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Who even has the right of way at that intersection?

I can't imagine they disable the "avoid pole" logic when using Fleet Response. Even when FR screws up the normal accident avoidance logic remains active. When FR told the car to run a red light in SF in January the car still stopped when it detected a moped crossing its path. They clipped a...

The clip at the top of the blog entry shows Waymo obeying hand gestures to turn right with no help from Fleet Response. But watch the visualization of the step van behind it -- they show it cutting the corner onto the sidewalk then rolling over on its side!

Why wouldn't EPS be the same as Q1 with 387k deliveries? Your 1b operating income already includes the "one-time" layoff charges, right?

Definitely should not count as a disengagement. Or an intervention. Request for confirmation/assistance is a completely different metric. Never execute the passengers!!! (Well, maybe the really annoying ones....) Waymo should not have hit the pole, full stop (ha). There is no excuse. That's...

The one without a safety driver, duh. Yes, I'm being sarcastic and no, I'm not a member of the "Tesla is L2, stop even talking about it" club. But people don't seem to grasp how good a system must be to remove the safety driver. Waymo did 10 separate 100 mile loops without intervention in 2009...

It's an upfront cash buy down, e.g. the bank sends Tesla 35k instead of 40k. They were giving 4-7k inventory discounts before, now they just apply the discount to the loan instead. Shouldn't have a big affect on financials. Tesla should still quietly offer cash discounts for buyers who don't...

Flufferbot? I've soured quite a bit on the Robotaxi business model. Even Uber/Lyft replacement, which seemed like a slam dunk, is going to be a long road. There are just so many weird things with pickup/dropoff, parking lots, multi-stop, etc. that cause problems long after you've figured out...

Or they just made up a number to excite the crowd based on a bunch of fantastical assumptions.

Mary would be wise to sell Cruise to Waymo along with a deal to supply Origins.

0.99% loans cost about as much as the inventory discounts they previously offered. I don't see a meaningful impact on margins. Might help sales since many buyers respond more to a bargain rate. it's a turnoff for cash buyers or those with high trade-in equity, though. Legacy offers discounts in...

Today's jump pushed TSLA market cap back above the 10th market cap milestone of 550b, but still short of the final two 600b and 650b triggers. The revenue and EBITDA milestones were kind of a joke - at least the first 8-10. Model 3 demand was well established and Y demand pretty clearly follows...

It's not clear they make all Megapacks in Lathrop. Why ship heavy LFP cells across the Pacific, put them in containers then ship them back across the Pacific to Australia or China or wherever? Plenty of shops in Asia will assemble to spec. I figure Powerwalls are steady around 2 GWh/year. Your...

BTW, the old slogan was "world's most experienced driver". But Tesla FSD blows them away on that. All FSD miles are with a safety driver, of course, but that still counts as "experience". The shift to "most trusted" is an attempt to differentiate vs. FSD, especially leading up to 8/8 when I...

14.7 GWh.

Phantom Auto also does teledriving, though it seems they've pivoted more to industrial markets. I think one of those little food delivery bot companies (maybe Starship?) uses remote drivers based in a low income country. As @Knightshade says, though, Waymo and Cruise remote monitors do not...

Yeah, 130 kph will definitely not be an OTA for current cars. It's based on next-gen hardware from NVIDIA, Mobileye, etc.

Their earnings call language was unambiguous: "We expect the energy storage deployments for 2024 to grow at least 75 percent higher from 2023." I don't see how to interpret that as a year end run rate increase. Revenue recognition doesn't exactly match deployments on these big utility...

L2 City Streets is actually becoming a thing in China. I agree it's less likely in the US. Europe is focusing on highway L3 and raising the limit from 60 kph to 130 (roughly 37 mph to 80).

Yes, 100%. Same is true for Omar's stock pump videos. Tesla also says if a catastrophic crash kills your children it's entirely your fault. And they'll fight tooth and nail in court regardless of how their "Level 5 just around the corner" system behaved. Mercedes will actually have to pay out...

Hover over the Like button and a half dozen icons pop up.

I agree. Cruise had the same issue, except worse. Anyone who thinks Tesla will magically avoid these costs is delusional. Tesla has great AI tech "for a car company", but not compared to Google. Tesla could still win by cracking the business model. Waymo has no entrepreneurs. They are almost...

You are contradicting yourself. Your earlier message included this quote: When operating under DMV testing permits Waymo reports incidents to DMV When operating under both CPUC and DMV deployment permits they don't

Source for the 50k? Waymo themselves say they ordered 62k Chrysler Pacificas and 20k Jaguar i-Paces back in 2018. They took delivery of....... fewer. it's a secret to me, and I've followed them pretty closely for over a decade. All I know is they first mentioned the Zeekr in 2021 and here in...

They guided 75% growth this year. And since Q1 was flat y/y, Q2-Q4 must roughly double. Megapacks are long lead items, so they have good visibility. I agree vehicle outlook is not so good.

As I keep saying, this vehicle was not operating under a testing permit.

But it's a DMV deployment permit, not a testing permit. Go to this DMV page and click on the links for Driverless Testing and Testing with a Safety Driver. Under the "Requirements" area of each you'll see rules for Collision Reporting. But click on the link for Autonomous Vehicle Deployment...

Yeah, it's pretty ridiculous to post such numbers and not give investors a clear explanation. They talk about fixed costs, but total D&A including non-factory stuff like offices, CAD systems, etc. was only 69m in Q1. That's at most 17% of COGS or about 35k/car and realistically maybe 15% / 30k...

They only report to DMV when operating under their testing permit. Their pay-per-ride service operates under their CPUC deployment permit.

I don't think so. In January a Waymo ran a red light due to bad remote assistant instructions. The Waymo then detected a crossing moped and stopped, but the moped fell over anyway presumably attempting an evasive maneuver. The two vehicles never came in contact and the moped left the scene, but...

Door panels are thick for side impact. They aren't structural. Take the doors off and the truck wouldn't suddenly get all flexy. I also remembered something about the sails helping rigidity -- in fact I thought that's why they got rid of the sail storage bins. But this guy says otherwise. Maybe...

It's more than macro. Tesla car sales were growing wildly, now they're shrinking. The rest of the industry is mixed, some up y/y and some down. Tesla let their lineup get stale, with the exception of CyberTruck which is niche and very hard to build. Agreed. Elon may be reacting to an awful...

Is that a guy in a construction vest on the right? I wonder if there is off-camera construction down that street? Hard to tell what's going on here without more context.

Operating income is basically EBIT. There's a small "Other (expense) income, net" line item below the operating income line that you might add back in, since it's not interest or tax.

Yeah, very informative video. Best closeups of the castings I've seen, with all their sophisticated webbing and other design features. He points out several minor "time to market" kludges which I figure Tesla will fix over time. I wish he'd gone into the weight savings more, I've read a few auto...

Great job. Charging on midday solar is the best of all worlds. I am surprised you had to do it manually until now, some EVSEs have offered "charge on excess solar" type features for years. This really only happens in regions with low solar penetration. As solar scales utilities pretty quickly...

It would explain the left turn if Waymo's programmers mistakenly defined a general rule that "taxis get to do what buses do and we're a taxi, so.....". This sudden rash of blatant traffic violations is pretty disturbing. I do wish Waymo would cut the corpspeak for a while and actually explain...

Hi, I think I saw your ad on Craigslist, too. Anyway, how long have you had it? When were the battery modules replaced?

Yeah, plus Tesla warranty replacements are not necessarily "new" batteries. 30k is quite high. I just tried to buy a 2016 (pre-refresh) 85D with 5x,xxx miles and FUSC that was listed for 20k. Some dealers have them for even less, but SC status is unclear.

Hi, are you sure the Free SC transfers to the new owner (i.e. SC01)? Tesla sold a lot of CPOs with Free SC that doesn't transfer (SC04, I think). If you don't know for sure there's a convoluted way to check the status. Thanks.

Nice setup! I first thought Little Guy Max, but the windows are wrong. NuCamp T@B 400? How do you like it? I'm looking into teardrops myself. How fast do you drive on flat highways and how many Wh per mile do you typically get?

Confident? He said "I think we will have higher sales this year than last year." When he's confident he uses much stronger language (and is still way off): "I feel very confident predicting 1 million autonomous robo-taxis for Tesla next year (i.e. 2020)" "Meaning the car will be able to find...

This math only makes sense if earnings are constant. If earnings grow it may be better to repurchase stock even at 30 p/e. Also, they can't effectively repurchase those low coupon bonds at 6% YTM. If covenants allow they could in theory buy some via tender offer at a premium to market, e.g...

May I suggest the Super Bulls Only Thread? 50%??? Tesla dropped the 50% language for a reason. This year looks slightly down followed by two years of maybe 10-20%. That's not a bear thesis (I just got called a KoolAid drinker on Reddit, fwiw). It's a neutral interpretation of Tesla's recent ER...

Yeah, high mileage drivers aren't the target market. Robos will initially target urban, where annual miles average more like 500-800/month and parking can easily hit $1/mile by itself. 2nd/3rd cars in suburbia is the other big target. In the US depreciation alone is close to 33 cents a mile...

Tony Seba's model has TAAS cost at 14 cents a mile. But he ignores ...... well, a lot. In theory TAAS has four main cost advantages over private car ownership: Amortize $30k vehicle cost over 500-1000k miles instead of 150k Electricity instead of gasoline (for society at large, not this...

The Q4 to Q1 comparison is kinda silly. China's auto market in general and BYD in particular are highly seasonal. BYD would have down Q1s even back when they were growing >100% y/y. Tesla's China revenues were down 25% sequentially in Q1 vs. BYD's 30%. Perhaps BYD's segments are even more...

His TAAS forecasts were anchored on 2020 approval, which did happen, and complete takeover by 2030 with TAAS providing 95% of all passenger miles, the US car fleet down to 44m cars, etc. Those two dates are in the "ReThinking Transportation" summary, so you don't even need to download the full...

Remote monitors (not drivers) don't "intervene". They respond to requests from the vehicle, approve the suggested path or specify a new one. Sometimes they do more harm than good. Waymo is moving from Jag to Zeekr and cheaper lidar. They indicated the Gen 5 Jag was ~100k so look for Gen 6...

I also laugh at this thread's title. That said, Tesla's Q1 sales were down 7.8% y/y in Cali, a bit less than their global 8.5% decline. They still managed to sell 11.6% of all new vehicles in the state and are the #2 overall brand. Not quite a "demise".