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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Six more Russian war crimes.

Russians executed 6 soldiers captured on Zenith position south of Avdiivka. That's one of them calling just before russians come in. Later russians published video with dead bodies. 3 executed fighters have been recognized by family members already.


twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1759172210281898296?s=20
 
I started listening to the Tucker Interview, but quickly skipped the history and looked for the part where Tucker asked Putin about the WSJ reporter. I thought it was a fair attempt to ask a hard question, while still insuring that he and his crew were likely to get out of Russia alive and that the interview would be even be allowed to be aired.

But I was left still curious about Putin's history and I found an English translation of the transcript Tucker Carlson Interviews Vladimir Putin Transcript | Rev Blog

And then asked ChatGPT 4: the following: "Summarize this statement of history and point out any errors or likely false or uninformed statements: " and fed it the 20 minute history part of the transcript.

The answer was interesting and I thought worth sharing:

This statement contains a mixture of historical facts, interpretations, and simplifications that require clarification or correction:

1. **Origins of the Russian State**: The statement accurately notes the traditional date of 862 for the founding of the Russian state with the invitation to Rurik, a Varangian prince, to rule in Novgorod. This is a foundational myth of Russian statehood but oversimplifies the diverse and complex processes of state formation involving Slavic, Finnic, and Norse peoples.

2. **Kievan Rus' as a Precursor**: The narrative correctly identifies Kievan Rus' as a formative state for Russian and Ukrainian history but conflates the later development of the Russian centralized state with the early medieval federation of tribes. The transition from Kievan Rus' to the Grand Duchy of Moscow involved many intermediary stages and influences from Mongol rule.

3. **988 and the Baptism of Rus'**: The year 988 and the baptism of Rus' under Prince Vladimir are correctly identified as significant. However, the implication that a centralized Russian state immediately began to strengthen afterward is misleading. The Christianization of Rus' was indeed pivotal for cultural and religious unity, but the centralized state evolved much later.

4. **Fragmentation and Mongol Invasion**: The statement about fragmentation and the Mongol invasion is generally correct but lacks context regarding the complexity of internal and external factors leading to the fragmentation of Kievan Rus'. The Mongol (Tatar) Yoke indeed had a profound impact on the Rus' territories, leading to different developmental paths for the principalities.

5. **Misrepresentation of Ukrainian Identity**: The narrative oversimplifies and misrepresents the emergence of Ukrainian identity, suggesting it was a product of Polish colonization efforts. While Polish-Lithuanian rule over parts of Ukraine influenced the development of a distinct Ukrainian identity, this process was more complex and rooted in a longer history of regional differences within the Rus' lands.

6. **13th Century Polish "Oppression"**: The reference to Polish oppression in the 13th century is anachronistic. The significant Polish influence in Ukraine began later, particularly during the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth era. The real period of intensified Polish-Lithuanian control over Ukrainian territories was from the 14th century onwards, not the 13th.

7. **1654 and the Pereyaslav Agreement**: The statement correctly identifies 1654 and the Pereyaslav Agreement as a turning point when parts of Ukraine sought Moscow's protection from Polish rule. However, it simplifies the complex dynamics and the varied motivations of the Ukrainian Cossacks and population.

8. **Creation of "Soviet Ukraine"**: The narrative's portrayal of Ukraine as an "artificial state" created by Lenin and later shaped by Stalin's policies oversimplifies the historical development of Ukrainian national consciousness and statehood. While Soviet policies did shape modern Ukraine's borders, Ukrainian identity and statehood desires have deeper historical roots that were not merely the product of Soviet manipulation.

9. **Misrepresentation of Historical Events and Entities**: The statement contains inaccuracies in the depiction of historical events and the roles of various entities, particularly regarding Poland's interactions with Nazi Germany and the implications of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. The portrayal of Ukraine's history often reflects a Russian nationalist perspective that minimizes the distinctiveness and agency of Ukrainian history and identity.

In summary, while the statement draws on historical events, it presents a narrative that simplifies complex historical processes, often reflecting a perspective that aims to minimize Ukrainian distinctiveness and justify Russian historical claims. It's essential to approach such narratives critically and consider the broader historical scholarship on these topics.
 
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Maybe in a couple of weeks. The house is on a break.

Europe stepping up to plug the gap in artillery munitions left by a paralized USA: (6 hrs ago)

Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Denmark has decided to send all its artillery to Ukraine — Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark." /X


Demark says 'Ukraine needs our guns more than we do'. Good on ya.

This, after just yesterday the Czech Republic "located" 800,000 rounds of artillery ammunition (500K 155mm NATO + 300K 122mm W.P.)

Happy Put in Day, Putie...
 
When you see an article in Foreign Affairs or in The Atlantic that does otherwise, bring it to my attention and I will rescind this rule.

So only former Presidents (and presumptive nominees) are allowed to cast derision at their enemies? Putin is my enemy. I will call him Putie as I please, thank-you.

As far as Sach/z go, I don't know him, and I consider him a non-player character (NPC). Thus, he is below my contempt.

Perhaps you went to a different school, but in Realpolitik it is fair game to cast contemptuous ridicule or mockery on your oponent. It's usually a warning before military action, but we've crossed the rubicon now, haven't we?
 
In summary, while the statement draws on historical events, it presents a narrative that simplifies complex historical processes
Speaking of Tucker Carlson and simplifying complex processes: from yesterdays Toronto Star:

IMG_3787.jpeg


Magnified:

IMG_3788.jpeg


Much nicer…than ANY city in the USA!?
 
I've been to Moscow multiple times, as well as some of the largest Russian cities outside Moscow/St. Petersburg -- there is a huge difference. Moscow is/was pretty darn nice (at least ~10 years ago). I remember good restaurants, good hotels, educated people, a surprisingly good vibe. It was very promising back then. Kremlin likely invested a lot in making Moscow nice. The rest of Russia was more as expected-- low quality construction, poor/no urban design, much more third world.

They probably still try to keep Moscow as nice as possible.

The biggest problem was traffic -- it was built up even to this day never contemplating that normal people would have cars rather than take the subway. So they have great subway and insufficient parking.
 
Moscow is/was pretty darn nice (at least ~10 years ago). I remember good restaurants, good hotels, educated people, a surprisingly good vibe.

Nothing a few hundred drone strike on electrical sub-stations couldn't fix. Moscovites are too insulated from the horrors experienced in Ukrainian cities, indeed throughout the rest of the Russian federation. This also needs to change, it's the only way forward.
 
So only former Presidents (and presumptive nominees) are allowed to cast derision at their enemies? Putin is my enemy. I will call him Putie as I please, thank-you.

As far as Sach/z go, I don't know him, and I consider him a non-player character (NPC). Thus, he is below my contempt.

Perhaps you went to a different school, but in Realpolitik it is fair game to cast contemptuous ridicule or mockery on your oponent. It's usually a warning before military action, but we've crossed the rubicon now, haven't we?
A delete is a delete is a delete. Your call.
 

I think there may be two different people being referenced in the last few posts...
David Sacks isn't a professor at Columbia AFAIK.

There is also a David Sachs who is a professor of surgery at Columbia.
David H Sachs, MD

The David Sacks who is prominent on Twitter/X is a tech bro originally from South Africa who has been in the Silicon Valley tech community for a few decades. He is one of the "Paypal Mafia" who was involved in Paypal back in the early days and have been close friends with Peter Thiel since they were students at Stanford.

Peter Thiel has been very outspoken on political issues, taking somewhat controversial stands, for many years.
Peter Thiel - Wikipedia

Thiel wrote an essay in 2009 in which he declared that democracy and freedom were incompatible. How any other political system could yield much in the way of freedoms is beyond me.

Thiel is something of a Svengali figure. He has influenced a number of prominent figures on the American scene. Blake Masters who ran for Senate in Arizona in 2022 worked for him, so did JD Vance who won a Senate seat in Ohio the same year. David O Sacks has been in Thiel's orbit for 30 years and Elon Musk has also fallen into his orbit.

Musk's move towards radical politics has coincided with Thiel's return to Elon's life in the last three to four years. Elon Musk has had other things that triggered his anger which we talked about above, but Thiel has been the voice fueling his anger and pushing him into radical directions.

There is evidence that Thiel was approached by the Kremlin
Billionaire FBI informant Peter Thiel dished about two Kremlin invites to private Putin meetings

And Obama wasn’t a professor at Harvard either

He was a professor at the University of Chicago School of Law though.

Europe stepping up to plug the gap in artillery munitions left by a paralized USA: (6 hrs ago)

Anton Gerashchenko on X: "Denmark has decided to send all its artillery to Ukraine — Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark." /X


Demark says 'Ukraine needs our guns more than we do'. Good on ya.

This, after just yesterday the Czech Republic "located" 800,000 rounds of artillery ammunition (500K 155mm NATO + 300K 122mm W.P.)

While it's nice Denmark is doing this, it's not a lot. According to Wikipedia they already gave Ukraine all their Caesar SP artillery (19 of them) in early 2023 and all they have left is an unknown number of US made 81mm mortars and 20 Israeli made 120mm mortars and 21 mortar carriers. It's unclear from the Wikipedia page if the mortars on the mortar carriers are in addition to the 20 listed elsewhere or not.

List of equipment of the Royal Danish Army - Wikipedia

The ammunition from the Czech Republic is a much more substantial gift.


With the fold out wings it looks like it may launch from a HIMARS type system.
 
Interesting. Looks not too dissimilar from a German V1. Must be some sort of Scram-jet propulsion.

Looks more like a conventional turbofan, with 2 lateral air intakes forward of the rear engine bay. These drones operate in the low- to mid-subsonic regime (below Mach 0.75); Scramjets typically need Mach 6+ to create enough ram air compression to sustain combustion.

The 'new hottest' with this french drone is going to be all about what's in that optical seeker head (and the AI cpu which powers the guidance computuer). It's time folks. True fire'n'forget, shoot'n'scoot, all-u-can-eat.
 
With growing Russian imperialism, the old, recently added, and soon to be added Nordic NATO members should be able to handle this threat in their backyard:


There is a permanent population, but it's tiny and most of the population is transitory people associated with the mining interests. According to Wikipedia 423 of the permanent population of 2667 are Russian or Ukrainian. I assume the Ukrainians among the expat population are not all that pro-Russia. There is a school there just for the Russians, but the Russians have not been funding it. If the Russian kids are speaking Norwegian it's because that's the only education they can get.

Do the Russian's actually want to start a war with all of NATO over a population of less than 423 Russians who are probably living a better life than most Russians back home? The Russian navy can't maintain a presence in a small body of water against an opponent with no navy. Do they really think they could even stand against the Royal Navy? It is quite degraded from what it once was, but is a good professional force. Throw in a minor force from the USN and any expeditionary force the Russians try to send there will be stranded.

I think it's likely just more Russian sabre rattling to try and keep NATO from supplying Ukraine.