Bob Lutz and his latest Tesla comments...

[James Anders]

I've watched both movies, ("Who Killed the Electric Car", "Revenge of the Electric Car") and enjoyed the rich history they portrayed. There was a lot of Lutz in each one. I was a teenager when the EV1 was in production. I'm really looking forward to the third movie and being part of it now with ownership in electric. Hope notes are being taken, and Lutz still kicking for it will be exciting where this all plays out 20 years from now.

Lutz has been a promoter of electric vehicles. Why else would have praised Musk in the past? Why else would he start up his own electric vehicle company?

 

[Whisky]

I’m an early Apple company follower, and the similarities between Apple and Tesla (as far as press) is so damn similar. When the iPhone came out, BlackBerry stock took a huge leap because the market assumed that BB would lead the consumer smart phone market since they already lead the business side of the smartphone market, and no one would ever use the iPhone for business. They’d revel that the BB didn’t have a camera, because “business think cameras are a security risk.” I held BB stock for about two a years after the iPhone was released, because it performed about as well as Apple’s stock based on how well Apple was doing.

 

[llngoc]

When Lutz mentioned that no dealership network is going to be a failing factor for Tesla, you know who's paying him...

I don't normally dismiss what Lutz has to say. As I said, I have held him in fairly high-esteem in the past. It's just that this most recent secret sauce comment is so bizarre.

Yes, we know Tesla is spending a lot of money. If Lutz simply commented on that, fine.

But we know why Musk is spending. He's building something new from the ground up. New cars, new tech, new business model. He's acknowledged that lithium batteries were a commodity item, but he also realized that a major sea change had to occur to make these batteries viable. No auto company yet has stepped up to the plate to produce these batteries at the scale as Tesla.

So, while Li batteries might not be unique to Tesla - the sheer scale and audacity of the Gigafactories does indeed give Tesla a competitive advantage. But let's be clear the gigafactories were only one aspect of Tesla's secret sauce.

It was basically Musk's testosterone.

 

[sandpiper]

When Lutz mentioned that no dealership network is going to be a failing factor for Tesla, you know who's paying him...

Yes and no. Not having a dealership network definitely makes it more costly for Tesla to scale and to support the vehicles. It means that we're not going to see stores/service centers in small-medium sized centers any time soon.

Nobody is paying me, and I question the wisdom of the decision to go this way - especially for service.

 

[Whisky]

Yes and no. Not having a dealership network definitely makes it more costly for Tesla to scale and to support the vehicles. It means that we're not going to see stores/service centers in small-medium sized centers any time soon.

Nobody is paying me, and I question the wisdom of the decision to go this way - especially for service.

The counter-argument is ideally, you won’t need service stations with electric cars that have far fewer things that can break, and where parts can be easily replaced. Most work will be done in people’s driveways. Car dealerships don’t make much money on the sale of th car, but make a ton on servicing vehicles. I mean, again, ideally speaking...we all know current Tesla’s spend plenty of time in the shop..

 

[sandpiper]

The counter-argument is ideally, you won’t need service stations with electric cars that have far fewer things that can break, and where parts can be easily replaced. Most work will be done in people’s driveways. Car dealerships don’t make much money on the sale of th car, but make a ton on servicing vehicles. I mean, again, ideally speaking...we all know current Tesla’s spend plenty of time in the shop..

That's the theory and that may be the case someday. But my S has needed a fair bit of maintenance; more than the pickup I had before it. I dearly hope that the 3 is better.

Even in an ideal world, there are things that will go wear... brakes, u-joints, A/C compressors, steering gearboxes, yada yada. People won't want to travel 200 miles for that service.

 

[traxila]

No doubt he’s got a bit of a personal grievance with Tesla. But be careful about dismissing him completely. He’s a guy who has spent s lot of time looking at financial statements. And automotive is about narrow margins, tight cost control, and smooth execution. Tesla has struggled on all of these items.

Tesla is probably as much (or more) at risk then it was in 2012 when it just about went broke. If the don’t get the 3 production up soon, the wheels might start coming off of the bus.

Please, he was just a herd guy that ended up at the helm by luck and perseverance. Doesn’t make him knowledgeable any more than anyone else in the industry. How did his financial statement gazing and tight cost controls fare when the SHTF?

Want to impress me? Go back in time and make sure GM doesn’t go bankrupt. Then I would tip my hat. Then he would be a guy with vision who guided his massive and rich company well in times of crisis. He would be a man to be listened to. Not.

He was and is a lemming like the rest of them.

 

[sandpiper]

Please, he was just a herd guy that ended up at the helm by luck and perseverance. Doesn’t make him knowledgeable any more than anyone else in the industry. How did his financial statement gazing and tight cost controls fare when the SHTF?

Want to impress me? Go back in time and make sure GM doesn’t go bankrupt. Then I would tip my hat. Then he would be a guy with vision who guided his massive and rich company well in times of crisis. He would be a man to be listened to. Not.

He was and is a lemming like the rest of them.

I'm very careful to be too critical of people until I've had a chance to walk in their shoes. He's certainly no Elon Musk, but anybody who thinks that the people at the top of these big organizations are idiots (excepting those that got there through nepotism) hasn't met many of them. Fixing GM is probably near impossible - for anybody. There are too many entrenched interests.

 

[traxila]

I'm very careful to be too critical of people until I've had a chance to walk in their shoes. He's certainly no Elon Musk, but anybody who thinks that the people at the top of these big organizations are idiots (excepting those that got there through nepotism) hasn't met many of them. Fixing GM is probably near impossible - for anybody. There are too many entrenched interests.

Did not quite say he is or was an idiot. There is nothing special about him that should give him additional insight that we should respect. Like always, he is parroting ‘conventional’ wisdom. If and when he is wrong, you have the easy excuse: ‘Who could have imagined?!’

 

[AnxietyRanger]

The counter-argument is ideally, you won’t need service stations with electric cars that have far fewer things that can break, and where parts can be easily replaced. Most work will be done in people’s driveways. Car dealerships don’t make much money on the sale of th car, but make a ton on servicing vehicles. I mean, again, ideally speaking...we all know current Tesla’s spend plenty of time in the shop..

So far that's just theory, though. Quality issues and annual service recommendations together mean that Tesla's, on average, in my experience need more service visits than ICEs (that in general have less quality issues and rarely have annual service these days).

Of course if your unit is lucky and you skip the annual service, then you may get to less visits.

Personal anecdote: My ICEs on average need service once every two years. Tesla seems to be settling to around two times a year, so four times as many visits. Maybe some of these could be done by a ranger, but then I don't really find that convenient. Someone should be at home for it? I need a suitable space to do that and what about rain/snow etc.? And apartment dwellers have an even bigger problem...

Not to mention Tesla actually has to have mobile service in the area.

 

[nime01]

Tesla is the secret sauce.

Musk went ahead and started cooking, with well known ingredients, betting that it would taste heavenly once finished.

Voilá, the Tesla sauce.

The cookbook is there for everyone to read, and Tesla can even provide easy access to one of the ingredients.

 

[TaoJones]

Am not a Putz fan. Claiming that Tesla will go out of business is, um, ludicrous given the already larger number of irons in the fire.

Reminds me of the guy the other day who was convinced that the Model 3 would never be profitable (with the obligatory deleterious effect upon the stock, which he now shorts).

Gives a whole new meaning to the term, “drag”.

 

[sandpiper]

Am not a Putz fan. Claiming that Tesla will go out of business is, um, ludicrous given the already larger number of irons in the fire.

Reminds me of the guy the other day who was convinced that the Model 3 would never be profitable (with the obligatory deleterious effect upon the stock, which he now shorts).

Gives a whole new meaning to the term, “drag”.

People like Bob serve a purpose. They help keep EM and team grounded. Without the Bobs of the world they run the risk of living in an echo chamber.

Tesla has a very real financial challenge. I hope they can navigate it. But Tesla was basically hours from bankruptcy in 2012 when they gambled it all on the S. Now they're gambling it all on the 3, and the risks are just as great. There are bloody few people in this world that could make it work.

 

[NerdUno]

I mentioned in another thread that Bloomberg reports that Tesla is burning through $8,000 a minute of borrowed money. If they don't get production ramped up soon and get those costs under control, we're going to be driving DeLorean's in two years. As for the dealer network, it sounds great not having one if you live in L.A. or Atlanta. But, when you have to take your car 300 miles to get it serviced or repaired AND spend several nights in an expensive hotel to address standard maintenance issues, most folks will come to appreciate a dealer network pretty quickly. Will it add to the price of the cars? Probably. But, if you're going to compete with the big boys, you've got to offer similar convenience especially with premium vehicles. I suspect we're not alone in planning to jump to Mercedes or BMW as soon as they have an electric vehicle with some autonomous driving capabilities. So Tesla has some other things to worry about looking down the road a couple of years as well.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I mentioned in another thread that Bloomberg reports that Tesla is burning through $8,000 a minute of borrowed money. If they don't get production ramped up soon and get those costs under control, we're going to be driving DeLorean's in two years. As for the dealer network, it sounds great not having one if you live in L.A. or Atlanta. But, when you have to take your car 300 miles to get it serviced or repaired AND spend several nights in an expensive hotel to address standard maintenance issues, most folks will come to appreciate a dealer network pretty quickly. Will it add to the price of the cars? Probably. But, if you're going to compete with the big boys, you've got to offer similar convenience especially with premium vehicles. I suspect we're not alone in planning to jump to Mercedes or BMW as soon as they have an electric vehicle with some autonomous driving capabilities. So Tesla has some other things to worry about looking down the road a couple of years as well.

I don’t like to respond to nonsense but your bait is too tempting.
1. Tesla could make a fortune selling dealorships. Demand would be extremely high. They have even been taken to court by dealorships demanding tesla sell them one. Hey could smooth out production volumes by demanding dealorships buy cars not sold. I respect them for not giving in
2. I live on east coast and have two service centers/tesla ‘dealorships” within 10 miles of my home since 2013. Two years ago, a third one opened 3 miles from my home to handle volumes of sales. Build it and they will come
3. You could get a bmw i3 now, oh forgot they stopped selling them and have recalled everyone ever sold. Faulty safety testing and danger to occupents in crash. Recall mandated. Compare to tesla safety and voluntary small recalls not mandated but done out of concern by company for consumers
4. Math is absurd. Let’s see 8000 a minute, do the math. Let me help you. 60 min an hr 24 hr a day 365 days a year ( let’s forget about leap year). That comes out to 4.2 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR. Please provide an SEC filing showing a loss of this magnitude for a year

 

[NerdUno]

I don’t like to respond to nonsense but your bait is too tempting.
1. Tesla could make a fortune selling dealorships. Demand would be extremely high. They have even been taken to court by dealorships demanding tesla sell them one. Hey could smooth out production volumes by demanding dealorships buy cars not sold. I respect them for not giving in
2. I live on east coast and have two service centers/tesla ‘dealorships” within 10 miles of my home since 2013. Two years ago, a third one opened 3 miles from my home to handle volumes of sales. Build it and they will come
3. You could get a bmw i3 now, oh forgot they stopped selling them and have recalled everyone ever sold. Faulty safety testing and danger to occupents in crash. Recall mandated. Compare to tesla safety and voluntary small recalls not mandated but done out of concern by company for consumers
4. Math is absurd. Let’s see 8000 a minute, do the math. Let me help you. 60 min an hr 24 hr a day 365 days a year ( let’s forget about leap year). That comes out to 4.2 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR. Please provide an SEC filing showing a loss of this magnitude for a year

Wasn't bait at all...

Tesla’s Burning Through Nearly Half a Million Dollars Every Hour

 

[EV-lutioin]

No secret sauce to senility, it's all made of the same neurons and synapses.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Wasn't bait at all...

Tesla’s Burning Through Nearly Half a Million Dollars Every Hour

Not even close to sec report.

 

[NerdUno]

Investment advice apparently is new territory for you.

 

[Electroman]

Trolling and talking FUD is probably familiar territory for you