Will Y Sales Flop?

[Shark2222]

Honestly, the car reminds me a lot of the BMW X4, which sells about 50k worldwide in a good year, and <10k per year in the US.

I'm sure this car will be more successful than that because of wanting a model 3, but picking the Y for practical reasons. Also, BMW has so many other similarly shaped and sized SUVs at the same price point that their sales of the model are understated.

Hmm, maybe this points to annual sales of ~200k? Maybe a LOT more if they can get a decent price point on the SR in 2021. Their guidance for 2020 is 500k total units, which would be a total increase of ~140k from 2019, which is somewhat consistent with this if they lowballed 2020 estimates.

I'm buying a Y, but I've long thought the suggestions of 200k (and in many cases, more) sales the first year were just way too bold. Using your example of the X4, you really think there was ever any chance the Y would sell 4 to 5 times as many in the first year?

With the events of the last several weeks you can kiss any thoughts of 200k goodbye. Mr. Market has spoken on the subject with the stock price. It was down another 5% after hours this evening.

The good news is that even if worldwide sales are only 100k, the Y will not be a flop. Think of the R&D savings achieved by basing the car off of and sharing so many of the 3 components.

If I were Elon I would take a page from BMW's sales results and offer an additional variant with a more squared off rear roof to maximize utility. At least in the U.S., one of the things most buyers look for in an SUV is utility. Note how many more X3's BMW sells versus X4's year in and year out, and the same with the X5 versus X6. And Elon could produce this quickly and with relatively little R&D dollars by basing it off the Y.

 

[IdaBish]

Both of these guys make some interesting points, and not sure what the definition of sales "flop" is.

The point about the Toyota pricing is a valid one. The majority of American families are not spending $50K on a new SUV no matter how good it is.

But I don't think Elon was ever going after that market segment anyway. The Y will find it's market nitch, although I'm somewhat troubled by the lack of disclosure regarding how many orders they have. In the past he has not tended to keep it a secret.

I don't know about Toyota... But our closest competitor would be Lexus / RX 450hL AWD Performance $50510 - base model. They struck me as shifty, like shorts...

 

[Uncle Paul]

Tesla does not care which of their cars sell the best. The market will determine which is most profitable.

If Tesla sells more Model 3 than Y, the company will not care.

As Model Y ramps up production, I imagine that more will buy that than the 3, simply because that is where the market is going.

As a surprise, perhaps the Cybertruck will out sell both of them. F150 is the best sellingFord vehicle in their entire lineup...by a lot.

Currently Tesla is the only automaker producing on the West Coast.

 

[evfeh]

The Model Y competes with the higher end priced crossover segment, like the BMW X4, Mercedes GLC Coupe. Definitely Tesla made the right move to fill the model gap they had as these types of cars are in high demand.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Imagine the Y will generate much more profit per car than the 3.

 

[Watts_Up]

Many current ICE or Hybrid owners would consider getting a Model Y, but will still hesitate because getting a plug installed is a real burden.

Many electricians ask astronomical installation cost, homeowner association doesn't cooperate, or you don't have an assign parking lot.

I wish Tesla has an installation packaging program that could be included in the price of the car.

If I want to get my car repaired, I need to go to a Tesla Service Center or an Authorized Repair or Body Shop.

Why Tesla is not then having Authorized Electrical Centers providing fair installation cost guaranteed by Tesla.

 

[MichaelP90DL]

Why Tesla is not then having Authorized Electrical Centers providing fair installation cost guaranteed by Tesla.

My guess is that would constitute price fixing, which is illegal. For example, car makers suggest a retail price (MSRP), but what a vehicle actually sells for is up to the dealer.

 

[IdaBish]

My guess is that would constitute price fixing, which is illegal. For example, car makers suggest a retail price (MSRP), but what a vehicle actually sells for is up to the dealer.

But they could keep a list of electricians who work with Tesla and Tesla Owners at fair prices...

 

[MichaelP90DL]

But they could keep a list of electricians who work with Tesla and Tesla Owners at fair prices...

Yep, they can do that. It'd be a good idea.

 

[ohmman]

But they could keep a list of electricians who work with Tesla and Tesla Owners at fair prices...

They used to do this. They had a supported electrician list on their website. I can't find it anymore, so I guess they got tired of keeping up with it.

 

[Mr. Burrito]

Many current ICE or Hybrid owners would consider getting a Model Y, but will still hesitate because getting a plug installed is a real burden.

Many electricians ask astronomical installation cost, homeowner association doesn't cooperate, or you don't have an assign parking lot.

I wish Tesla has an installation packaging program that could be included in the price of the car.

If I want to get my car repaired, I need to go to a Tesla Service Center or an Authorized Repair or Body Shop.

Why Tesla is not then having Authorized Electrical Centers providing fair installation cost guaranteed by Tesla.

What's with the out-of-control bolding?

 

[IdaBish]

They used to do this. They had a supported electrician list on their website. I can't find it anymore, so I guess they got tired of keeping up with it.

Find an Electrician

 

[ohmman]

Find an Electrician

There it is! Thanks for finding it.

 

[rxlawdude]

What's with the out-of-control bolding?

To boldly go where no one has gone before?

 

[Ken7]

With the economy tanking thanks to the virus, of course it’s a safe bet that sales will be down for virtually all cars, not just the Y. Compounding the issue is the fact that we’re getting close to sub $2/gallon gas in many areas and that certainly is not a stimulus for EVs. It has actually become significantly more costly for me to power my S than to refuel my wife’s Lexus ES300h that gets 40-45 mpg in any kind of weather. My electric cost is about $.20.

 

[electracity]

The Y will probably be one of the best selling cars in California in a terrible new car market. So what is a "flop"? Tesla gaining market share is likely IMO. The worst new car market since the end of WW2 is also a strong possibility.

 

[Catbiscuits]

Looking at the X4, I see a car with much less storage, much slower performance (except probably a higher top seed), and an antique, ICE engine for roughly $10,000 more for a comparable package. The interior looks like a mess compared to the Model Y’s wildly futuristic interior. I don’t see how it can compete.

 

[Wingwinghello]

The Y will not flop, but sales might slow down given the events we are dealing with now.

 

[jboy210]

The Y will not flop, but sales might slow down given the events we are dealing with now.

Agreed. Lot bigger issues than a new car.

 

[Saghost]

The Y will not flop, but sales might slow down given the events we are dealing with now.

They can’t even build them right now.

But I expect Y sales to be good compared to the rest of the market, once the factory is running again.

The whole market is likely in for a rough year.