Universal Basic Income (UBI) is coming

[mrmage]

There are tools already available that convert BTC to fiat. I have a Fold card, that can replace your bank account. You can send your direct deposit to it, choose how much to convert to BTC and how much to leave as fiat to pay bills. It's getting easier and easier to move away from fiat and live on a Bitcoin Standard or use a hybrid system that plays well with both.

As for your friend, that's really terrible. I feel for him.
There are already programs in place, like Disability coverage, Medicare, etc... that are specifically designed for his unique situation.
At the same time, you picking an extreme scenario to try and justify UBI for everyone doesn't fit your argument at all.

An unintended consequence that people seem to not understand, or conveniently ignore, is that if a UBI is introduced, those other programs will essentially go away, or at the very least be greatly reduced. The gov has to pay for UBI somehow. No one will answer how they plan to do that (with any detail).
Barring another national emergency/pandemic, the gov can't justify simply printing trillions more in fiat to pay for a UBI.
It would lead to hyper-inflation.

I'm offering BTC as an alternative to a UBI. That's why this discussion is on this thread. I'm explaining my stance.
And rather than getting responses about how a UBI would specifically work and be paid for, I get more questions about why I think BTC is better.
So yeah, I'm going to answer those. And I've done my best to relate those answers to the topic.

UBI provides supplemental income for those who need it the most. Those on the bottom don't have money to buy assets like BTC. Besides, BTC is just an asset like anything else. NVDA stock is an even better asset IMO, because it is backed by a company that produces wads of cash and does something useful.

But it's too risky for people on the bottom rung of the economic ladder to buy NVDA or crypto. First, they can't take pullbacks, because they need to pay rent. Getting evicted is no fun. They also don't have the financial literacy. It takes years or decades to be an astute investor. Naive investors sell low and buy high.

Here's a specific approach to UBI. Someone else mentioned it, but I'll repeat it. Implement a negative income tax. For example, household income tax brackets could be like this:

HH income below $20k:
Taxable amount is: -($20k - hh income) x X%
In other words, if X is 50%: $20k income receives nothing. $10k income receives an extra $5k, and $0k receives $10k. No matter what they make, they make more by working.

HH income above $20k: same as today but start with graduated income tax from 0% on up.
HH income above top 25%: increase taxes 0.5-3%

To ensure there's enough money, the additional taxes / savings collected at .5 to 3% for the top 25% would be distributed to those below the threshold in proportion to the amount collected. If everyone decides to stop working below $20k, X% is decreased by the amount necessary so that the .5 to 3% paid would cover that. That would provide even more incentive to work.

Most of us here are probably in the top 10% if not 1%, but I would happily pay 3% more in taxes for this. The reason is:

1. The homelessness would drop almost instantly. The homeless tend to gather in HCOL areas because there's more public resources, but there's no little chance of improving their standing in a HCOL area so they're stuck forever homeless. With UBI, they would have the seed money to move to LCOL areas to bootstrap themselves back into the economy.

2. A negative income tax encourages people to work, because they always make more money if they work than if they don't.

3. Lower crime rates.

4. It would save money eventually, because ridiculous amounts are spent dealing with the homeless. Santa Clara for example, has a homeless population of around 10k that it spends $500M a year dealing with. That's $50k a year per homeless! It would cost less to house them for free, but would make more sense to do so in a LCOL area, which is why this needs to be a federal program.

 

[wdolson]

History has shown us that "free money" is rarely beneficial. People become dependend on this dole and fearful that it will end. They lose their pride and independance. Stop being productive and lives without accomplishment lose meaning.

Lots of stories of people blowing through vast lottery winnings, unexpected windfalls, large inheritances. These rarely end up being of much benefit to our societies.

Pilot programs for UBI has proven successful. Probably not all of them, but quite a few have.

 

[adiggs]

History has shown us that "free money" is rarely beneficial. People become dependend on this dole and fearful that it will end. They lose their pride and independance. Stop being productive and lives without accomplishment lose meaning.

Lots of stories of people blowing through vast lottery winnings, unexpected windfalls, large inheritances. These rarely end up being of much benefit to our societies.

Or, you know, the actual research in this field that consistently shows that very small $$ amounts are enough to get people off of the streets, or pay down debt, avoid utilities getting shut off on their way to being on the streets.

Equating a UBI with vast lottery winnings and other huge amounts of money is not exactly compares 2 varieties of apple.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

UBI provides supplemental income for those who need it the most. Those on the bottom don't have money to buy assets like BTC. Besides, BTC is just an asset like anything else. NVDA stock is an even better asset IMO, because it is backed by a company that produces wads of cash and does something useful.

Here's a specific approach to UBI. Someone else mentioned it, but I'll repeat it. Implement a negative income tax. For example, household income tax brackets could be like this:

HH income below $20k:
Taxable amount is: -($20k - hh income) x X%
In other words, if X is 50%: $20k income receives nothing. $10k income receives an extra $5k, and $0k receives $10k. No matter what they make, they make more by working.

HH income above $20k: same as today but start with graduated income tax from 0% on up.
HH income above top 25%: increase taxes 0.5-3%

To ensure there's enough money, the additional taxes / savings collected at .5 to 3% for the top 25% would be distributed to those below the threshold in proportion to the amount collected. If everyone decides to stop working below $20k, X% is decreased by the amount necessary so that the .5 to 3% paid would cover that. That would provide even more incentive to work.

Most of us here are probably in the top 10% if not 1%, but I would happily pay 3% more in taxes for this. The reason is:

1. The homelessness would drop almost instantly. The homeless tend to gather in HCOL areas because there's more public resources, but there's no little chance of improving their standing in a HCOL area so they're stuck forever homeless. With UBI, they would have the seed money to move to LCOL areas to bootstrap themselves back into the economy.

2. A negative income tax encourages people to work, because they always make more money if they work than if they don't.

3. Lower crime rates.

4. It would save money eventually, because ridiculous amounts are spent dealing with the homeless. Santa Clara for example, has a homeless population of around 10k that it spends $500M a year dealing with. That's $50k a year per homeless! It would cost less to house them for free, but would make more sense to do so in a LCOL area, which is why this needs to be a federal program.

Okay, this is very informative, thank you.
I've been under the impression that a UBI would be basically the same amount for everyone.

If I'm understanding you correctly, UBI is just a repackaged form of welfare, with better optics and marketing.
It's a Robin Hood plan to tax the rich and give to the poor.
It would require a complete overhaul of the entire federal tax system.
No way you're getting all of that through the fractured joke of a Congress we have now.

It's just the states throwing up their hands and giving all control to the fed. But what should be happening is more resources at the local level, where those involved are most knowledgeable about it, and can use the resources in the right places. And if that's not happening currently, then it's the local leadership that needs to change.
UBI is not a silver bullet. It doesn't address the real issue. The current fiat system is rigged. It benefits those closest to the money printer (banks, Wall St, corps), and punishes everyone else.

If you've ever done any work with the homeless, you would know they're homeless for a reason, and it's usually not money.
The majority of homeless have either addiction issues, or mental health issues. They can't keep a job. They aren't good with money.
So just giving them more money is not going to help the problem. Shipping them to LCOL areas isn't the answer either.
That's why using the homeless as your reasoning for a UBI doesn't work.
Of course you'd "happily pay 3% more" just so you don't have to deal with the actual problem. Typical white privilege answer.

A sound currency, that cannot be printed into oblivion, or manipulated at every level, or requires a 3rd party approval (bank), would benefit everyone not in the top 1%. A currency that isn't getting inflated away, that can actually grow in value over time, that doesn't require permission to use, is how the lower and middle classes start to regain the ability to truly better themselves.

UBI is a crutch (bailout), attached to a ball and chain (Fed gov), placed on top of quicksand (Fiat).
You're welcome to go pick it up. I'm not. And I certainly don't want the gov forcing me to follow you.

Bitcoin is the wooden plank placed across the sand pit (better currency), and the rope attached to a strong tree (exit from the rigged system). Bitcoin is not a stock. It's not like any other asset that has ever existed.
The sooner we all exit their game, and start playing one that is not rigged against us, the sooner we can start to save our society, fix the economy, and improve our psyche.
It's all connected to the money. That's what we've all consented. Worshipping the might dollar.
Money is not the root of all evil. The love of money is. Money simply magnifies who you already are.

So if the money itself becomes easier to keep, easier to grow. The collective psyche of society can relax, it can breathe. Everyone can begin to feel hope again, because dreams won't seem so unattainable. And that will lead to less stress, less anxiety, less uncertainty. Which will lead to more creativity, less mental illness, and far more overall happiness.
None of that happens overnight. It takes time, generations even. But now is the time to start that journey. Now is the time to exit the rigged system and begin to heal. Bitcoin is that exit. Bitcoin is that hope. It's freedom money.

UBI is slavery money no matter how you look at it. It's the short-sighted short-term attempt to treat superficial symptoms of the deeper cancer. It's a way for the current establishment to continue to kick the can of responsibility down to the next generation.
No, we have to go straight to the source of the cancer and cut it out. Bitcoin is the antidote to the poison that is fiat.
Cure the money, cure the world.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

Pilot programs for UBI has proven successful. Probably not all of them, but quite a few have.

Never at scale.
It doesn't scale, isn't sustainable.

 

[mrmage]

Okay, this is very informative, thank you.
I've been under the impression that a UBI would be basically the same amount for everyone.

If I'm understanding you correctly, UBI is just a repackaged form of welfare, with better optics and marketing.
It's a Robin Hood plan to tax the rich and give to the poor.
It would require a complete overhaul of the entire federal tax system.
No way you're getting all of that through the fractured joke of a Congress we have now.

It's just the states throwing up their hands and giving all control to the fed. But what should be happening is more resources at the local level, where those involved are most knowledgeable about it, and can use the resources in the right places. And if that's not happening currently, then it's the local leadership that needs to change.
UBI is not a silver bullet. It doesn't address the real issue. The current fiat system is rigged. It benefits those closest to the money printer (banks, Wall St, corps), and punishes everyone else.

If you've ever done any work with the homeless, you would know they're homeless for a reason, and it's usually not money.
The majority of homeless have either addiction issues, or mental health issues. They can't keep a job. They aren't good with money.
So just giving them more money is not going to help the problem. Shipping them to LCOL areas isn't the answer either.
That's why using the homeless as your reasoning for a UBI doesn't work.
Of course you'd "happily pay 3% more" just so you don't have to deal with the actual problem. Typical white privilege answer.

A sound currency, that cannot be printed into oblivion, or manipulated at every level, or requires a 3rd party approval (bank), would benefit everyone not in the top 1%. A currency that isn't getting inflated away, that can actually grow in value over time, that doesn't require permission to use, is how the lower and middle classes start to regain the ability to truly better themselves.

UBI is a crutch (bailout), attached to a ball and chain (Fed gov), placed on top of quicksand (Fiat).
You're welcome to go pick it up. I'm not. And I certainly don't want the gov forcing me to follow you.

Bitcoin is the wooden plank placed across the sand pit (better currency), and the rope attached to a strong tree (exit from the rigged system). Bitcoin is not a stock. It's not like any other asset that has ever existed.
The sooner we all exit their game, and start playing one that is not rigged against us, the sooner we can start to save our society, fix the economy, and improve our psyche.
It's all connected to the money. That's what we've all consented. Worshipping the might dollar.
Money is not the root of all evil. The love of money is. Money simply magnifies who you already are.

So if the money itself becomes easier to keep, easier to grow. The collective psyche of society can relax, it can breathe. Everyone can begin to feel hope again, because dreams won't seem so unattainable. And that will lead to less stress, less anxiety, less uncertainty. Which will lead to more creativity, less mental illness, and far more overall happiness.
None of that happens overnight. It takes time, generations even. But now is the time to start that journey. Now is the time to exit the rigged system and begin to heal. Bitcoin is that exit. Bitcoin is that hope. It's freedom money.

UBI is slavery money no matter how you look at it. It's the short-sighted short-term attempt to treat superficial symptoms of the deeper cancer. It's a way for the current establishment to continue to kick the can of responsibility down to the next generation.
No, we have to go straight to the source of the cancer and cut it out. Bitcoin is the antidote to the poison that is fiat.
Cure the money, cure the world.

Of course UBI is a form of welfare. The OP was what happens if/when robots and AI take away most the jobs. Countries can't let half their population starve or be homeless.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

Of course UBI is a form of welfare. The OP was what happens if/when robots and AI take away most the jobs. Countries can't let half their population starve or be homeless.

I would argue that those countries are the cause of the problem, not AI/robots.
These problems already exist, and have long before computers.
So why not go at the source now! Why wait for some imaginary time in the future?

You act like AI/robots took over yesterday. They aren't taking over tomorrow, or next year. Change happens slowly. Not as slowly as a century ago, but slow enough. As AI and robots are incorporated, so will new jobs they create. It's happened in every other major innovation in history, and it will be similar for this one.
Jobs taken by AI/robots, will be replaced by other jobs that don't exist currently.
People act like a factory worker is going to lose their job and have nothing else they can possibly do. That's ludicrous! I see tons of 'Now Hiring" signs all over the place. Do you want to work? If so, there are jobs available.
But if you only want to work a specific job, and AI can do it better, well then you better start learning how to do something else. Adapt.

You're telling me half the population will just stop trying to support their families?
Half of society can't do anything that a robot can't do? BS.
You're thinking in worse case scenarios. It's not going to be like that.

The real threat is at the education level. We've just allowed decades of decay to occur in public schools, to the point where the Industrial Age system of spitting out drone employees has finally caught up with us.
We need to start changing the curriculum to focus on studying subjects that won't be eliminated by AI/robots.
That way our future generations avoid the catastrophe you think is coming next year.

And since when is it the government's responsibility to take care of people? Where's the personal accountability?
UBI is a participation trophy. There are good civil service programs for the truly in need.
Sorry to burst people's bubble, but we're not all equal. Some are smarter. Some are stronger. Some are more creative. And yes, there are some that just aren't. What's the rule of nature?
It's not the gov's job to spoon feed the people. There's no such thing as a free lunch. The entitlement mentality needs to go.
You're not special just for existing.
Do something special.
Earn it.

 

[mrmage]

I would argue that those countries are the cause of the problem, not AI/robots.
These problems already exist, and have long before computers.
So why not go at the source now! Why wait for some imaginary time in the future?

You act like AI/robots took over yesterday. They aren't taking over tomorrow, or next year. Change happens slowly. Not as slowly as a century ago, but slow enough. As AI and robots are incorporated, so will new jobs they create. It's happened in every other major innovation in history, and it will be similar for this one.
Jobs taken by AI/robots, will be replaced by other jobs that don't exist currently.
People act like a factory worker is going to lose their job and have nothing else they can possibly do. That's ludicrous! I see tons of 'Now Hiring" signs all over the place. Do you want to work? If so, there are jobs available.
But if you only want to work a specific job, and AI can do it better, well then you better start learning how to do something else. Adapt.

You're telling me half the population will just stop trying to support their families?
Half of society can't do anything that a robot can't do? BS.
You're thinking in worse case scenarios. It's not going to be like that.

The real threat is at the education level. We've just allowed decades of decay to occur in public schools, to the point where the Industrial Age system of spitting out drone employees has finally caught up with us.
We need to start changing the curriculum to focus on studying subjects that won't be eliminated by AI/robots.
That way our future generations avoid the catastrophe you think is coming next year.

And since when is it the government's responsibility to take care of people? Where's the personal accountability?
UBI is a participation trophy. There are good civil service programs for the truly in need.
Sorry to burst people's bubble, but we're not all equal. Some are smarter. Some are stronger. Some are more creative. And yes, there are some that just aren't. What's the rule of nature?
It's not the gov's job to spoon feed the people. There's no such thing as a free lunch. The entitlement mentality needs to go.
You're not special just for existing.
Do something special.
Earn it.

Again, the original premise of the OP was when/if robots and AI are advanced enough to take over most jobs, UBI will be required. If you do not believe in the premise, there is no need to discuss anything. Just say you reject the premise and that's the end of discussion.

Also, you seem unhappy with the idea that 50% of the people may need some kind of social service / safety net / welfare. What's the big deal when it's already up to 25% today? This graph should make it fairly obvious why. Ever since 1973, typical workers have not been compensated in proportion to productivity. In effect, people are getting poorer whether they have jobs or not.

When productivity doubles a few more times due to AI / robotics, it gets even worse.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

Again, the original premise of the OP was when/if robots and AI are advanced enough to take over most jobs, UBI will be required. If you do not believe in the premise, there is no need to discuss anything. Just say you reject the premise and that's the end of discussion.

Also, you seem unhappy with the idea that 50% of the people may need some kind of social service / safety net / welfare. What's the big deal when it's already up to 25% today? This graph should make it fairly obvious why. Ever since 1973, typical workers have not been compensated in proportion to productivity. In effect, people are getting poorer whether they have jobs or not.

When productivity doubles a few more times due to AI / robotics, it gets even worse.

View attachment 1054182

Did you get that chart from WTF Happened In 1971?
If not, check it out. You see that one, and many more.

You'll see how many aspects of life were affected when fiat money was introduced.
Yes, that chart is showing the productivity to hrly compensation correlation. But it's actually an example of a byproduct of inflation.
You said it without even realizing it: " people are getting poorer whether they have jobs or not."
Because as soon as Nixon took us off the Gold Standard in '71, there was no longer any incentive for any companies close to the money printer to give raises. They didn't need to. The government just printed money and corporations could buy that debt and make a profit.

It always leads back to the money! Over 50 years of decline! All because we no longer have a sound money.

UBI will never be "required". Ya know, economies existed, and worked perfectly well, long before governments existed.
A true open market capitalistic economy works without a gov meddling in it. An open market sets it's own prices, levels it's own margins, corrects itself through good business practices. The government is never "required" when it comes to the economy. Good businesses succeed. Bad ones fail. As it should be.

Most of the non-1st World countries on the planet have over 50% of their populations that live in poverty (by our standards), and need all the services we've been talking about.
Why don't they have UBI's?
Because the majority of them live under dictatorships and totalitarian regimes that don't give a sh!t about their citizens.
And those govs have complete control of the currency.
We're spoiled in the US. Everyone else uses our dollar to back their currencies. That gives us all the control.
That is starting to change. Many countries have lost confidence in the USD. They aren't buying our debt anymore. So it's forcing the Fed Reserve to buy it. Why do you think the BRICs countries are trying to go back on the Gold Standard? They see the devaluing of the USD.

This country couldn't afford a UBI while on a Fiat Standard. Plain and simple.

Everyone is so resistant to change: "Just give me the free money, don't make me change my bad habits and be held accountable."
Whatever. Go ahead, make the same mistakes the Roman Empire did. People alive today won't be around for the fall anyway.
I'm out.

 

[wdolson]

Did you get that chart from WTF Happened In 1971?
If not, check it out. You see that one, and many more.

You'll see how many aspects of life were affected when fiat money was introduced.
Yes, that chart is showing the productivity to hrly compensation correlation. But it's actually an example of a byproduct of inflation.
You said it without even realizing it: " people are getting poorer whether they have jobs or not."
Because as soon as Nixon took us off the Gold Standard in '71, there was no longer any incentive for any companies close to the money printer to give raises. They didn't need to. The government just printed money and corporations could buy that debt and make a profit.

It always leads back to the money! Over 50 years of decline! All because we no longer have a sound money.

UBI will never be "required". Ya know, economies existed, and worked perfectly well, long before governments existed.
A true open market capitalistic economy works without a gov meddling in it. An open market sets it's own prices, levels it's own margins, corrects itself through good business practices. The government is never "required" when it comes to the economy. Good businesses succeed. Bad ones fail. As it should be.

Most of the non-1st World countries on the planet have over 50% of their populations that live in poverty (by our standards), and need all the services we've been talking about.
Why don't they have UBI's?
Because the majority of them live under dictatorships and totalitarian regimes that don't give a sh!t about their citizens.
And those govs have complete control of the currency.
We're spoiled in the US. Everyone else uses our dollar to back their currencies. That gives us all the control.
That is starting to change. Many countries have lost confidence in the USD. They aren't buying our debt anymore. So it's forcing the Fed Reserve to buy it. Why do you think the BRICs countries are trying to go back on the Gold Standard? They see the devaluing of the USD.

This country couldn't afford a UBI while on a Fiat Standard. Plain and simple.

Everyone is so resistant to change: "Just give me the free money, don't make me change my bad habits and be held accountable."
Whatever. Go ahead, make the same mistakes the Roman Empire did. People alive today won't be around for the fall anyway.
I'm out.

Correlation does not equate to causation. Just because something you think is important happened in 1971 and the something else happened two years later. That doesn't mean one caused the other.

A lot of things happened in the 1970s. The split of the lines starts in 1973 which was when the US's dominance of the world oil market faltered. The oil chaos in the 1970s did cause economic problems in most western countries. By 1979 inflation and interest rates were going nuts in the US, which is a major reason Reagan won in 1980.

It's clear you believe Bitcoin is the answer to everything economic. Others disagree with you and at this point all we're doing is talking past one another. Let's agree to disagree and see how things shake out in the future?