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I think the major wild card is GF3. My quick estimate was ~560k, but it assumed most growth came from GF3. If Tesla significantly expands production capacity in the US (e.g., Model Y production doesn't cannibalize Model 3) I would expect it to be quite a bit higher, but I'm not sure how reasonable that would be.
7k a week Fremont 3 all year
2k a week GF3 3 all year
1k a week Fremont S/X all year
3k a week Fremont Y for a half year
Plus some Semis and GF3 Ys
Totals to 600k, going for the over since S/X could be 1.5k
570K
Current Fremont Quarterly Production 105k x 4 quarters = 420k
GF3 output per quarter: 10k,20k,30k,30k = 90k
MY production start 2nd quarter 10k,20k,30k = 60k
When I was looking at Tesla delivery numbers earlier its pretty close to 50% increase each year, but there was a bigger jump once (I forget which year, too lazy to look). So, just from that, I'd go for a 50% increase yet again -- which is what, 550k? Which is why I'd go for 550k ±40k or whatever as a margin. However, the one notable exception was a bigger jump and we have justification (GF3). Given your alignment of ranges I'd go for the next one up as the hedge.
It already is. But 2021 will be on another level, GF3 3+Y 7k/week of each, GF4 Y up and running, Freemont 3+Y, Semi, Cybertruck, FSD, solar roofs, dry electrode batteries. I am thinking 1M+ cars in 2021. Tesla will be printing money and expanding into every form of terrestrial transportation.