Search results

Next time, please say something before you vanish abruptly... helps keep the stress levels down! And obviously: great to have you back! 😊

Haven't seen any updates from our Captain @Mr Miserable recently, hope it's just a short holiday...

The European-sized registration plate brackets suggest these Highlands are headed to the UK, maybe to ROI (less likely given the fairly large number of vehicles).

I was a bit confused by this bc I wasn't aware of the backstory... here's the original report on the GALAXY LEADER hijacking: Yemen’s Houthi rebels seize cargo ship in Red Sea and call Israeli vessels ‘legitimate targets’

Is TANNHAUSER no longer of interest? Seems to be headed to Europe...

Given everything we know about new production lines getting started and ramped, the second alternative seems a lot more likely - first refreshed Model 3s in Europe sometime in October. This also gives Tesla a chance to clear out whatever remaining inventory of the current version they have in...

If my understanding is correct, the VIKING SEA spent less than a full day docked at Shanghai South, so she wouldn't have had time to be fully loaded there, is that a fair assessment?

What might be "wrong" is that Tesla seems to be starting the production of blue Model Ys in Berlin, so they might have reassigned all European LHD orders of that variant for Berlin production, which caused a delay given the slow ramp-up of the new colour. That theory is supported by the fact...

UK demand currently seems weak based on Q1 sales numbers (no way to check the actual order book AFAIK), and there's already a large inventory in the country. I'm not surprised Tesla is in no rush to dispatch a UK-bound ship.

🤣 Now I get it! Erm… (way past) time for me to go to bed… Anyway, TSLA to the Moon! 💪🏻

What a crazy idea, for a company during its growth phase to show… growth! 🤔 Of course, nothing in your post above should be misconstrued as an admission that Tesla’s demand in the UK is currently low, nuh-uh! [insert *nothing to see here!* meme]

Look at this table. Pay attention to the values highlighted in yellow. Understand what they mean — how Tesla’s sales move in relation to the overall auto market, not in isolation. If Tesla’s sales moved in lockstep with the overall market, there would be no change in its market share. Same thing...

Correct. My view is that it’s helpful for the investor community to understand what those reasons are, so they can assess the possible longer-term consequences. Others here are of the view that those reasons are irrelevant and are best to be ignored. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Everything you stated in this post as fact is wrong, it’s really amazing! No, Tesla wasn’t discounting cars when it was breaking delivery records in the UK last year. It also didn’t have inventory. I’m sure it had higher logistics costs at the end of quarters, but no discounts. And their ASPs...

You’re missing the point entirely, it’s quite shocking to watch! Nobody argues that Tesla should hang on to their cars until they find buyers at the original price! The point is that they NEED to lower prices in order to get sales, and even those lower prices weren’t enough for them to match...

The new-plate sales bump is in March (and another one in September), not in April. The plates get renewed on March 1st.

You’re not far off. But I’m sure you can come up with another sarcastic reply to this:

If the selling price is lower but the COGS/unit stay the same, auto gross margins shrink. I’m not sure what you think software automation can do to change that equation.

Norway was always a proven case of transport logistics and always obvious. This is different, and not even Tesla’s fault (as proven by the great delivery numbers in most of Europe); this is a UK-specific situation, and it might be worth understanding rather than ignoring.

If you think that expedite costs for shipping cars from Shanghai are more than £6,000/car, I have a bridge to sell you! Either way, you just repeatedly acknowledged that Tesla doesn’t have ”unlimited demand”, which was my point all along. Yes, they do need to cut prices in some countries to get...

I have no problem with Tesla cutting prices to squeeze the competition, as long as Tesla’s sales actually go up and they clear out their inventory. But pretending that price cuts + EoQ incentives + lower YoY and QoQ sales + lower market share + high inventory = *all good* is flat-out cultish.

Unwind the delivery wave to save on logistics costs. Cut prices aggressively at the end of quarter to boost sales for Wall St. Choose one? Choose both, and call it “smart business”! 🙄

There’s nothing wrong with deep discounts — effectively leaving money on the table, if your theory of overall demand matching overall supply is correct — just to hit arbitrary targets for Wall Street, huh? Do you think maybe £4,000 - £6,000 per car is a bit high just for “batching RHD...

How does that explain the progressive price cuts throughout March for the inventory listings? How does it explain the 3,000 free SuC miles for taking delivery of ANY model or variant before end of quarter, if Tesla is happy to have cars available on the lots in the next quarter? Did Tesla decide...

You’re confusing “cars in transit” — which makes sense for unwinding the wave when the shipping from the manufacturing site to delivery destination takes one month — with “cars filling up delivery centres lots”. There is no logical explanation for having cars available for delivery + progressive...

This wouldn’t have been an issue if they had enough orders. You only end up with high inventory at EoQ (despite offering deep discounts for several weeks and incentives for delivery before March 31) if there aren’t enough customers waiting to take delivery. I’m not sure why logistics keep...

They’re building more at Giga Berlin, this time on the logistics side. Tobias thinks it might be a warehouse.

Long-term as in the rest of 2023. If nothing changes in terms of Tesla's offer and/or the local costs (incentives, electricity tariffs, lease rates), nothing will change on the demand side either.

I'm not sure how you can argue that, when the verifiable facts are: 1. Model 3 variants saw the deepest discounts on Tesla's inventory page in March 2. Tesla delivered 9,953 Model Ys and 3,402 Model 3s in Q1 -- that's a 3:1 ratio; the Q4 ratio was almost exactly 2:1 3. The cars sat on the lot...

I would assume that a large percentage of the people considering a £50k car purchase will do quite in-depth research (video reviews, side-by-side comparisons, owners' forums, etc.), and that rumour was fairly prominent on Twitter, YT, and even in some mainstream media stories over the past...

Yes. I wonder how much the Project Highland rumours have affected demand for it...

I think you might be right... they clearly had a lot of underserved European markets, and it makes sense to actually deliver cars to customers waiting for months than to cut prices further in big markets where the wait times are shrinking. I've read (on this forum, in UK-related threads) that...

Which is why I looked at Tesla's sales as a percentage of: 1. total car sales, and 2. total BEV sales These should eliminate the seasonality factor from the comparison (unless one believes that Tesla alone is disproportionately affected by it). In both cases Tesla saw a drop in sales, both...

Sorry to disappoint, but no... there were plenty of cars available in March, and Tesla kept cutting prices in their inventory listings, with most Model 3 variants getting "showroom adjustments" of £4,000-£6,000. I actually stopped by my *local* delivery centre on March 31st and the lot was full...

Yeah, that prediction for March was completely unreasonable. Nevertheless, the actual number was below expectations (despite, incidentally, being the largest March delivery number for any European country for Tesla).

The question was "Q1 vs. Q4". There were 22,404 cars delivered in Q4-22 and 13,355 cars delivered in Q1-23, that's a 40% drop. And to answer the question: it most likely relates to much higher electricity prices (both domestic and at public chargers, incl. SuC) and higher lease rates as a...

I updated my tables for Germany and put all the large auto markets in the same thread for ease of comparison:

No RHD variant from Berlin (yet).

Tesla Model Ys from Berlin moved to the port of Zeebrugge. Any idea of possible destinations? Taiwan, maybe, or some other European port?

The main indication - aside from Tesla mentioning it in the Q3-22 update letter, where they were aiming to start production of the structural pack variant of the Model Y by the end of Q4, a target they clearly missed - is the fact that they recently (couple of months ago) started manufacturing...

That's how I understand it, yes. Probably an unnecessarily-technical way of saying that large trucks near the ego car and close-by objects during turns have a higher probability of being detected accurately.

Think of recall as *sensitivity*; it's essentially a measure of the detection rate of relevant elements (i.e. things that matter, as opposed to data noise). Recall and precision are the two metrics typically used to indicate the performance of a detection system. Wiki page on precision and...

Sorry... where exactly do you see LR Model Ys at £40k? The LR Model Ys in inventory start (in white) at £48,770 (£5.3k off), and the SR Model Ys start at £42,350 (£2.6k off) Tesla inventory of new white LR Model Ys Indeed, the Model 3 discounts are deeper: the SR-RWDs in inventory start (in...

Based on Tesla's new-car inventory levels going up today with a bunch of the cars being marked as "coming soon", it's fairly likely it did.

Yeah, the estimated delivery dates posted on Tesla's website are a poor indicator of actual delivery dates. While the Model Y Performance showed 2-4 weeks since January, all the other versions (both 3 and Y) showed "Feb-Mar" since January (or earlier) until well into the first week of March...

The ACEA now reports monthly deliveries for Tesla. While the larger markets are already well tracked, this should help with the "Others" and get an accurate number for the total European deliveries. https://www.acea.auto/files/20230221_PRPC_2301_FINAL.pdf

I'm curious about this; I was aware of the situation with Taiwan, but now S. Korea and Japan will also no longer be served by Shanghai?

HOEGH CHIBA.

GRAND HERO just docked at Shanghai South. Also, WuWa published a video of a drone flyover of Shanghai South from yesterday, when the GRAND RUBY was docked there. No footage of actual vehicle loading action, sadly.

UK monthly sales data is provided by the SMMT. Please avoid updating the tables with estimates from other sources which are consistently off by 5-6%. I have uploaded the official numbers to correct the existing (erroneous) ones. Based on the total number for Tesla sales in December and the...