Seems like FSD is a complete crock

[Saghost]

Karpathy started in Tesla in Jun '17. So, in reality we can say Tesla's FSD program is 2 years old. They have made a lot of progress compared to so many others in the industry.

The other important point to keep in mind is right now is the point they've been working towards ever since they really got their hands around the problem - once they grasped the complexity, they knew they'd need dedicated Neural Net hardware, which they just started getting into cars in April.

So I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll soon be seeing things that are far beyond what they've shown us to date, now that they finally have the hardware they expected to need in place to run the software on.

 

[diplomat33]

Karpathy started in Tesla in Jun '17. So, in reality we can say Tesla's FSD program is 2 years old. They have made a lot of progress compared to so many others in the industry.

Exactly, Tesla's FSD program is really only 2 years old.

 

[EVNow]

So I'm cautiously optimistic that we'll soon be seeing things that are far beyond what they've shown us to date, now that they finally have the hardware they expected to need in place to run the software on.

I just want FSD to work the way they showed during autonomy day. It will be a little more error prone since NN has probably not seen all the roads we drive on.

I do think when FC comes out - we'll again see glass half empty people saying it is just BS and people like us actually using City NOA and liking it.

 

[iqless]

Exactly, Tesla's FSD program is really only 2 years old.

Then it's even more terrible, are you guys sure you are defending this? Because Tesla has been offering FSD as a purchasable option since October 2016. Are we supposed to give Tesla a break on their speed and promises because they only started developing a program for something like 10 months after they actually started charging money for it? What? I don't understand you guys, seriously. If anything their FSD program being "only" 2 years old is a sign of bad business because they've been charging for it for 3 years.

 

[diplomat33]

Then it's even more terrible, are you guys sure you are defending this? Because Tesla has been offering FSD as a purchasable option since October 2016. Are we supposed to give Tesla a break on their speed and promises because they only started developing a program for something like 10 months after they actually started charging money for it? What? I don't understand you guys, seriously. If anything their FSD program being "only" 2 years old is a sign of bad business because they've been charging for it for 3 years.

What part of "starting from scratch" don't you understand? Tesla started selling FSD when they had a demo and thought they could do it. but their first approach did not work so they had to start over again. The "2 years" is only counting when they started over with the approach that is working. It is ignoring the earlier attempt at FSD that did not work.

 

[iqless]

What part of "starting from scratch" don't you understand? Tesla started selling FSD when they had a demo and thought they could do it. but their first approach did not work so they had to start over again. The "2 years" is only counting when they started over with the approach that is working. It is ignoring the earlier attempt at FSD that did not work.

And it's completely fine that Tesla charged money for something they not only didn't have but didn't even have a plausible idea on how to actually develop?

Like, they were "oh yeah I'm pretty sure we can do this, let's charge them $3,000" and turns out they didn't know how to begin. Is the fact they didn't even know how to begin the defense now?

I am asking this question very seriously: Considering there has been nothing from the FSD side since they have been charging money for it on October 2016, and considering aallll the leases and stuff that have come and gone, are you completely sure you think Tesla has done absolutely nothing wrong and this is just normal business stuff?

 

[diplomat33]

And it's completely fine that Tesla charged money for something they not only didn't have but didn't even have a plausible idea on how to actually develop?

Like, they were "oh yeah I'm pretty sure we can do this, let's charge them $3,000" and turns out they didn't know how to begin. Is the fact they didn't even know how to begin the defense now?

I am asking this question very seriously: Considering there has been nothing from the FSD side since they have been charging money for it on October 2016, and considering aallll the leases and stuff that have come and gone, are you completely sure you think Tesla has done absolutely nothing wrong and this is just normal business stuff?

Look, I have said before that if I had been in charge, I would not have charged money for FSD. I would have waited until FSD was a deliverable product before selling it. No, I don't think that Tesla should have sold FSD in 2016. I am merely trying to lay out the facts of what happened.

 

[EVNow]

And it's completely fine that Tesla charged money for something they not only didn't have but didn't even have a plausible idea on how to actually develop?

Dude, welcome to cutting edge.

A lot of us paid for fast charging in 2011 (Nissan Leaf SL) - that most of us could never use, because the network never materialized - even though the federal government was paying $500M !

BTW, Tesla never said they already have FSD. They always said they have to validate it, regulators have to allow it etc.

 

[iqless]

Dude, welcome to cutting edge.

A lot of us paid for fast charging in 2011 (Nissan Leaf SL) - that most of us could never use, because the network never materialized - even though the federal government was paying $500M !

BTW, Tesla never said they already have FSD. They always said they have to validate it, regulators have to allow it etc.

people paid for FSD in October 2016.

they still have nothing. literally. nothing.

cutting edge does not have to be this

 

[Octo]

BTW, Tesla never said they already have FSD. They always said they have to validate it, regulators have to allow it etc.

Haha. With that logic, Mr. Musk could pre-sell FTL travel for real money.

 

[EVNow]

people paid for FSD in October 2016.

they still have nothing. literally. nothing.

cutting edge does not have to be this

I never got to use fast charging in Nissan Leaf either, before the lease was up.

That doesn't mean I go on and on about it in every thread

 

[EVNow]

Haha. With that logic, Mr. Musk could pre-sell FTL travel for real money.

Buyer beware.

 

[iqless]

I never got to use fast charging in Nissan Leaf either, before the lease was up.

That doesn't mean I go on and on about it in every thread

Possibly because this is not a Nissan Leaf forum

 

[Daniel in SD]

Haha. With that logic, Mr. Musk could pre-sell FTL travel for real money.

This would be a better option:

How many people do you think Musk could convince to preorder?
The science is sound, just need regulatory approval.

 

[jebinc]

This would be a better option:
View attachment 435994
How many people do you think Musk could convince to preorder?
The science is sound, just need regulatory approval.

“Feature complete by year end”

 

[Watts_Up]

“Feature complete by year end”

FSD needs also to provide FSC (Full Self Charging) capability, otherwise you still need to carry a human being to plug and unplug the car.

 

[TaoJones]

“3 months probably, 6 months definitely.”

*clears throat*

And there is NO excuse for the faked late 2016 video. None. And that class action paid out, too.

In 2014 when AP1 launched, Elon said that Teslas would handle [recognize and react to] stop signs. Despite the infamous 2016 video, here we are 5 years later and... bupkis. AP2 tries to kill me every day several different ways, and still doesn’t lanekeep as well as AP1.

How are those MCU1 —> MCU2 retrofits going? C’mon, Tesla - suck it up, replace the cameras that will also need to be replaced and start offering this already.

The best part is that most of us will wait over 6 months from now for our AP3 board retrofits. Maybe the cameras can wait until then.

 

[NHK X]

people paid for FSD in October 2016.

they still have nothing. literally. nothing.

cutting edge does not have to be this

Don’t purchase then. That simple. It comes down to personal choice.

 

[iqless]

Don’t purchase then. That simple. It comes down to personal choice.

I'm sorry, that's crap. You can't sell stuff to people with a promise that it (or at least something) will come from it in the near future and 3 years like be all like "lol don't buy it then".

It's nobody's "personal choice" to be misled. Tesla has done a great wrong here that is completely indefensible. It doesn't doom them as a company, and it doesn't make me feel like I will never do business with Tesla again - it's not quite at that level, it's just one bad thing they've done. But, it is something with no excuses.

I remind you. They've sold FSD to people on October 2016. Those people still have absolutely NO features that their FSD money paid for.

 

[iqless]

One more thing to get my point across. How many people from 2016 would have paid that money for FSD if they knew it would bring them literally nothing in the next at least 3 years?

How many people from 2017 would have paid it if they knew by August 2019 they would still have nothing? How many people from 2018? Mind you - EAP, which all those people also paid for, gets them all currently available Tesla self driving technology.

Everybody who paid for it did it with explicit Elon Musk statements that led them to believe it was imminent that their FSD investment would at least get them something. "3 months maybe 6 months definitely" was said by Elon Musk, at the very beginning of 2017 (January), about when FSD would get people something separate from EAP. It's why people thought FSD was worth any money at all. And yet it still has not happened.

So, to me very obviously, those people have been swindled. Sure, they knew that at the point of their purchasing FSD had nothing on top of EAP. But it was promisedly imminent. If Elon had told the truth: "I have absolutely zero idea when FSD will divert from EAP, but probably not within the next 12 months" then pretty much nobody would have paid for it.

This is not like somebody saying "hey this is a $70k Tesla and it'll have this and this feature soon" because then the $70k is not just for that feature but it's for the car. You didn't get the promised feature but you did get the rest of the car. This is different, because this was a very specific line item purchase with a very specific feature set. And nothing happened.

I'm aware I'm going on and on about this and I'm sorry, but the contorted mental gymnastics some of you guys are having to resort to in order to defend Tesla in this instance is really getting to me.