The only reason I don’t see the X dropping below $85k is because of the cost of warranty repairs Tesla has to deal with. I see Tesla wanting to keep the car at a lower volume and higher premium. The FWD and half shafts come to mind as an ongoing warranty expense. Elon likes to squeeze pennies but I do see the price hitting close to $85k before end of year. I’m sitting on the sidelines for it but only if he puts in Matrix headlights and an actual 360 bird’s eye view(or front bumper camera) which I believe will happen by October.
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Model X price cuts- yet again
- Thread starter A1TSL
- Start date
Propofoln
Member
I don’t, just my best guess based on the fact they are adding the Phoenix radar and hardware 4.0 with the additional camera ports. It could be sooner but October-Nov is when many car companies push to move product before end of year. Even though Tesla is not a traditional car company, they still have to make numbers and since demand is slowing for MX and MS, they will be under fire to update the models with new features. Updating software is one thing but actual hardware upgrades excites potential buyers much more. When I was at my local Tesla store, my advisor there was wrong multiple times when I said, “I’ll wait for the price decrease” “new 4.0HW” and “Matrix headlights”. All three of these things he said won’t happen anytime this year have happened, expect for the Matrix headlights which I know they are coming.
Either Elon buries the MX permanently because of poor sales or is forced to add new features. Big changes need to happen or Tesla stock price will hit $70 very soon. Let’s hope the new revised Y/3 has big improvements coming out by end of year
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Y and 3 inventory are still indicative of pretty good demand seemingly, even as pricing continues to be a moving target, so I'm not worried about the company unless they're betting the farm on converting 90% of cybertruck orders to sales or something silly like that.
I don't think X is an existential issue for Tesla. Honestly I'd let it die on the vine if I were in charge too. You've proven you can make one of the wildest unibodies ever built, cool, now stop the line and sell something else, and let the weirdos enjoy their limited-run weirdo car. Aluminum bodies are expensive, huge bespoke pieces of glass are expensive big batteries are expensive, and rube goldberg doors are expensive, and you aren't able to sell it at very much of a premium to the much cheaper to manufacture Model S, which also doesn't cost as much to service, doesn't cost as much to carry spares inventory, etc. I'd kill it after running out my current parts supplier contracts.
I don't think X is an existential issue for Tesla. Honestly I'd let it die on the vine if I were in charge too. You've proven you can make one of the wildest unibodies ever built, cool, now stop the line and sell something else, and let the weirdos enjoy their limited-run weirdo car. Aluminum bodies are expensive, huge bespoke pieces of glass are expensive big batteries are expensive, and rube goldberg doors are expensive, and you aren't able to sell it at very much of a premium to the much cheaper to manufacture Model S, which also doesn't cost as much to service, doesn't cost as much to carry spares inventory, etc. I'd kill it after running out my current parts supplier contracts.
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I am at odds with the X myself. I actually like the FWD as they are practical in a few cases…so long as they work 100% of the time and that’s certainly not always the case. The giant front window is pretty nice as well when you’re driving through the mountains/canyons/scenery, just needs a bit more tinting or a shield block like on sunroof for the bright days. I’m a fan of the MX but at current pricing, it needs better quality adjustable seats/ massages(like BMW X7), more safety features and better lighting for the interior/exterior. If all these were available, I’d be happy to pay $100k all day long.
You mean a zipper baggie with some mesh hung on some wire you can manually install when it's too sunny isn't premium enough for you? 
Tessellation
Member
Agreed.
Ever since March, there appears to be a glut of new Model X inventory (at least in the US). The $2500 price increase may have been a strategy to convince pending buyers to take delivery now, but I'm not sure whether that will have the desired effect.
They should have just announced a price increase in two days to prospective buyers if that was the thinking. However, they aren’t thinking. It’s like Elon removing the blue check from twitter without providing a good reason of why he’s charging for it. It would have been better to say, we need to charge for the blue check in order to better protect your online real identity by spending more on better security practices or whatever BS languages to appease subscribers. Instead, he’s now losing people. Elon needs to higher CEOs to better manage his companies. Tesla os losing value and in fact spent $532 million in warranty work since last April. These costs should be going down. Instead he takes out USS to save $150 million. I just have no idea why he thinks it’s ok to get rid of a working feature before implementing nothing in its place immediately or without testing it to make sure whatever is being replaced, makes the car better for it. Elon is losing focus by burning a candle at both ends.
Maybe worse for TSLA investors and resale value for MX owners. Who else is it worse for?- unsold inventory normally means price adjustment which should mean more people can afford one. Better for moving towards full electrification.
For many the X is an awsome vehicle. Space age aluminum rich chassis, air suspension, remarkable vista windshield (aftermarket Sun screen available for low cost). Largest interior space, Super comfy and supportive ventilated, heated and cooled seating, EZ access Falcon Wing doors, Easy access automated front doors, Power hatch, Large HEPA air filtration plus BioWeapon capability, Large frunk, Awsome sound system, Active noise cancellation system, Sony Atmos capable, flat fold rear area, 5,000 lb. towing with automatic sway control, aerodynamic SUV. Large landscape swiveling front main screen, secondary drivers informaion screen, Automatic adaptable suspension, 3 year free Supercharging, included 1 year data, 100 kWh battey with fast charging, Available PLAID performance, Grand Touring experience, included light/music/annimated show, Self leveling suspension when towing or carrying heavy load, 5-6-7 seating options. Highest safety ratings, Passes Moose test and reisitant to roll over.
I understand it is expensive and not for everybody, but for those that value these features it can be a compelling choice.
For profitable small business owners it qualifies for Section 179 deductions plus accelerated depreciation. The net costs for people in this catagory will be less than buying a Model Y. If they do not qualify for the IRS tax credit due to earning too much, their choice of buying a Model X can be a financial no brainer.
I understand it is expensive and not for everybody, but for those that value these features it can be a compelling choice.
For profitable small business owners it qualifies for Section 179 deductions plus accelerated depreciation. The net costs for people in this catagory will be less than buying a Model Y. If they do not qualify for the IRS tax credit due to earning too much, their choice of buying a Model X can be a financial no brainer.
Agreed. Tesla will ideally sell 2 million cars this year. S/X production is ~100,000 per year or 5% of that. Based on current inventories and interest rates, the price will have to decrease to sell that many of them.
I do wonder about overseas demand for S/X which only recently started being exported. If international demand was strong, I don’t know why US inventory would be so high. Why not just export them?
I predict that later this year once Cybertruck is shipping, initial production will be the $100+k version and the S/X price will decrease to fill in the price gap between 3/Y and CT.
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Hey ya'll - these inventory levels are still very low. Yes, the trend is not cool, but it's not an issue. Please go out and enjoy your Teslas without reading too much into the doom-charts being posted.
www.drive.com.au
"At the Atlantic Marine Terminal at the port of Baltimore, Maryland, Dodge SUVs sit idle, unsold. More than 57,000 cars are currently sitting at the port, waiting for buyers. Maryland recently paid US$5.26 million for almost 10 hectares of additional car storage space near the port, freeing space for more cargo, as these cars just aren't moving. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images"
During 2009, there were over 57,000 cars (not all Durangos of course) sitting on a massive expansion lot in Maryland because dealerships weren't taking the metal them and they weren't clearing port. And if you're wondering "why would a Dodge Durango that is manufactured in Newark, Delaware need to sit on a port expansion lot in Baltimore?"... the answer is because there were probably 25,000 Durangos sitting in Newark and they had to train/truck a bunch outta there because there was nowhere else to store them. The industry was completely FUBARRRRRR
And if you think the folks parking these things were highly motivated, think again. They often didn't accurately log a vehicle's location and unhook the negative terminal. So when someone realized the logging data was bad for how to line up the keys to where the car was parked, that was not fun for many involved. If you bought one of these lot-rotted-POS Durangos in 2010 or 2011 ... my condolences.
Global downturn hits hard - pictures
They say a picture tells a thousand words. Here are just three powerful pictorial examples of the credit crunch closing in, in the United States.
"At the Atlantic Marine Terminal at the port of Baltimore, Maryland, Dodge SUVs sit idle, unsold. More than 57,000 cars are currently sitting at the port, waiting for buyers. Maryland recently paid US$5.26 million for almost 10 hectares of additional car storage space near the port, freeing space for more cargo, as these cars just aren't moving. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images"
During 2009, there were over 57,000 cars (not all Durangos of course) sitting on a massive expansion lot in Maryland because dealerships weren't taking the metal them and they weren't clearing port. And if you're wondering "why would a Dodge Durango that is manufactured in Newark, Delaware need to sit on a port expansion lot in Baltimore?"... the answer is because there were probably 25,000 Durangos sitting in Newark and they had to train/truck a bunch outta there because there was nowhere else to store them. The industry was completely FUBARRRRRR
And if you think the folks parking these things were highly motivated, think again. They often didn't accurately log a vehicle's location and unhook the negative terminal. So when someone realized the logging data was bad for how to line up the keys to where the car was parked, that was not fun for many involved. If you bought one of these lot-rotted-POS Durangos in 2010 or 2011 ... my condolences.
"It's not as bad as when 50%+ of the auto and auto supply industry would have been in liquidation if not for government support" isn't a great example of why things are ok for Model X
But I agree, in general for Tesla overall, they seem fine. Charging, storage, and the core products (3/Y) still gangbusters with an on-time (4-5 years) mid-cycle refresh on its way for both, and a new "halo" product apparently maybe possibly for real this time launching soon in Cybertruck
Tesla isn't going to make 100,000 S/X this year unless they are planning on sitting 20,000+ inventory S/X. They made under 20,000 in Q1 and only delivered half that many.
Which is still fine, even with that "bad" production rate, they're not going to have trouble with S/X eclipsing the entire EV sales picture of some manufacturers all by themselves. But at some point, the customers just stop showing up, and 8 years into the production run on a pretty niche, weird vehicle is right on time
But I agree, in general for Tesla overall, they seem fine. Charging, storage, and the core products (3/Y) still gangbusters with an on-time (4-5 years) mid-cycle refresh on its way for both, and a new "halo" product apparently maybe possibly for real this time launching soon in Cybertruck
Tesla isn't going to make 100,000 S/X this year unless they are planning on sitting 20,000+ inventory S/X. They made under 20,000 in Q1 and only delivered half that many.
Which is still fine, even with that "bad" production rate, they're not going to have trouble with S/X eclipsing the entire EV sales picture of some manufacturers all by themselves. But at some point, the customers just stop showing up, and 8 years into the production run on a pretty niche, weird vehicle is right on time
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If you told anyone in industry that 1,000 units was "inventory piling up" as people are saying in this thread, they'd laugh at the absurdity.
1000 is 10% of their total S/X deliveries in Q1, that's inventory pileup if I've ever seen it
1000 cars may be a million-year supply if customers don't want them anymore
I'm confident we'll start to see further price cuts but I'm even more confident I'm not a buyer, when I was before, because of pricing, and it's not because I couldn't stroke the check again if I wanted to, in fact it's partially because the value proposition is no longer compelling compared to *their own products*
1000 cars may be a million-year supply if customers don't want them anymore
I'm confident we'll start to see further price cuts but I'm even more confident I'm not a buyer, when I was before, because of pricing, and it's not because I couldn't stroke the check again if I wanted to, in fact it's partially because the value proposition is no longer compelling compared to *their own products*
So they delivered 10,000 vehicles in the 90 days of 2023 and you're worried demand for these low volume vehicles is dropping to zero?
Like take a few deep breaths and go drive your car man. The sky isn't falling.
Tessellation
Member
The sky isn't falling, but it is worrisome when inventory of the Model X is almost as much as the other three models combined...and rising. It's well over $100 million in standing inventory - not chump change even by Tesla standards - and points to weak demand. Was increasing the price the best way to address this problem? I guess time will tell...
E90alex
Active Member
For a company that operates primarily on a made to order basis, there should be near zero inventory piling up. Excess inventory is indicative of cancelled deliveries after the car had already been made and/or they have low demand but they kept the production line going with popular configs hoping a buyer wants a fast delivery option.
For the latter, that’s probably not a great strategy for S/X as buyers of $100k+ cars tend to be more discerning and would rather wait for a “custom” vehicle made for them instead of compromising on desired options and buying something off the lot that’s been sitting or possibly rejected previously. See: BMW Individual, Audi Exclusive, MB Designo.
Of course, the numbers have also not been helped by the HW4 rumors/rollout over the last couple months.
IMO greed is why the MX Plaid is only offered as a 6 seater. There are bound to be buyers for 5 seat Plaid, but based on the MX up to 2021 that would be over $6k cheaper. I can come up with no other reason they stopped offering it on the Plaid but still do on LR.
