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  1. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As a regular user of two of those plus Tesla I think the Tesla lead is far, far greater than is shown here. Nothing even approaches the capacity of the Tesla app. Further, it has been so since my first use of my 2014 Model S app to allow remote use of my car when the service center lost the fob...
  2. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK, here it is, the 2022 version: https://networksabil.org/actualites/brazil-mexico-auto-trade-agreement-legal-insights-and-updates/ Because of the content rules it will be quite easy for some serious innovation. Some examples: Brazilian built BYD busses can be exported to Mexico, while the...
  3. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I'm uncomfortable to be in this position, but some perspective might be in order. Both MB and VW have their share of unforced errors. Both, however do have platform architectures that allow putting numerous models on the same capex base. VAG is known for their capacity to share dimensions and...
  4. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I bought VEPCO in 1973. Luckily for me I learned never to believe anything "a certified financial planner and investment advisor" ever says. MY best investments since then have often been rated 'F' our the equivalent. It was hugely lucky to learn from mistakes.
  5. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Exaggerated but...there are quite a few older people here who were in AAPL, then TSLA and gains multiples but probably 7 to10x would be more likely. I'd wager very few of them picked NVDA, but quite a few INTC and a few of the ancients actually were in PYPL, and some even pre-merger. I will...
  6. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The Tesla Energy business is far more than simple storage. The packaging is crucial, including Autobidder in the first instance, but also including direct energy supply in public supply form, as Tesla is so licensed and is active in many lucrative markets. I am more prone to emphasize...
  7. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Quite correct. The Autobidder system response to changes is faster, but battery response follows that, even more slowly in cases of largely distributed VPP nodes. That means by the time actual responses are effective could be much slower, even more than a second. The reference was to the...
  8. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is an excellent point. In my most humble opinion, perhaps that largest single contribution of Tesla to energy efficiency and renewability was Autobidder. The evidence of that is a very common practice now round the world is to use similar technologies to manage grid services integrating...
  9. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There is no question that this post represents the best bull case. It does dismiss any competition in BESS and grid services, in which there are now numerous global competitors with equivalent or better product arrays. Ones such as Huawei are now typical...
  10. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    We may all be exhausted by this issue. One bit of non-revisionist insight is the New York Times in 2018. It's been quoted before but many of us keep forgetting how we felt then: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/business/dealbook/tesla-elon-musk-pay.html
  11. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    FWIW, ExxonMobil, as successor to Standard Oil of New Jersey, has never moved but that is an accident of history. In 2022 more than 68% of Fortune 500 were incorporated there: https://corp.delaware.gov/stats/ Historically the Delaware motivations were largely tax based, but the Delaware...
  12. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    None of us who are human are infallible. Even well-informed and competent people disagree on interpretations of information, but do tend to agree on established fact. Here it seems many who disagree with a given post tend to avoid checking fact. Where serious disagreements happen among posters...
  13. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    OK, here si one specific rule change: "Rule 23 - Class Actions (a) Prerequisites. One or more members of a class may sue or be sued as representative parties on behalf of all members only if: (1) the class is so numerous that joinder of all members is impracticable; (2) there are questions of...
  14. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    If you refer to the many posts beck when these events were twos you'll read all about the changes in Delaware Chancery Court procedures and approach in the last few years. It was very well documented here and elsewhere. I, for one, do not want to repeat all that for people who will not do the...
  15. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Even in 2015 with my P85D I had those questions. from a Charlotte, NC query, asked while Supercharging at a newly comisioned site : "How much gas does it use? Only electricity, like right now", "...but how do they get gas down that tiny hose?" Questioner could not accept reality. Back in 2012 in...
  16. unk45

    iPhone 15 pro “always on” as Tesla key advantage vs regular iPhone 15??

    I also have an iPhone 15 Pro Max. I notice no difference with the phone bluetooth key from the late 2014 era model P85DL I had then with the iPhone 6Plus. The phone key works nearly always, but occasionally requires a bit of fiddling.
  17. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I was wrong. I did have a source, later itself corrected. I thought I'd corrected it before, but apparently did not. My apologies to anyone misled by the error.
  18. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Other that being incorrect on all your factual premise, you're also rather unreasoned in your view of driver information. FYI, : "British European Airways ordered a fleet of Hawker Siddeley HS 121 Tridents, three-engine jetliners that in 1965 became the first transports to fly automatic landings...
  19. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The only way shorting is actionable is if doing a naked short while not a market-maker, were someone able to do so. Otherwise shorting is quite legal, so long as the shorter has borrowed the shares. Calls and Puts are also legal, not actionable. What do you think is illegal about any of that...
  20. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Survey based dat such as JD Power does provide useful information but is misleading because of respondent selection bias. My data is not current, but the last data I had showed that vehicle sales were highly dependent on market segment. Within those segments in most major countries business use...
  21. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Same day completion of all documentation, including finance, insurance and title/registration has been done routinely for decades. In most locations around the world there are temporary 'plates' or some equivalent. I've personally done that and facilitated that numerous times in IIRC six...
  22. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Then why did Starlink just complete application for full mobile including newly designed small dishes, not to mention cellular service?: https://www.pcmag.com/news/spacex-cellular-starlink-system-works-on-iphone-pixel-galaxy-devices It's only a matter of short time before T-Mobile cellular...
  23. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    As a not-entirely OT fact about truckers in North America, there is this: "The U.S. is home to half a million Sikhs, of which the Sikhs Political Action Committee estimates that around 150,000 of them work in the trucking industry – which makes the sector an overwhelming favorite amongst their...
  24. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Since regeneration is a net increase in 'fuel', plus can stop the truck...it really isn't analogous to a Jake brake, whether from Jacbs or not. OTOH, your comment is really funny!
  25. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are numerous Dolphins (~ Model 3 sized) operating now in the Rio de Janeiro Uber fleet. I have ridden in them, one operated by a Chinese immigrant to Brazil FWIW. Especially with heavy traffic they are much more comfortable than are the ICE ones. My next door neighbor has two Volvo EV's...
  26. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    In context: https://www.volvogroup.com/en/news-and-media/news/2024/feb/volvo-completes-acquisition-of-battery-business-from-proterra-inc--and-proterra-operating-company.html In nearly all cases autonomy and BEV do go together quite symbiotically.
  27. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Remember GM gave up only in Europe. Their business is China and South America is strong and has not declined. The big question is what happens in South America as the Chinese popularize BEV's there. GM does produce lots of BEV's in China through JV and Chinese designed, of course. Then...
  28. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is an important point. In the rapidly evolving vehicle markets globally it's obvious but not inevitable that Chinese companies will continue to be dominant in BEV's. In most markets where Tesla operates they're very much holding their competitiveness despite histrionics from those who see...
  29. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It sounds plausible but...it is a Reuters story so does not have the instant credibility it might otherwise have had. It's even slightly disingenuous to quote an article that itself is a reprint of the Reuters piece. Are there other more credible sources? As usual for Reuters this one quotes...
  30. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Good point. I should have referred to his science books, several of which helped some young people to study the subject. Mine was this: His fiction piqued curiosity and his science books helped foment serious interest to pursue science academically. That was 1966, so everything soon changed, as...
  31. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Merriam-Webster has this wrong then. It is correct to say "Hard science" although that is an antiquated form since the evolution of quantum physics in general understanding. By definition no science is 'exact' despite Merriam-Wesbter's misunderstanding. 'accurate' itself is a generalization, as...
  32. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There really is no such thing as an "exact science". Check out Heisenberg: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qt-uncertainty/ Science, by definition is as precise as humans can make it be, but still it is not absolute. Almost everyone does not understand that, even though every Physics course...
  33. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Methodologies differ. Nearly all public companies with wide distribution have campaigns to support major corporate actions. Most widely held companies that do not have majority insider holdings have campaigns required to obtain majority shareholder vote for anything.
  34. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    While we do not know, I would be astonished were the people being rehired prior to their actual departure would lose anything from the prior employment. I would be surprised and disappointed were those rehired not have all their former benefits restored. If any of that has actually happened...
  35. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is a very helpful comment. I had nit thought about that in TSLA context, even though I’ve seen that a few times and even initiated it once.Almost all the ones I saw also involved a change in physical location also, so not necessarily identical to this case.
  36. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    That is certainly part of it. My underlying logic is the present day adoptions demographics of BEV's, not hybrids. Much of the global acceleration of BEV's has been coming from Chinese growth, including ones like Volvo, Polestar and BMW iX3 although they are not directly a major factor. In the...
  37. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The market discrepancies are largely explained by income distributions, taking the US example: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html Even though that 2022 data should a modest decrease in income inequality; The effects of the income stability at the top 5% with...
  38. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually that fits the mold. Dealer ‘participation’,( I.e. their finance profit ) derives primarily from markups on loans and leases. Those are technically rebates to dealers which are often, not always, conditioned on asset performance. Very early lease termination, for example, can trigger...
  39. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, it is clear! They would NOT. Even back when Chase Auto Finance experiments with Volvo ten year loans it was Volvo which paid the consequences. Commercial finance companies operate captives and offer subvened financing at times. This industry is roughly a century old and has entrenched...
  40. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, it is clear! They would NOT. Even back when Chase Auto Finance experiments with Volvo ten year loans it was Volvo which paid the consequences. Commercial finance companies operate captives and offer subvened financing at times. This industry is roughly a century old and has entrenched...
  41. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Does that help understand why no Superchargers? It is odd, especially because Santiago de Chile has one of the world’s largest municipal electric bus fleets, perhaps the largest one outside China; :How Santiago became one of the first cities to electrify public transport at scale
  42. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am bewildered by this one, especially since they could cover the entire country with a dozen or so Superchargers. A long-narrow country is not difficult.
  43. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is a crucial point in my opinion. Much of promotion is placed within the already existing customer base plus prospects directly influenced by existing customers. That, in turn, shows that many recent Tesla incentives, especially, Supercharger and/or FSD transfer, really effect changed in...
  44. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    To those who imagine I see Tesla as 'just a car company': You have never read my posts. Since early years I have seen Tesla as an energy company primarily because of JB Straubel vision and Elon Musk being into that vision; Since 2012 I have viewed Tesla as a design company, primarily because of...
  45. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    on FSD as a likely significant contribution to profits: First, I still count nothing for RoboTaxi precisely because even with technology 'perfected' there are innumerable impediments to widespread adoption, all well documented; Second, since 2015 with first Autopilot I have considered Tesla well...
  46. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For those of us who, like @dhrivnak , have been active since near the beginning or even before with Zip2 or other early Musk-led businesses, it is a bit disingenuous to dismiss legitimate concerns with formulaic acidulous misunderstanding. It is difficult enough for those of us who invested very...
  47. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    No, no…misunderstanding the facts leads to increect conclusions.
  48. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    This is an entirely incorrect premise. There is copious information here annd elsewhere explaining how actuarial processes, loss frequency vs loss severity work.
  49. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He referred to only auto insurance profitability for automated vehicles. Most of BH insurance holdings are not related to auto.
  50. unk45

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Anybody steeped in actuarial practice, Warren Buffet is a superb example, understands the impact of loss severity, and also the increased likelihood of self insured status for operators, with reinsurance for excess risk. That is not a recipe for good results in traditional car insurance.