sell. Cheers.

Initially there was talk of 1pm start. Now it’s 2pm. Allowing half hour for late start, half hour preamble, NY day market, an hour ahead, possibly closed before the key announcements of price/range.

Cern Basher works through his models for 5 of the “startups” within Tesla. Warning, might leave you giddy with possibilities. Stay grounded.

Hitch up something that’s not streamlined and drive fast, your range will halve. If it’s designed for low drag and you sensibly drop speed by 10%, you might only lose 20% range. The naysayers will describe every towing experience like the first one.

Do you tow? The “No” people are group A. Do you tow only locally, or on road trips? Local - group B, trippers - group C. My estimate is 1 in 4 are group C. Only group C *need* a long range battery. Many in group B think they need a long range battery. They either forget that they can wake up...

So much to get excited about. From top of my head: fsd 12 interest rates megapacks delivery numbers cyber delivery event cyber specs n prices cyber reviews short capitulation factory developments (Mexico, China Megapack, India, Nevada Semi) US Highland direct application of tax credit 4680 ramp...