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I think you need to carefully draw a payout diagram of this; in almost all cases I can come up with you just increase risk/exposure. It might also help to insert theoretical prices and strikes for what you are thinking.

I wonder just how much premium you would need to make a short strangle a smart move. I've done them before, but not intentionally-- open one leg and after sufficient movement OTM open the other leg. Sometimes it just isn't logical to close them

Seems like a heavy lift for the next two months to get there. From memory it usually moves most one side or the other, but not both. So, if up going in likely flat or down coming out of the split. If it goes down before then new buyers come in expecting upside. For NVDA I am still writing...

Dell doesn't have a winning short-term strategy. I think it has further to fall.

He isn't completely wrong, but not the right time to say it.

I would expect NVDA to be considered a hedge against that, at least after early session weakness tomorrow. But, my current floor for tomorrow is 1050. I will be excited to write puts for 14DTE there.

Is there any information you crave or knowledge you want the rest of the world/market to understand that would push it up? Same really goes for anyone with a bullish thesis. My current checklist for upward movement from here is a bit too negative right now so I will hold back. The most...

They cut at least 30% of the quarter's production in Austin for the quarter. Haven't been watching Berlin, but I expect there was a minor cut there too. Similar rumors were going around about Shanghai, but too hard to read for sure. So I am guessing total production was cut 50-85k vehicles for...

I got an "invite" for the foundation series today. My Y is almost 4 years old now... and I need to get it re-wrapped ($6k). I'd be "saving money" if I went ahead and bought one, right? ;)

The chart looks a lot different if you focus on 2022-2026. In other words, how representative is the company between 2020 and 2022 relative to 2024-2026/8? Expecting 20-22 to repeat is currently a stretch of the imagination... barring a huge change in the company. Alternately, where does...

It is all odd for sure. Sold about 35% of my TSLA stake today. I feel like the support levels won't really create resistance until ~150. Maybe it is just emotional thinking, but if the institutional holders aren't in support of the Board it seems like there is a challenge finding buyers. On...

Based on the noise here we are about in for a capitulation on TSLA. Interesting that it seems out of line with broader consensus. Opportunity... but which direction?

AAPL in the days of the iPod, Microsoft before them. Philip Morris in the ~70's, Monsanto in the 80's. All go through cycles, but it is less rare than people make it out to be. Nvidia has risks for sure, and we are in the middle stage of their current cycle. I doubt we will see 8x growth from...

I feel it is justified in the fundamentals. I have a 6-12 month horizon on NVDA right now; I wouldn't play it if focused solely on 7-30 DTE options. Blackwell should be addative to revenue and profit and not cannibalizing-- the market is significantly under-supplied in the GPUs currently as more...

On NVDA, I see room for 1200-1250, but it really feels overbought right now. Sold some -P1100 today for 6/14. Happy to acquire, happy for them to expire.

Nope. You need the edge cases. Synthetic data has the challenge of not being reliable; you can create a level of inbreeding that just produces garbage. Even things like trying to normalize data from Tesla's SX3Y fleet to the CT (treating camera data as 360° view) is very risky due to...

Honestly I am not finding any that work for me right now. The idea is essentially to sell near-the-money covered calls; I would prefer to sell them for June right now, but premiums are just too low. August -CC between 175 and 200 looks like my best bet right now, but I would like to see a bit...

This is based on my personal observations from obsessively watching drone footage. There is about 50-75% more activity with production now than there was when they hit 1k. There are a few variables that can't be factored out reliably on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis, but the averages seem...

Based on drone footage though it is pretty clear they are averaging well over 1k/week, although there was a bit of a reduction with the accelerator pedal issue. I don't think the CT deliveries will be material for another quarter though; 12 vs 24k is still a nothingburger. So stay out until...

Tesla has the infrastructure to build 600k/quarter, but to sell that many cars they need to be doing well in all markets. I don't think 500k is enough to rebuild faith; it can be explained away too easily after significant production cuts. Austin right now is maybe building 2,000Y a week...

When you have an edge and the broader market doesn't get it then it is a great reason to buy. I don't see any outcome of the shareholder vote in either direction or any measure causing material risk, and honestly I don't see the market thinking it does either... so no edge there. If one was...

I think we are range-bound between 170 and 200 until we get P&D numbers in the 600k range. I think 8/8 might give a little bump over that for a day or two, but that is about it. I know this thread isn't about fundamentals, but Tesla is trading at a PE of 46 with no signs of earnings growth...

If you have 90% confidence in the range and the volatility then it is easy to play; you just need to time the exit transactions. For me I have about 60% confidence in the range, and 50% confidence in the volatility... and maybe 30% confidence in the timeline. I view risk/reward differently...

Sure, it is plausible, maybe even likely. What is more likely is that the board comes up with an alternative compensation plan that is slightly more transparent and addresses shareholder concerns. I think what will really throw Elon into a tailspin is actually rejection of the reincorporation...

OR? I thought this thread is all about 160 AND 230 next week! ;)

The way I see some more pure AI plays moving I doubt that is the catalyst. To me I think we are in for a period of higher volatility for TSLA while some issues shake out. Pretty confident in NVDA >1100; sold a handful of -P1100 for 6/14, and I think some -P1150 elsewhere in June. I never bet...

Does Belgium have a more sane car sales system than the US? As in you have a sticker price, but what you pay comes down to your negotiating skills and the particular dealer you go to? Here the price transparency with Tesla (even if the price is volatile) is generally a breath of fresh air for...

Yeah... never liked roulette! Definitely need a careful strategy to play it.

Decided to start playing with SMCI. At a 68% IV it is a little easier to wheel, but much less clear trends. Trying to figure out some good entry points.

Wow, NVDA is now lower IV than TSLA. Time for a strategy shift.

Kind of a wierd question in light of the 10:1 NVDA split, but does IV reduce given a lower absolute share price? I know it is hard to remove all the externalities, but I assume (split adjusted) option volume will drop on NVDA afterwards. Maybe this is offset by other factors, but I would...

I'd actually say a log chart is the only way to look at something with an exponential growth rate component; it is disengenuous to look at linear charts and think they tell a full story. I prefer looking at the derrivatives more directly, but that is more personal taste.

I haven't listened yet, but look forward to it. Most of what you are listing though I already had priced into my thesis. From just a fundamentals perspective it starts to get expensive soon IMO. Still happy to accumulate and still happy to trade volatility and doubters though.

Boy, I must be the only one disappointed with NVDA earnings based on AH movement. Maybe disappointed isn't the right word, but the move is more than I expected for the earnings.

I'd love to figure out a way to do a second order analysis of IV and price delta to show independent sentiment data. One can see a pattern here in how discussions move and there seems to be a correlation that can be safely tapped. It was clear something was happening on Monday that signaled an...

The -c960 was sold for $40, and I have enough puts in play to easily replace the shares, along with another 6 blocks left. My goal this year with options is just to pay taxes and ideally make sure that the broader portfolio is at least flat. I do want to accumulate NVDA, but I want to pare...

All depends on your objective. Netting out $190 is fine by me, especially if I have another opportunity to buy back lower.

That is all relative, but -P900-950 are attractive to me with margin to cover assignment.

I have -P850, -P900, -C1200, -C960 for this week, and -P at 900 and 950 scattered out the next two months. I would like to be writing -P>970 for 6/7, but there isn't much time premium to cover the stock staying flat. Have too much risk for that scenario already.

I do... but see enough risk of $875 that I don't want to take on more exposure. I have 9 short puts already for this week which is more than my rule. I guess I could look at writing one -p850, but it is not really enough risk/reward.

Yeah, over 100% for some fairly safe trades! I have to resist the temptation to increase my exposure here, as emotionally I expect a pop to >$1k, but selling $1k puts right now is more than I should be taking on.

Yeah... just like any kind of insurance, insuring against the inevitable gets expensive and leads to a distorted market. One man's peril is another's opportunity though I guess. Personally I am still stuck being unwilling to play either side of the trade in Tesla right now. I should just...

NVDA premiums are great for this week on both sides. I was surprised that one (of three) put I wrote that was $5 ITM at expiration didn't assign. Was playing the arbitrage game in the last few hours to scrape some extra cash. 100% IV now, not sure I had seen that before.

It isn't about paying him; that is inevitable and right. What is wrong is to front-run the judicial process and hide in Texas. I voted for transparency and accountability first and foremost.

We bump up because the Board (including Elon) acknowledge there is a problem. That is a big step.

I have no objections at all to Elon having his payday. I just want him bound by a reasonable sales strategy. The amount isn't an issue for me even, although someone should be paying for the original fiasco other than the overall shareholder pool. The board (and Elon) did screw up which is why...

...until it isn't. From a fundamentals perspective, once earnings come out I doubt the weekly channel will hold.

I am guessing over $1k for NVDA. A few down days for SMCI might make it tradeable for me.

Completely agree. My "No" vote was a vote for greater transparency in the process and ensuring that the package is set in consideration of shareholder interests. The current proposal offers neither of those. I am fine with Elon getting paid for the work he has done... as long as that action...

More that technical analysis is independent of what the event turns out to be. There is always a catalyst to sustain a movement, although cycles can be kind of blind. I don't like just relying on technical analysis, but at times it is a much easier way to approach things. Especially when "Sell...