Discussion of China in Space

[JB47394]

This is impressive:

Note that the sample return sounds just like the Mars sample return mission, and the relay setup is just like Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and the Mars rovers.

 

[bxr140]

NASA needs to contract with Starlink to build and launch a lunar sat comm system.

That kind of mission really isn’t in SX’s wheel house. Long duration, ‘deep’ space, high reliability, low quantities/mass.

The non-rotation (of sorts) of the moon also means that orbiting comms are really only required for far-side operations. Anything near side generally first-principals to surface mounted comms. Anything that’s landing has to have to-earth comms anyway, so it’s not like there’s extra stuff to bring down that you could otherwise leave in orbit.

 

[ecarfan]

This WSJ article positions China’s lunar exploration missions as a “race” with the US, and Bill Nelson’s recent Congressional testimony does as well, with national security implications, as that is the way he can get more money for NASA.

China Launches Moon Mission in Base Race With U.S.​

“My concern is if China got there first and suddenly said, ‘OK, this is our territory. You stay out,’” NASA Administrator Bill Nelson told a congressional hearing last month. Nelson said China’s aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea offer a clue as to how Beijing would handle a potential lunar dispute.

He has a point, but practically speaking there is no way that China enforce such a claim. And technologically, China’s hardware initially will only enable two taikonauts to spend a few hours on the lunar surface before departing in contrast to Artemis’s plan for two astronauts to spend up to a week. Of course it is inevitable, in my opinion, that China will continue to make significant progress in building more capable rockets and human-rated vehicles.

Rep. Frank Lucas (R., Okla.), chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, cited the mission [Chang’e 6] as an example of challenges that NASA faces. “To maintain U.S. leadership in space, we must pay close attention to China’s space exploration efforts,” Lucas said in a statement. “There are too many consequences for our competitiveness, our national security and our continued ability to explore space at stake.”

It won’t be long before there is a Congressional majority that starts to insist that NASA be given more funding for Artemis. It’s the early 1960’s all over again…

 

[scaesare]

Saw this yesterday:

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinas_rocket_engine_test_sets_new_thrust_record_999.html

 

[JB47394]

It’s the early 1960’s all over again…

I cringe at the thought, but there are a few differences today:

1. We have the 1960s as a lesson from which to learn.
2. We have a more purposeful goal than just setting foot on the Moon.
3. We have SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others.

The worst case will be the government pouring money into this stupidity so that politicians can sate their needs for prestige, then pull the rug out from under the entire effort. That would replicate the essence of the 1960s. Fortunately, we already went through the 1960s, so there should be enough people who can steer the politicians clear of a 1960s repeat. But those same politicians may get creative and come up with a different way to achieve the same idiotic result.

The best case will be that the government will move only as fast as commercial spaceflight companies are prepared to move. If the Chinese want to pour their resources into a prestige project, let them. Leave the slow and steady progress to the West, where they'll establish an industrial base that would make access to space a real and lasting part of our lives.

I wonder how long it would take SpaceX et al to land people on the Moon if the government didn't tell companies how to do it and only said that they'd pay to have it done. How about a simple contract that sets the price per kilogram delivered to the surface of the Moon, and another set price per kilogram returned to Earth? From there, they can start working on the economics of robotic missions, manned missions, and so on.

Does anyone want to do the math for cost per kilogram to the Moon based on the cost per kilogram to LEO? Starship is aiming for $100/kg.

 

[ecarfan]