I would like to stress a few important points before I start.
1. This thread is not about how good model 3/Y are and wonderful FSD is. Tesla cars are best cars for certain cohort of car buyers, and this is a fact.
2. TSLA valuation discussion is interesting and intellectually challenging, and it has almost no relation to how much we love our Tesla cars.
With above laid out, I would like to make a point: I think TSLA valuation is rich and the company (regardless it is AI or car focused) has a serious product/market fit challenge.
In US, about 15 million of new cars are sold each year and on avg people drive their car for 12 years, that is a total 180 million cars on road. We have example of Norway, which has highest EV market penetration, and high adoption of EV in Norway does not reduce fossile fuel consumption and improve CO2 reduction convincingly. So let us leave climate rationale aside for now.
Apple new iPad ad makes people nervous about massive job loss of creative minds. Are highly advanced and fully autonomous cars from Tesla really something that most folks want? Can you imagine a world that most jobs are done by AI and we human don't drive any more.
In my humble view, Tesla early success define its fate, it is too early for mass market adoption, in other words, it has a huge product market fit challenge ahead. Popping up giga factories in Mexico or India will only make TSLA financials worse.
People want safer and fun cars. But when AI replaces basic human skills, when robots replace workers in giga factories, when cars are produced so efficiently and yet much more expensive for future body work, this can be scary for car buyers too.
When handheld device palm pilot first came out, it was revolutionary and brilliant. But the company didn't survive due to product market fit. The device is too early for consumers.
I think Tesla is similar under this reasoning. And TSLA valuation is rich. Human transition into a new AI world is not on quarter basis per wall street analysts. And for foreseeable future we will continue to see beaten down Toyota trucks (not any EV) in Gaza.
So now imagine on 8/8/24, a million of fully capable robotaxi are on road. It will be a disaster for human from society perspective. For the past 10k years, we human do not evolve this way and we should give us time for the brighter future.
Disclaimer: I like to bounce ideas. I am neither long or short on TSLA. I do love my model Y for the most parts and plan to buy another soon.
1. This thread is not about how good model 3/Y are and wonderful FSD is. Tesla cars are best cars for certain cohort of car buyers, and this is a fact.
2. TSLA valuation discussion is interesting and intellectually challenging, and it has almost no relation to how much we love our Tesla cars.
With above laid out, I would like to make a point: I think TSLA valuation is rich and the company (regardless it is AI or car focused) has a serious product/market fit challenge.
In US, about 15 million of new cars are sold each year and on avg people drive their car for 12 years, that is a total 180 million cars on road. We have example of Norway, which has highest EV market penetration, and high adoption of EV in Norway does not reduce fossile fuel consumption and improve CO2 reduction convincingly. So let us leave climate rationale aside for now.
Apple new iPad ad makes people nervous about massive job loss of creative minds. Are highly advanced and fully autonomous cars from Tesla really something that most folks want? Can you imagine a world that most jobs are done by AI and we human don't drive any more.
In my humble view, Tesla early success define its fate, it is too early for mass market adoption, in other words, it has a huge product market fit challenge ahead. Popping up giga factories in Mexico or India will only make TSLA financials worse.
People want safer and fun cars. But when AI replaces basic human skills, when robots replace workers in giga factories, when cars are produced so efficiently and yet much more expensive for future body work, this can be scary for car buyers too.
When handheld device palm pilot first came out, it was revolutionary and brilliant. But the company didn't survive due to product market fit. The device is too early for consumers.
I think Tesla is similar under this reasoning. And TSLA valuation is rich. Human transition into a new AI world is not on quarter basis per wall street analysts. And for foreseeable future we will continue to see beaten down Toyota trucks (not any EV) in Gaza.
So now imagine on 8/8/24, a million of fully capable robotaxi are on road. It will be a disaster for human from society perspective. For the past 10k years, we human do not evolve this way and we should give us time for the brighter future.
Disclaimer: I like to bounce ideas. I am neither long or short on TSLA. I do love my model Y for the most parts and plan to buy another soon.
