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I just plan to continue rolling my ITM calls but will maybe buy some OTM puts and calls right before the event. I don’t know how long volume will be low like this but at some point it’s gotta break one way or the other and that seems like a reasonable catalyst.

It’s just the same ongoing concern that the vote won’t pass and Elon will be pissed and do something investors won’t like. I started worrying when Robyn started making a big push for us to vote Yes and when they started paid advertising, too. And Elon is not helping with his 25% demand or he...

This is shaping up to feel like the Q1 we just had. Overweight retail investors almost have to defend against a catastrophic possibility which ultimately probably won’t end up happening…because what if it does? It used to be a LOT easier to hold through these FUD events when I had full...

Yeah, I’d probably start dipping back in sub-150.

I still have leftover 5/17 -c162.50/165/167.50. Also a few 5/31 -c170 and CSP 5/17 -p180 from the few contracts that I rolled and flipped instead of doubling. I'm comfortable with this because I can close the puts and double the calls if we rise, or close the calls and roll the puts flat if we...

I’m thinking flat to down, then we might get an optimistic rise into the shareholder event, followed by a sell the news after, which will be compounded by bad Q2 numbers a couple weeks later.

This is kind of the strategy that I’ve stumbled into. ITM CCs are great (especially lately with TSLA) because you not only burn off time value, you can also gain the whole cost of the contract if the SP drops down to your strike, which protects you against downside kind of like a long put.

Closed out all my weekly short calls 170-175 and some 167.50, which were from doubling the number of -c155 and -c160 contracts that got run over after the ER. Still holding some 162.50-167.50 that I should probably roll to next week. Also have short puts 172.50 and 180 that I flipped from...

They can only suffocate it if they have a monopoly on it and no one can provide competition. I don’t see a scenario where Tesla is selling the Supercharger IP and not having any sites of their own at all - do you?

If they charge too much, they won’t get any business and they’ll lose money until they adjust to market conditions. No one is obligated to charge there.

The headline makes it seem like they’re buying Tesla’s sites, which might make one infer that Tesla is getting out of the Supercharging business. But they’re actually just looking to buy the hardware and open their own sites. Who cares if they’re an oil company, how else are they going to...

I’m back with @MaxPain seeing risk to the downside. Volume has dried up again and other than that post-ER surge it doesn’t seem like much has changed in the short-term. I’m expecting Q2 to be down, per Troy, and I think the market will start to reflect that as we get closer to P&D next month...

The only way I’m able to hang onto an ITM contract without that psychological stress is by already considering the shares sold at that strike when I sell the option. If it comes back down, great, patience paid off. If it stays flat, roll week to week and bank $50-100 income per contract per...

It was on a Twitter Spaces in Jan 2023 - no sales for 1 year and probably not for the following year. I have to think that losing the comp plan and being unhappy about not having enough control might have changed that. Kind of feels like we’re in this range until something new comes out. I...

If rolling ATM, the best you can really get is maybe $2.50 increase per week of roll. Once you're ITM it gets worse than that. I just don't think rolling is the rescue strategy we make it out to be. The best you can do is get the strike up $20-30 before you find yourself a year or two out. Maybe...

Half this thread is people trying to repair underwater positions. There’s lots of strategies but you never know which one will work this time. My preference is to double the number of contracts and roll up the strike. Or you could flip some to puts to make a straddle and see which side expires...

It doesn't just have to be a top to make it worth it. They just have to be DITM, the deeper the better (assuming the SP doesn't spike after you do it and never come back down). I didn't understand the mechanics before, so I was doubling ATM contracts to move them up $5 OTM and getting run over...

My go-to technique for ITM CCs is to let them get DITM and then double the number of contracts, using the extra premium to bring the strike up. For example, today I rolled 5/3 -c155 to 2x 5/3 -c175 when we were above 195. Benefits: -Allows patience with ITM CCs. You want them to go deeper...

There’s no good answer that doesn’t involve more risk because you basically sold at 130 plus the premium unless we drop back down. When this DITM you can roll it far out to move it up a few strikes but then you’re stuck with an ugly losing position for 2 years doing nothing. And even if the...

If I had to guess, the large shorts got out AH and it’s just us retail holding the bag now.

I’m with you with -c155/160 - but it’s usually a violent rally from the bottom so I’m rolling out ASAP before they get too DITM too fast.

Nothing because they’re all gonna be 90+% down. This feels like an inflection point and I’m annoyed I let my fear make me sell calls this morning. Looking to roll out my -c155/160s a month or two to move it up a bit because I don’t think a week will be enough. I’ve been here before - rolling...

Jim had previously said he’d be busy with Passover on ER day.

If he gets his compensation plan, does Tesla not still have to pay the lawyers?

Resold 4/26 -c150/155/160 and bought 4/26 +p140 and 5/3 +p130/135. Was feeling too nervous yesterday with no downside protection.

Depends what your goals are here. I would personally take some profit, it doesn’t have to be all or none. If you want downside protection, long puts would be more profitable than calls without giving up upside on the shares. You just have to pay for them, instead of getting paid to sell covered...

I didn’t say we were done! Just that I don’t think they’ll want to pay out for the obvious long put play. With that idea, I also sold -p140 for this week against +p140 for next week. If we can end this week above 140 then I’ll have cheap downside protection for next week.

The most bullish thing to me is everyone’s bearishness. There’s been plenty of time to position for this, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flat to up week from here to kill everyone’s long puts. I’ve closed most CCs and 130p (lower leg of my bear put spread) for this week. I mostly have...

Weekly because they’re cheap for OTM puts - except for next week with ER so I have +140p/-130p spreads instead.

[/USER] The Isaacson bio made it pretty clear that Elon is most comfortable in hardcore back-to-the-wall situations. This seems to be where we are now. I think it’s now clear Tesla dropped the ball the last couple years but the good thing is Elon finally seems to be taking it seriously...

Remind me - the market doesn't bottom on what day? Was it Friday? I hope it's not Friday.

I’m starting to come around to this view. I don’t think he even has to be great - all he has to do is not make things any worse than they already are and at least that uncertainty will be off the table. This is still the same company and CEO that got us this far. I bought one 12/26 100c today...

If you don’t mind laying out more money, I like to roll down and out. It will cost you another $35/contract - but you can roll them out to 12/26 $100s. The way I see it, you pick up $50 of strike value and extend a year for only $35. Doing this roll at a low is better than doing it high...

He can’t complain about not having 25% voting if he keeps selling off his shares, right? Do we know if the dates would stay the same? Will he still have that big tax sale in 2026 or 2027?

I’m thinking a buy back could happen if we crash down near $100 but you’re right that with upcoming capital expenditures and now lower free cash flow, it’s not something Elon would be likely to do. Re: Elon being an a-hole - not that he would purposely sabotage the company, but he is a busy...

Part of my bear thesis was that it would take another year for the Delaware Supreme Court to rule on the appeal, and Elon wouldn’t get a new package until sometime after that. Meaning he would have no incentive to keep the SP high and anything good for the SP like buybacks would be off the...

Not sure because it depends where the stock goes. I’d want downside protection heading into the weekend, maybe CCs NTM and long puts with strikes $10 below the SP for 4/26. I’d close them out before the ER if they were to go green enough.

I can see this happening. Closed most short call and long puts but looking to reload on a rally to 160+ by end of week.

Is it a coincidence that Elon has been "more engaged" these last few weeks now that his pay package is back on the table? I'm wondering if he's looking to pump a bit between now and June.

It would be nice to see him in cheerleader mode again after these last few terrible calls. I could definitely see a scenario where we bounce hard coming out of it because “the bad news is out of the way” or “sell the rumor, buy the news” after everyone loads up on long puts and short calls for...

This is true, and we were complaining that Elon was distracted by his other companies. The problem is that this feels like he just now realized the issues and is scrambling to fix everything at once. I reopened +p150-155 for the next few weeks and -c155-160 for this week. Also trimmed a...

He tweeted that TSLA was going to moon an hour before this. He’s just noise.

I wonder if it’s a coincidence that we get inflow as NVDA is cooling off, since we had so much outflow when they were rocketing. The money has to be coming from somewhere.

The thing about big buyers is they can turn around and be big sellers.

I'm still not seeing how an event 4 months away is going to overcome earnings in 3 weeks. The stock has held up today but isn't surging or anything like I remember in the old days. I bought puts for Friday from 165-172.50 because I think at some point this week we'll drop to kill all the calls...

None of my 5x -p170 assigned either. Too bad, but I guess there are worse things than getting bailed out of ITM puts after the market has already closed on Friday.

Agree - it’s still 4 months away, after a bad ER or two. And people have to know by now that these events rarely trigger a rally. But still I think it puts some floor under under the stock for the next three weeks until the ER, at least.

I let 5x 4/5 -p170 assign - I wonder if they will.

Tesla buying X.ai and giving Elon enough shares to get to 25% might be a white swan? Otherwise, I don’t like the direction this is heading.

I’m thinking weak deliveries was too telegraphed to go down too much today. It was pretty expected so people have to close short calls and take profits on puts and reposition. I don’t think the other shoe has dropped yet after just 4 hours, though. The stock doesn’t go down all in one day...