Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

I was kind of surprised how he downplayed Dojo given how much attention it got on AI Day 1

Elon was saying for a while the GOAL of Dojo was to make more sense than Nvidia GPU clusters at the work they need, and that while the engineers beleive they have the right approach to meet that goal, they have yet to prove they actually can.

This was just him reiterating that, with a target of next year to prove it or not- and reinterring they still believe the architecture is right to do that but it remains unproven so far.

It seems non-Elon folks (including a few in here) have had much more confidence this was a 100% sure thing than Elon has-- in fact he rated it less of a sure thing than either FSD or Optimius.



Speaking of a few folks in here- those who have been banging the drum of x.com being all of Elons companies combined-- when directly asked about the idea of putting them all under one parent on the call he said he didn't really see much value or overlap to doing that.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Free packs!

$70/kWh target
-$30/kWh cell advanced manufacturing credit
-$10/kWh pack advanced manufacturing credit
=$40/kWh cost
*100kWh
=$4,000
-$7,500 critical materials & manufacturing credit (to buyer)
=-$3,500 net cost before remainder of pack BOM and assembly

Don't laugh. Knowing how things like Covid relief was gamed to the limit through fraud, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see massive double dipping in the IRA.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I was kind of surprised how he downplayed Dojo given how much attention it got on AI Day 1

Yeah, Elon and the engineers have always been very cautious about predicting Dojo would actually "work" from an economic point of view. It is indeed very hard to complete against an industry that has massive scale. Even so, I love the innovations in Dojo.

 

[woodisgood]

Future is brighter than ever. But the next 3-6 months is the perfect time for preparatory hibernation.

By the way, for the record, I believe Elon’s tweet about the people was referring to Stellantis exec saying “The people have decided, we will be all electric.”

 

[ZsoZso]

It's been using the camera for a good while now, but still requires wheel torque... in part because the camera was never meant for this job, so it's in the wrong location (it can't actually see drivers hands in most spots and can't see the steering wheel at all) and it's not the right type of camera (no IR means it sees poorly in the dark or with sunglasses on the driver.... so it's surprising he's suggesting they'd decide to rely 100% on it--- though I suppose if they decide it's safe enough you do NOT need hands on wheel at all (which increases intervention reaction time so needs high confidence) then the bad location doesn't matter anymore... but the lack of seeing well at night or with sunglasses remains an issue for judging driver paying attention or not.

When he said you can go from home to work / friends house "without touching the wheel" , I do not think he meant that driver monitoring changes from wheel-torque to camera.
I think he meant, you can make the route without intervention. Just used sloppy wording not thinking about the requirement to keep your hands on wheel safety-check.

 

[MP3Mike]

Free packs!

$70/kWh target
-$35/kWh cell advanced manufacturing credit
-$10/kWh pack advanced manufacturing credit
=$35/kWh cost

You forgot to subtract the $10/kWh... (70-35-10=25, not 35.)

 

[Curt Renz]

The Street - last evening: Tesla Humiliates Volkswagen, Mercedes

 

[mongo]

Don't laugh. Knowing how things like Covid relief was gamed to the limit through fraud, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see massive double dipping in the IRA.

I'm not laughing, I'm pointing out the crazy low effective price/ margin Tesla could achieve.
900kWh semi = (70-35-10)*900 = $22,500 before pack assembly. That's less than a replacement Class 8 engine!

 

[Cosmacelf]

When he said you can go from home to work / friends house "without touching the wheel" , I do not think he means that driver monitoring changes from wheel-torque to camera.
I think he meant, you can make the route without intervention. Just used sloppy wording not thinking about the requirement to keep your hands on wheel safety-check.

Yeah, Elon is waaaay too sloppy when talking about FSD. It's like he doesn't realize his words can EASILY be misunderstood. Popular press article will be written based on Elon's sloppy statements leading people to believe they don't need to ever touch the wheel (no one reads manuals) leading to AP crashes. Pretty predictable.

 

[MABMAB]

Buyback is the easy interpretation.

told ya

 

[Sancho]

Solid call. Everything full speed ahead.

If there is no recession next year, I can’t imagine a better stock to own than TSLA.

If there is a recession next year, I can’t imagine a better stock to own than TSLA.

 

[OrthoSurg]

This is vintage 2017 stock pumping Elon right over here hahahah. LOVE IT!

To see the face of Rob Mauer when he realized Elon was doing some stock pumping was priceless. We reach -2.5% before finishing -5.40%

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If we do enter a recession, and if the macros go even lower next year, I think we'll dip between the 40-50 range for our PE in 2023 before Wall Street lets it go up again. If the market turns around then up we go!

Of course this is all my opinion, I certainly don't have a crystal ball or anything.

Ok, so PE of 40-50.

Which would be exactly what TSLA would be at after Q4 if they do at least 450k deliveries.......so I fail to see how PE compression will happen for a year.

 

[y_naught]

Hey wait, what was the comment about the stock price?

Elon started out saying Tesla could be valued at Saudi Aramco + Apple valuation or greater. Or twice Saudi Aramco. I took that as comment about the price. I can retract my bingo if needed :-(

 

[Ogre]

This wasn’t a quarter which will do amazing things for the stock, but lots of great tidbits confirming Cybertruck is on it’s way. Summing it up:

• Cybertruck Production Status upgraded to “Tooling”
• Musk expects to drive a beta truck in a couple weeks.
• 4680 production is scaling exponentially… (Drew apparently said 1000 packs per week)
• Musk: “In the final lap for Cybertruck. Building line at Texas right now.”
• Battery pack production is in beta.

Lots of things we’ve heard hints/leaks about previously are confirmed. Confirmation that they are still on track for first half 2023 production start is confirmed.

Super happy about this. The SP may suffer in the mean time, but fantastic to see the Cybertruck is moving forward. Bigger picture, Tesla is doing great and future looks great. The financial statements will follow eventually.

 

[Xepa777]

Elon was saying for a while the GOAL of Dojo was to make more sense than Nvidia GPU clusters at the work they need, and that while the engineers beleive they have the right approach to meet that goal, they have yet to prove they actually can.

This was just him reiterating that, with a target of next year to prove it or not- and reinterring they still believe the architecture is right to do that but it remains unproven so far.

It seems non-Elon folks (including a few in here) have had much more confidence this was a 100% sure thing than Elon has-- in fact he rated it less of a sure thing than either FSD or Optimius.



Speaking of a few folks in here- those who have been banging the drum of x.com being all of Elons companies combined-- when directly asked about the idea of putting them all under one parent on the call he said he didn't really see much value or overlap to doing that.

Oh really? Because I pointed out some of these flaws with an informed Reddit user's post HERE many months ago which I was then absolutely downvoted to hell and criticized from many members, including @The Accountant . But when we hear anecdotal bull stories (or EPS estimates) everyone eats that *sugar* up right?

Datapoints are useful, not just the ones that meet your confirmation biases. And it's sad that I have to wait until Elon himself says it on a call before people start to recognize those opinions.

I will also say I know someone on the Tesla AI team and did work for a major VC firm in AI. And 80% of my downvotes come from my AI comments because it's not full-on bull lol.

 

[bkp_duke]

I'm not laughing, I'm pointing out the crazy low effective price/ margin Tesla could achieve.
900kWh semi = (70-35-10)*900 = $22,500 before pack assembly. That's less than a replacement Class 8 engine!

Yep, I believe @Gigapress did a breakdown earlier this week or last week just on this. That the Semi beginning 2023 will be a gigantic money print machine for Tesla.

Probably the same for Megapacks too: cha-ching!

 

[capster]

Twice the market cap of Saudi Aramco, excluding Optimus: 7.86T x 2 = 15.72T.

(Of course, Tesla would likely be worth thousands of, or more, times the value of Saudi Aramco in a post-Oil global economy.)

 

[Nocturnal]

Yep, I believe @Gigapress did a breakdown earlier this week or last week just on this. That the Semi beginning 2023 will be a gigantic money print machine for Tesla.

Probably the same for Megapacks too: cha-ching!

And both of those things are essentially immune to the business cycle and consumer preferences. Just raw hard numbers.

 

[Knightshade]

Ok, this was pretty funny....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582861229965516800