Airlines have never been more sanitary .. and planes empty ... flew this weekend ... not a single hackerAm I getting it right that you are still flying?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
That's too bad. One of my investment rules is to never invest money (in anything) that I know I'll need to cash out in the next few years. Two years at a minimum.
I think they just can't get their heads past the weight of the battery, and never realized that proper packaging can turn that weight into a feature. Also every one of them bought the hydrogen myth, put a lot of money into it, and now they don't want to look foolish by changing tack. The Clarity is what you get when you make something because you have to rather than because you want to.
I think they were referring to how much money in 2020 the billionaires were up or down. Due to TSLA's parabolic upturn, even with the market drop Elon is still ahead. Sure some here can attest to that in their own portfolio.
Prob cleanest places around, lol. Any good flight deals out there, maybe even at the gates? (I'm immune to virus by nature... no fear.) I'd consider a getawayAirlines have never been more sanitary .. and planes empty ... flew this weekend ... not a single hacker
Meanwhile, products even related to a demand thing could see extreme inflation. Ya, what's tomorrow gonna bring? Mac'n Cheese $10 a box?
Well, some Teslas finally made it to Norway with 64 being delivered today: https://teslastats.no
Mix is still predominantly LR (80%), followed by P (12%), SR+ (8%) - these %ages a rough guess on a casual glance without actually counting, YMMV.
Mix is still predominantly LR (80%), followed by P (12%), SR+ (8%) - these %ages a rough guess on a casual glance without actually counting, YMMV.
It's the "I know I'll need to cash out" part that's the issue. The original plan was to get a Cybertruck, but the reduction of charge rate on the S means 30-60 minute SC stops rather than the 10-15 minutes of last spring. I won't put up with that for two years, so I need at X by next trip time. Anyway, what I sold wasn't doing particularly well (compared to what I have invested in TSLA is doing. These are still very green.).
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The point is, as soon as you make the decision to spend the money, I build a cash position ASAP, not let it ride hoping it would appreciate a bit more. If the timing was so poor as to need it now, I would likely figure out a way to postpone the purchase (assuming I had got myself into such a situation to begin with).
Perspective: TSLA is currently higher than it was at any point prior to Jan 29th, 2020. Unless you bought those shares in the last 40 days, you are up on the deal. If you had cashed out 2 years ago, they would have been worth ~$280, less that half what they are currently.
Credit for this idea goes to Jim Chanos or rather a TMC poster (with a handle I can no longer remember) who explained that short sellers like Chanos don't actually short sell just because they expect the stock to go down, but rather as a way to get leverage at an expected lower cost than via borrowing cash. (OK, quite obviously they also short & distort to increase profits/reduce losses, but we will leave that to them - and hopefully one day, the courts).
I saw somewhere today that David Einhorn who reportedly went from billionaire to millionaire by short selling Tesla has a long position in General Motors. Since I have the exact opposite exposure in Tesla and GM, my investment thesis now mirrors that of David Einhorn (but he initiated his much before I did mine, so it is not given that mine will end up with the opposite result). That suits me fine.
In hindsight: If one thinks the whole (automotive) market is tanking, then one could bet on that by first (short) selling - and sit on the cash until Tesla seems better priced. That's a case of trying to catch a falling knife, which FOMO prevented me from trying.
I guess these random musings are not even non-advice.
PS. Maybe it would have been more helpful if I had posted my anti-auto-investment idea right away, but I was unsure if it was something worth disclosing. Also, at the time I placed my trades, the market incl. traditional auto was already noticeably down, so I was unsure if my own trade had missed the train, i.e. if at that point the bottom had been reached and prices would stabilize.
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This is a great time to remind the world we need to say Fudge Off to OPEC and move quickly to renewable energy.
I, for one, am ready to welcome our new energy overloads, OSEC.
Organization of the Solar Exporting Celestial bodies.
They only collude every few years with an eclipse here or there.
America is always 2nd to Italy.
Italy has real Italians, America gets Jersey Shore kids.
Italy has Berlusconi, America gets Trump.
Italy will have 10's of thousands of COVID19 cases, Amerca will have 100's of thousands.
Correct, which is why I didn't sell any TSLA, only the poorer performing stocks.
I, for one, am still flying. I will fly only in C or F to give more space between me and other pax. I carry hand sanitizer anyway, have done for many years. In modern commercial aircraft the air is completely exchanged every 1 to 4 minutes, depending on the model and the air is scrubbed as it circulates. I do go out of my way to avoid close contact with passenger or crew. I many decades of flying through SARS, Ebola and countless seasonal flu outbreaks I have never been infected.Am I getting it right that you are still flying?
When I was flying myself I took great care choosing copilots and demanded usual sanitation measures for them and other crew members. For that reason I was regarded as eccentric (OK there were a few other reasons also, perhaps) but nobody acquired illnesses despite flying into several airports affected during SARS, for example.
After all infectious disease transmission is probabilistic. The more of the potential infection vectors one eliminates the less the probability of disease. Of course, public health officials do not expect the general populace to take precautionary measures.
FWIW, many years ago when I was an epidemiologist I developed an acute sensitivity to understanding risk factors. It is no different today.
However, when specific locations have aggressive denial and inadequate diagnosis/treatment those are good to avoid. Thus I will not travel to the US. Iran, Northern Italy at the moment. Shanghai, on the other hand, I would go, but at the moment flights are scarce so we're working remote. That's cheaper anyway.
I thought about hedging Tesla by buying puts of traditional auto makers. Reasons not to:
1) Most of my investable funds are in Tesla, so I have little cash to buy for,
2) the granularity (of 100 shares) is quite high, making for large investments,
3) this in turn makes it harder to diversify across different auto makers,
4) rather than paying options-premiums, I would like to collect them.
As for number 4), I opened my first bull put spread today, selling one 1100$ put with Jan. 2021 expiry (since on that time horizon I consider that strike-price an acceptable buy-price), and buying (as insurance) one 1000$ put expiring on the same day. I feel I have almost no idea what I am doing, executing new types of trades almost as soon as I think I understand them. I guess the idea is that if well before expiry the SP goes up, I can close both legs at a (combined) profit and then maybe later when the SP seems low open a new one expiring further out. Exciting times...
Rashomon
Member
So think of the good news: Tesla won't have to reserve soon for Musk's 2nd incentive stock grant . . .
While at first it looked like a good move, Tesla's recent capital raise now seems like pure genius.
Sean Wagner
Member
I just have to pipe up and say thank you for this one.
Biggest single-day S&P % drop since September 2008.
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