Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

An idea for Tesla: in case Q4 is on track to have large profit, try to delay some profit to Q1'20 and Q2'20. As long as it's legal.
One or two quarters of big profit won't scare away the stupid shorts. In stead, they will pile on just like they did last year.
Consistent profit, even if it's small, will force them out.

Yes, Tesla already has a half-Billion dollar war chest built up as deferred revenue for FSD. Presuming they reach the 'feature complete' milestone in 2020Q1, they can unlock an arbitary portion of those funds to smooth out GAAP profits vs 2019Q3/4.

As a bonus, a profitable Q1 2020 likely sees TSLA on the S&P 500 by Summer 2020, with all the Index Funds buying in as a result. Indeed, the smarter ones will see the writing on the wall now, and be doing just that already. Gotta be tuff on dem shortzes.

Cheers!

 

[TradingInvest]

I'd like to see him start a world-class honest news website unlike any other. Shouldn't be that hard to do considering there are many world class journalists out of work who'd probably love the opportunity.

Two separate websites. One for honest news. One for social media. The social media website needs to find a way to promote serious and respectful discussions, washout the trolls and block their IP address. I can't believe why would Twitter worth 23B, even though I know how they make profit.

 

[humbaba]

I'd like to see him start a world-class honest news website unlike any other. Shouldn't be that hard to do considering there are many world class journalists out of work who'd probably love the opportunity.

The difficulty isn't the money, it is appearances and reputation. What do you think would be the reaction to someone who is frequently targeted by the media for ad hominem attacks setting up a news site? It would be reported as a vanity "news" site, a desperate attempt push his fraudulent narrative.

Reporters definitely need work, but it is hard to attract quality journalists with just money. The quality journalists want to work somewhere with a good reputation and inertia is hard to overcome -- that's why Fox has held onto some actual journalists.

He could certainly do it, but it would be a long, slow business of gradually building out a reputation while being slandered and reviled to slow it down as much as possible. Kinda like Tesla. I'm not sure he needs to take on more negativity.

The quicker path is to buy an outlet. Doing so would certainly be a reputational hit for the outlet, but using money to hire a manager with a strong reputation and giving the manager transparently free rein would work.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, Tesla already has a half-Billion dollar war chest built up as deferred revenue for FSD. Presuming they reach the 'feature complete' milestone in 2020Q1, they can unlock an arbitary portion of those funds to smooth out GAAP profits vs 2019Q3/4.

The amount of FSD revenue recognized at certain milestones allows a certain amount of discretion but it cannot be "arbitrary". Tesla has to be able to reasonably justify the amount recognized.

As a bonus, a profitable Q1 2020 likely sees TSLA on the S&P 500 by Summer 2020, with all the Index Funds buying in as a result. Indeed, the smarter ones will see the writing on the wall now, and be doing just that already.

Index funds don't buy 2 quarters in advance of being admitted to the index - they are trying to replicate index performance as much as possible and the way that is accomplished is by buying upon admission, not months beforehand.

 

[woodisgood]

Let's let Elon work on saving the planet, and a different genius can work on saving journalism and social media.

 

[Christine69420]

Top 20 cars sold in Norway in October.

Antall = count
Denne mnd = this month ie October
Hittil = YTD

Source: Registreringsstatistikken – Opplysningsrådet for veitrafikken

 

[M3Rider]

Steve Job’s Ghost update:

Steve Jobs is Dead

Elon Musk on Twitter

Stock should surge. Elon moving to Reddit haha Twitter is bad.

Yeah, these seem connected...The only reason I'm on Twitter is Elon, so no problem moving to Reddit if that's his move.

 

[VValleyEV]

The powerwall and solar combo is a strong one. I got sent a link to this article in a British newspaper (with an US Edition) about a mansion for sale near San Fransisco:

The mansion that will never run out of power: Sprawling California home with two Tesla Powerwalls, electric car chargers and views of San Francisco Bay goes on the market for $9MILLION - and it won't ever be hit by PG&E outages

According to Tesla, Powerwalls can detect an outage, disconnect the home from the grid and automatically restore power to a residence without interruption, working for seven days or more at a time, depending on the size of the home.

Mansion that will never run out of power with two Tesla Powerwalls goes on the market for $9 million | Daily Mail Online

Hmm, just for grins, actually sounds underpowered. 20 panels problably means a 5kw inverter.

WIth my 8kw inverter and 34 panels I just cover the requirements for 3000 sqft home and 2 Teslas. I don’t have battery storage but figured I would need at least 2 powerwalls, maybe 3 to really “never run out of power”. Sure my A/C requirements are higher in AZ but likely also my sunshine. And that beautiful house is enormous with a ton of lighting.

 

[winfield100]

I believe I remember Elon stating a few years ago that with a solar farm 100 miles square at the 4 corners area, he could power the entire United States. I wonder what it would take for Australia?

lets put actual numbers to this as a simple example
100 sq miles = ~260,000,000sq meters
my 11,655kw array makes ~17 megawatt hours/year, (17,000kwh) 26.6degrees N non tracking
my array covers 59.9sq meters
100 sq miles = ~260,000,000 sq meters =~4,340,000 PV arrays similar to mine
round up to 4,500,000
multiply by 17 megawatt hrs produced per year
4,500,000 * 17 = ~76,500,000 megawatt hours, or 76 terawatt hours per 100 sq miles array distributed in ~11,500kw arrays on 4.5 million roofs.
Where the heck are my errors? I could swear US used ~4,500 terawatt hours last year
somewhere i have bad assumptions, so help please

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Hmm, just for grins, actually sounds underpowered. 20 panels problably means a 5kw inverter.

WIth my 8kw inverter and 34 panels I just cover the requirements for 3000 sqft home and 2 Teslas. I don’t have battery storage but figured I would need at least 2 powerwalls, maybe 3 to really “never run out of power”. Sure my A/C requirements are higher in AZ but likely also my sunshine. And that beautiful house is enormous with a ton of lighting.

Ya, I was looking at 36 panels and 3 Powerwalls for my house(unfortunately, a large portion of my roof ended up not really woking for panels as it's too shaded by a neighbor's tree, so I'm having to make do with 12/1). 2 does seem underpowered for multiple EV's. That's only enough storage for ~90-110 rated miles(it being SF, the hills will reduce that), depending on the Tesla in question. Less for any other EV's.

On the bright side, all my account issues were finally solved and I now have installation scheduled for Nov 21.

 

[KarenRei]

When it comes to practicalities, the only thing Elon could really do would be to establish a legal defense fund for his supporters on social media to protect them from TSLAQ lawsuits, threats, and nuisance legal claims.

DMCA - which was used to get @tesla_truth permanently banned - has teeth. Twitter has to obey DMCA notices - even if they're part of an organized campaign driven by financial or ideological motive (according to Google, *most* DMCA notices that they get *are* motivated by financial and political reasons). If they don't, the liability transfers to them. The way to respond is DMCA counter-notices (where fair use would be alleged). The original claimant then has to file suit within 14 days, or their DMCA claim is dropped.

Pretty much any active Twitter account could potentially get banned due to DCMA claims if a motivated party wanted to; even most memes are violations of copyright law. The only defense is a legal one.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The amount of FSD revenue recognized at certain milestones allows a certain amount of discretion but it cannot be "arbitrary". Tesla has to be able to reasonably justify the amount recognized.

You want to quibble about what 'arbitary' means? I already said "Presuming they reach the 'feature complete' milestone in 2020Q1". After that's in the bag, they can choose when and how much revenue to recognize. Nobody can complain about Tesla unlocking too little revenue (unless that's your complaint). The smart move is to claim enough to smooth out any Q1 lull, and keep the rest in their back pocket.

Index funds don't buy 2 quarters in advance of being admitted to the index - they are trying to replicate index performance as much as possible and the way that is accomplished is by buying upon admission, not months beforehand.

Yeah, we don't need no STINKING BADGES. It'll come when its time.

Cheers!

 

[elasalle]

Steve Job’s Ghost update:

https://wholemars.org/2019/10/31/steve-jobs-is-dead/

Doesn't Dead Steve Job's have a Dead Mom ???

 

[humbaba]

When it comes to practicalities, the only thing Elon could really do would be to establish a legal defense fund for his supporters on social media to protect them from TSLAQ lawsuits, threats, and nuisance legal claims.

DMCA - which was used to get @tesla_truth permanently banned - has teeth. Twitter has to obey DMCA notices - even if they're part of an organized campaign driven by financial or ideological motive (according to Google, *most* DMCA notices that they get *are* motivated by financial and political reasons). If they don't, the liability transfers to them. The way to respond is DMCA counter-notices (where fair use would be alleged). The original claimant then has to file suit within 14 days, or their DMCA claim is dropped.

To be clear: the DMCA did not get @tesla_truth banned. That is the excuse that is being used. This goes OT, but is something I have dealt with (including abuse of it). The short version is that the DMCA does not require removal of the material, much less suspension, much less a ban (though removal is a very common response). Those are all Twitter's policy for addressing their responsibilities under the DMCA as a service provider. Bringing up counter-notices is a non sequitur in the present case (and they are largely irrelevant in the general case, but that is a longer discussion).

There is no situation wherein the DMCA requires suspending or banning a user. Period.

The biggest problem with the DMCA in terms of abuse is that you can cause a take down of material in which you do not have a copyright interest, nor do you need to claim one. And, yes, that is a problem I have seen. But it is irrelevant to the vast majority of DMCA filings and to the present case.

The problem with Twitter is their policy, not DMCA requirements.

[edit: how do I know? years of experience with processing DMCA notices and crafting DMCA policy and debating DMCA requirements with other people in similar positions]

 

[GregRF]

lets put actual numbers to this as a simple example
100 sq miles = ~260,000,000sq meters
my 11,655kw array makes ~17 megawatt hours/year, (17,000kwh) 26.6degrees N non tracking
my array covers 59.9sq meters
100 sq miles = ~260,000,000 sq meters =~4,340,000 PV arrays similar to mine
round up to 4,500,000
multiply by 17 megawatt hrs produced per year
4,500,000 * 17 = ~76,500,000 megawatt hours, or 76 terawatt hours per 100 sq miles array distributed in ~11,500kw arrays on 4.5 million roofs.
Where the heck are my errors? I could swear US used ~4,500 terawatt hours last year
somewhere i have bad assumptions, so help please

Not 100 square miles, a square that is 100x100 miles, so 10,000 miles^2

 

[VValleyEV]

There’s a ton (probably 80-90%) of S/X owners that have unlimited supercharging with their current vehicle. Many of them would like to trade up without losing it so I think this perk needs to stay.

Maybe, but I think it is more important to offer a “trade-up” of the FSD option. I purchased FSD with my 2018 S when it was $3k and really. had no content. Now to trade up to a “Raven” I would be paying $7k for FSD plus my original $3k. This keeps getting move of a disincentive in the future, and already outstrips the “free supercharging”, estimated prepaid value about $2k.

Would be great to give credit for full FSD when trading in, but even a differential credit for previous FSD payment would be nice.

 

[Driver Dave]

Steve Job’s Ghost update:

Steve Jobs is Dead

Maybe they should leave this guy alone and go after the bitcoin scammers that post as "Elon_Musk_ " with same photo Elon uses after ever real Elon post.

Been going on for months and months and yet Twitter does nothing...

 

[DrMazeppa]

Are we going back below 300 next week before we climb up again?
The day after earnings we touched briefly 290 with a clear push (kind of testing how strong was the long-term buying pressure). Since then, I've got the feeling that was the signal for the new reverse, that is, MMs are gonna go back to that level before leaving TSLA surge to 350+ and beyond.

If that happens, I will be strongly tempted to go plaid and use that thing we should not use, leverage...

 

[Skryll]

Yeah, these seem connected...The only reason I'm on Twitter is Elon, so no problem moving to Reddit if that's his move.

Reddit is even more slanted, I got posts removed because they pointed out some unpopular truths in response to a political post, while the political post remained.

 

[Tslynk67]

Poof!