Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[InDaClub]

I am trying to figure out what "OG" means.
The FAQ: TSLA Investor Discussions has definitions of many acroymns, but not this one.
I have my own list; that I plan to add to the master list at some point.
I asked my wife, she said, "Oh God".
google says "incredible exceptional"; maybe that is what this means.
still not sure.

Urban dictionary is your friend. Urban Dictionary: OG

 

[ammulder]

I've been thinking over what Apple's strategy could be and think they would just go straight for a ridehailing network rather than selling the vehicle, there would be quite a few benefits:

Not disputing the logic of your points, but the Reuters article that launched all this speculation said the exact opposite -- that in contrast to building a ride hailing fleet like Waymo, Apple would sell cars directly to consumers.

 

[Boomer19]

Yeah...i don't get Gali these days....He was def an original tesla bull...but his recent actions have been somewhat questionable.

he wasn’t original anything. he was ~15 at tesla IPO. (EDIT: i saw your later post about him being 30. i thought he was around 25. either way doesn’t change my mind. he’s not “original”)
although he seems like a good kid. a bit obnoxious. doesn’t tell me anything i don’t already know. rarely do these newly minted tesla reality stars tell us anything new.

 

[InDaClub]

How it started. (before S&P)

How it's going.

https://www.etf.com/stock/TSLA

 

[Tslynk67]

Three and a half days of markets closed, thank goodness for alcohol!

 

[ebullio]

I'm not the greatest contributer to this part of TMC, but i did enjoy your insight and wisdom this year.
Wishing you all the best!

 

[Featsbeyond50]

tesla reality stars

I like it. You should coin this phrase.

 

[Frank Einstein]

Merry Christmas everyone. I've been holding TSLA since shortly after the IPO, but I don't contribute much here because I'm not a finance guy or an engineer. When people know more about a subject than I do, I try to listen more than speak. This thread has been primarily responsible for my deep conviction in TSLA over the years and has helped me hold the stock through some pretty dark days. My family's life has been changed by TSLA. Thank you all.

Here's a leaked photo of Nikola's latest prototype (now with Uphill "Anti-Grav" Drive technology). Potential Tesla killer at last?:

 

[jerry33]

Also surprised that OG is an unknown term to so many.

OG definition

This thread is actually the first place I can recall hearing about it.

 

[jbcarioca]

... Did you even read my post? Where do you see anything indicating that I think Autobidder doesn't do its job well? I have no idea how well it does its job. What I said is that it isn't an example of particularly hard software, and that the hardest part (long term maintenance across divergent environments) is yet to come.

Yes, I did read your post. simply saying that it is not a hard software job is pretty solid evidence that you don't know much about grid management and dynamic grid supply algorithms. For a beginners view of Autobidder and grid management in a complex sourcing environment this QCon presentation gives a decent idea:
Tesla Virtual Power Plant

Anybody who's actually dealt with high precision, high accuracy near realtime multi-source, multi-use software systems knows that telecomm switching is a decent example of the 'easy' side of such systems. The hard ones have highly variable source, response times, transmission loss and highly variable transmission node capacities. Traditional highly refined grid management systems have worked on multi-minute response times because nothing could respond in smaller units of time.

The true transformational consequence of Autibidder within grid management was shown in the very first deployment, when nobody at all outside the Tesla team actually knew, so the Hornsdale Power Reserve (HPR) it astonished everyone:
Tesla big battery defies sceptics, sends industry bananas over performance - Energy Post
There is copious technical and non-technical information about this. In 2017 almost nobody thought wind power or solar power could become practical anytime less than two decades away. Within weeks of HPR a sudden failure proved the amazing capability of Autobidder with battery storage:
Tesla big battery outsmarts lumbering coal units after Loy Yang trips

That accomplishment has spawned the worldwide rush to install grid-level battery systems and the massive project to replace peaker plants as soon as possible with batteries plus Autobidder.
Several traditional grid management suppliers are devoting huge resources to trying to replicate Autobidder. TE is working flat out to increase supply and regularly replaces the world's largest battery storage plant with another one, Moss Landing ready to take that mantle within the next month or two.

So, if not "...particularly hard" then reusing first stage rockets is not really too difficult nor was using a jillion laptop battery cells to power a car. It all seems easy when somebody manages to do the impossible.

I don't want to give you a hard time, nor anybody else. I'm simply astonished by the degree to which many people minimize accomplishments they don't understand. Some such people also say that the Apple M1 chip is nothing special. It is very easy to assume that things which work so easily must be also easy to do.

That complacency is why only SpaceX figured our reusable rockets, and only a couple competitors, none major, have managed to replicate the accomplishment. That is probably why the 'simple' battery powered car hasn't really worked well for anybody other than Tesla, but they're now learning.

FSD is a harder job than grid management not so much because of software complexity but because the consequences of edge case failure are so dramatically bad. Methodologically the problems are closely analogous, error tolerance is the difference.

Frankly we all need to understand the practical effect on software design that results from a rise in fault intolerance and a fault-tolerant system. The complexity does not actually change, but the accumulation of edge cases and incorporation of those into as system becomes a wearisome arduous effort of data collection and labeling.

If we had a perfect world one person would have the genius of solving the mundane exemplified by Jeff Bezos coupled with the genius of solving the insoluble that is Elon Musk. In the meantime Tesla will be brilliant but with inconsistent customer service, very infrequently needed and irritating when it is.

So some fo us will ignore shortsellers because we know Tesla will continue with making impossibly large presses that allow eliminating dozens of parts each, making batteries more durable and making factories doing things never before seen, but largely invisible to typical users who think it's all mundane.

Securities analysts, even bulls, think Tesla is a car company.

 

[jbcarioca]

Man, lots of pushback for my comment--I wasn't knocking Gali--I quite enjoy his enthusiasm and was happy to run into him at Fully Charged earlier this year. Agreed that insinuating he's anti-Tesla or intentionally spreading misinformation is absurd.

I was responding to the notion that he's an old-school, iron-fisted Tesla bull. He sold all his TSLA stock in mid-2016 after getting fed up with the SolarCity acquisition (among other things). He recovered, but let's keep the facts straight.

Also surprised that OG is an unknown term to so many.

OG definition

A good many of us predate even Hip Hop by such a distance that the only HOP we knew was a Sock HOP.

 

[Boomer19]

I like it. You should coin this phrase.

you can all have it. happy holidays and new year...love you all!

 

[Nocturnal]

If the "apple" batteries are heavy, low range, but very fast charging, doesn't that suggest public transport? Buses, mini-buses, maybe urban compact cars. Why take Tesla (and all the other car manufacturers going into the space) directly when instead you can focus on a large market that isn't served by any major players currently? Would Apple want to see a flaming wreck when somebody drove on of their cars into a wall at 200mph? Seems like "cute" public transport fits more into the Apple public image.

Edit. I see others are thinking along the same lines.

This reaks of him being paid to spread FUD. Being that he is an OG Tesla Bull...i wonder what tipped the scales for him. First the bitcoin suggestion to Elon and now this...

I think he is just an excitable tech nerd who doesn't consider those types of angles.

 

[LTC_RRR]

I can imagine more stalls paid for by ID3s. Hopefully spaced at shorter distances to accommodate their range. Come on Henryetta, OK! Don’t make me buy that chademo adapter.

Don't forget Arkadelphia, AR, either!

listening to this and thinking who wants to buy a car that has such a short range that even at 6-minute charge you’d be stopping so often if taking a trip? I have no idea if Gali, and listened to his earlier joint video with Jordan, actually saw an Apple battery or someone feeding him a fake lead. To me a 67kW battery sounded more like a hybrid car battery maybe for Toyota or Nissan but who knows.

"who wants to buy a car that has such a short range that even at 6-minute charge you’d be stopping so often if taking a trip" - someone with a prostate issue

 

[kbM3]

If the "apple" batteries are heavy, low range, but very fast charging, doesn't that suggest public transport? Buses, mini-buses, maybe urban compact cars. Why take Tesla (and all the other car manufacturers going into the space) directly when instead you can focus on a large market that isn't served by any major players currently? Would Apple want to see a flaming wreck when somebody drove on of their cars into a wall at 200mph? Seems like "cute" public transport fits more into the Apple public image.

Edit. I see others are thinking along the same lines.

I think he is just an excitable tech nerd who doesn't consider those types of angles.

@Nafnlaus (Karen Rei ) did a great takedown on Twitter.

One point she made that I had not thought of, is that you can replace three times as many of those Toshiba batteries with 2170’s in the same volume/weight, thus offsetting almost entirely their power advantage.

3X as many batteries charged at 1/3 the rate each yields same charging speed (distance gained / minute). With the very minor side benefit of 3X the range

 

[MABMAB]

What up with this?

 

[JRP3]

The more I look into it the more I think Gali's information could be credible. The batteries will likely not be as heavy as many are assuming. The high cycle life and extreme temperature operating range means the cells need much less coddling and support structure, saving weight at the pack level. Might not even need liquid cooling/heating.

 

[Johnny Ma]

The more I look into it the more I think Gali's information could be credible. The batteries will likely not be as heavy as many are assuming. The high cycle life and extreme temperature operating range means the cells need much less coddling and support structure, saving weight at the pack level. Might not even need liquid cooling/heating.

Interesting. The more I look into it the more I think it's total BS with maybe a hint of truth. Will see how it plays out. Not going to let it occupy any more of my time. Willing to change my mind with new information.

Don't mean that as a jab at you - I could be wrong.

 

[JRP3]

Don't mean that as a jab at you - I could be wrong.

As could I of course. I'm just seeing that the technology could be at the point where titanate based cells might produce a reasonable EV range.

 

[Ulmo]

Does anybody know where production numbers for Model Y vs Model 3 are? I can't see them in the latest IR release.

In the last few months I drove almost ten thousand miles, and this became a rather prominent question in my mind as a result.