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Yeah, would be great if Elon had a reliable internet provider with good download bandwidth.

But for very large scale inference.

I guess when Elon is talking about using 100M cars with HW4+ as a massive cluster it pretty much is this but scaled up:

Seems pretty straight forward. Give Elon a few milestones to the $30T market cap where he gets 10% of the company. Make an exponential scale where he gets 2% for every 2x in market cap with some milestones on Optimus deliveries and Robotaxi miles.

Tesla raising prices, that's bad. Note that all the people who were saying how bad it was that Tesla were raising prices now are totally silent. Imo sign of low rung people, they will argue asymmetrically. It's bad when outgroup x does it, but okay we ingroup y does it. It's bad when x happens...

Just a note of this. I remember back in the days when whales were betting $100k+ to manipulate the odds of Trump winning. Very quickly teams of sharks(many from the 2+2 forum) went in and bought all of those manipulating bets. The whales kept pouring in and the sharks were eating it up. Then in...

Odds of Elon's pay package passing has fallen, now down to 56%: https://polymarket.com/event/elon-musks-56bn-tesla-pay-package-approved?tid=1718168015813 Gonna be a nail biter! Everyone needs to vote!

Odds of pay package passing has dropped to 68%, down from 88% 3days ago.

I think many of the hard working AI experts listen to these guys and resonate with them: https://x.com/aelluswamy/article/1799646232559899098 Imo Tesla are not lacking for applications to their job listings.

I realize that if we actually read what Musk wrote IF(Apple integrates OpenAI at the OS level) -> Apple devices will be banned at my companies. So I guess this could be a subconscious shadow drama seeking aspie talk, where what he writes is technically correct, but neurotypicals will...

Ok, sell your stocks. And I really don't think he is bored. Optimus, Dojo vs nVidia, Cybercab 8/8, FSD China, 25k Model and AGI race with OpenAI for the stake of humanity. Doubt he finds that boring...

Prefer that people who are wrong discuss it on twitter so they can be less wrong over time. My guess that is a short discussion with Karpathy has calmed him down now. Let's check back in a few days. Also in a few years we will not remember this specific event, but we will definitely be having...

Think Elon is wrong here. But imo being wrong once in a while is not the end of the world.

I was mostly impressed by WWDC, then I read: Didn't think the ChatGPT integration was too bad, seemed like a very minor detail about Apple Intelligence. Is it really worse than appstore having ChatGPT?

Betting sites are giving 83% chance of approving the package. So imo keep voting and keep pusing retail investors to vote. And withdraw all your money from any index fund etc that are voting no and share that you are doing so on social media.

My guess is that Elon means that it forms some kind of state of the physical world around the car, like a NERF and as it moves and some areas become occluded it remembers what it saw a while ago.

Elon: "We are starting to get to the point where, once known bugs are fixed, it will take over a year of driving to get even one intervention." In the United States, the average person drives about 13,500 miles per year. I assume this is more a figurative number than an exact number. Maybe he...

Imo negative income tax > UBI.

We are suffering from exponential slope blindness:

China exports growing very fast:

If we get ASI, smart robots on earth, space mining and factories in space, build a dyson sphere etc we will have insane amounts of energy and plenty of matter and can transform the universe into plenty of beach front spaces like this: That is, if we survive.

Imo it's all about doing quick and dirty promotional videos to showcase something to motivate more funding rather than trying to do the long boring work of making a commercial product that can scale. Look how much more of a finished product the Tesla bot looks like compare to that bot. The...

If you want the probability of the outcome, imo just go to the betting sites. If there was a better way, you could use that to make money, so clearly few people actually believe there is a better way. Current odds are 65% for the approval of the compensation package… Odds historically are...

Looking forward to the rest of this exchange. My guess is that the "science" proving that CNNs are just as good will turn out to not hold to whatever Tesla is doing(which my unqualified guess is diffusion).

This is because good evals are very difficult to build - at Tesla I probably spent 1/3 of my time on data, 1/3 on evals, and 1/3 on everything else. They have to be comprehensive, representative, of high quality, and measure gradient signal (i.e. not too easy, not too hard), and there are a lot...

As someone who was followed Bitcoin since 2012, the same arguments were heard back then and it didn't stop Bitcoin from growing in usage. It's not easy to grow from $0 to $1/1337 and then to $70k in 16 years without a few ups and down along the way. Anyone who expected that hyperbitcoinization...

This seems like a pretty big deal: Maybe not super relevant to TSLA, but I assume that Tesla cars/robotaxi would get Starlink internet so maybe at least a bit relevant...

Swedish, Norwegian, Danish and Finnish Bank Nordnet allows you to vote:

A bit semi-OT, but it seems that the Iranian president likely is dead. Here is the prediction market for his status: https://manifold.markets/5bd4/will-ebrahim-raisi-survive-the-heli

Fei Fei Li did a great contribution to ML by scaling up the imagenet dataset. Imo Tesla FSD, ChatGPT are standing on her shoulders. The presentation was alright, a bit low on new content and lots of nice sounding words... Still a decent watch:

Imo X.ai should devote a large percent to alignment and recruit half of OpenAI who care about saving humanity(including themselves and their families):

+50 ELO from April to May. +100 ELO in coding...

Obv this will have massive effects on society.

This is how I see it. AI has come a crazy way since AlexNet in 2012. And the amount of dollars and hard work going into it now is so much more then back then. So it stands to reason that we will keep seeing lots of progress in the next 12 years. Software will solve so many problems we cannot...

On the other hand, it might cut down the rate of mutiny from other departments in the future... Maybe a small price to pay long term... Compare this to VW etc where the entire company will fight change from Herbert Diess etc and how much it might cost long term. Imo if you see someone doing a...

Another hint at v12.4+

Guess there will be a market for non-physical labor robots also.

Must read article: This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots