News

Rivian Files for IPO Targeting $80 Billion Valuation

Electric vehicle upstart Rivian has filed for an initial public offering that would value the company between $70-80 billion.

The company is currently pursuing two segments, electric delivery vans for companies like Amazon, and an electric pickup and SUV aimed at adventure seekers.

While Amazon currently has Rivian vans in operation, the consumer vehicles have yet to be delivered. Rivian says the first production versions of the R1T pickup will be delivered next month.

Rivian has raised a whopping $10.5 billion since 2019 from strategics including Amazon and Ford. Other investors include Soros Fund Management and BlackRock.

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk took a jab at the company following the filing. Replying to a tweet about the filing, Musk replied, “Don’t want to be unreasonable, but maybe they should be required to deliver at least one vehicle per billion dollars of valuation before the IPO?”

More info on Rivian’s finances and timeframe for IPO are expected in coming weeks.

Gauss Guzzler

Member
Dec 27, 2020
443
546
Thousand Oaks, California
The Rivian has really cute headlights, there's no denying it.

But they've never made anything - not a single product has ever been sold in the entire history of the company. And they've been in business since 2009! The "fundraising" business, that is.

Now they're proclaiming that they are somehow on par with Tesla. No, wait, make that 35,000% more valuable than Tesla.
That's not a typo, they literally said they are 35,000% more valuable than Tesla was at the time of it's 2010 IPO.

To be fair, Rivian has something Tesla doesn't. Jeff Bezos. Jeff is richer than Elon and his rocket is more succinctly shaped. But shame on any investors that fall for this. The company is fake, the contract is a sham. You should never base investment decisions entirely on the manliness of the owner's rocket. Sure, those Amazon delivery vehicles will be "mostly" built, but they'll only be marginally operational for a few years before vanishing into a landfill just quietly enough to avoid lawsuits. Meanwhile the money Jeff loses on that bad purchase will pale in comparison to the fortune he makes from this IPO.

Tesla needs competition. And more importantly the world needs to abandon fossil cars ASAP. We need Ford, Polestar, GM, BYD, Toyota, BMW and every able-company in the world to compete and collaborate in this transition. What we don't need is jackasses like RJ Scaringe setting back the entire industry by bilking foolish politicians and investors out of their money.

The headlights are pretty cool though. I do like them.
 

uujjj2

Member
Aug 11, 2020
489
1,911
San Jose, CA
RJ should reply to Elon: "Yep, that's the plan"

If Rivian were to IPO today, there's no way they could hold that valuation. They'd be on par with Lucid, around $30B. But if they have a successful product launch and also reveal some future products and expansion plans, they should be able to surpass that $80B valuation. And unlike Lucid, Rivian has raised enough private money to hold off on the IPO until well after the launch.
 
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El joe

Member
Jan 29, 2019
706
564
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If Rivian were to IPO today, there's no way they could hold that valuation. They'd be on par with Lucid, around $30B.
I agree with you. But either of these companies currently being worth even $30b seem crazy, to me, seeing as how they haven't delivered anything nor have they gotten EPA testing, substantial reviews, etc. Though I do have some Lucid stock and continue to invest. Once they start getting some concrete review and start delivering, I think the stock will skyrocket. Worst-case scenario is they tank and someone buys them, which will also cause the stock to rocket.

And I'll definitely be buying Rivian should they go public. With the companies backing them, I can't see them failing.
 
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Gauss Guzzler

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Dec 27, 2020
443
546
Thousand Oaks, California
Be careful. It's surprisingly simple to build a prototype electric car. All you really need is one talented art student. The rest can be cobbled together with some fiberglass and an old golf cart. People do this every day with "air taxis" - an art student, an old golf cart, and bam! investors are throwing billions of dollars at you despite the fact that your product obviously can't possibly work as advertised. A sleek modern design and a nice website are literally the only things investors look for.

Lucid obviously can't work as advertised. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that a company that has spent 14 years doing nothing but fundraising can't just miraculously produce a car out of nowhere that is superior to every car in the world in every possible way right off the bat from day 1. Their specs are laughable - they simply took every spec from every car on the market and claimed to exceed them all. Don't you think Nissan would have thought of that if it were so easy?

Remember that Tesla just baaaarely made it over the hump. And all they were doing was slapping Cocconi's powertrain into Lotuses for the first 9 years. How hard is that? Well, apparently pretty hard as it nearly depleted Elon's fortune. Then it took another 5 years of boutique cars plus an IPO before they could even start to produce a real product. Lucid is not going to simply skip all that and begin selling these awesome $70K cars tomorrow. They're going to keep doing what they do best - raising money.

You want to talk about BYD? Polestar? Tata? Ford? I'm all ears. Those companies have the resources to make it happen. But these jerks who exploit some poor art student in order to bilk investors out of billions of dollars by simply pretending to jump on the "electric bandwagon" make me sick.

Laugh at me now but remember to come back in 5 years after Nio has acquired Lucid out of bankruptcy and Stellantis has similarly absorbed Rivian.
 
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AquaY

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
May 30, 2021
291
768
Long Island NY
Be careful. It's surprisingly simple to build a prototype electric car. All you really need is one talented art student. The rest can be cobbled together with some fiberglass and an old golf cart. People do this every day with "air taxis" - an art student, an old golf cart, and bam! investors are throwing billions of dollars at you despite the fact that your product obviously can't possibly work as advertised. A sleek modern design and a nice website are literally the only things investors look for.

Lucid obviously can't work as advertised. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that a company that has spent 14 years doing nothing but fundraising can't just miraculously produce a car out of nowhere that is superior to every car in the world in every possible way right off the bat from day 1. Their specs are laughable - they simply took every spec from every car on the market and claimed to exceed them all. Don't you think Nissan would have thought of that if it were so easy?

Remember that Tesla just baaaarely made it over the hump. And all they were doing was slapping Cocconi's powertrain into Lotuses for the first 9 years. How hard is that? Well, apparently pretty hard as it nearly depleted Elon's fortune. Then it took another 5 years of boutique cars plus an IPO before they could even start to produce a real product. Lucid is not going to simply skip all that and begin selling these awesome $70K cars tomorrow. They're going to keep doing what they do best - raising money.

You want to talk about BYD? Polestar? Tata? Ford? I'm all ears. Those companies have the resources to make it happen. But these jerks who exploit some poor art student in order to bilk investors out of billions of dollars by simply pretending to jump on the "electric bandwagon" make me sick.

Laugh at me now but remember to come back in 5 years after Nio has acquired Lucid out of bankruptcy and Stellantis has similarly absorbed Rivian.
I looked at Lucid to invest and decided strongly against it.
I disagree with you that what Lucid knows best is raising money. They got in big trouble for awhile in that regard LOL
Tesla had a much bigger hump than the others. They are the ones that proved the concept works and can work well but they did have the difficulties you mentioned and it was close to them failing more than once.
Rivian has some big backers in not only capitol but politics and media.
Heck just getting van orders from Amazon is probably enough to keep it alive as a small business. ( Not $80 billion)
While no one has gotten their production of pick ups out there yet I do believe Rivian will be the first one. whether it is this month, year end or early 2022
 

lotusland

Member
Jun 30, 2011
328
368
I think Tesla will be the only new automotive marque to survive the EV revolution. Porsche, Ford etc. will more than fill in the gaps around Tesla. These wanna-be companies like Rivian and Lucid will spend a lot of investor money and then ultimately disappear. Most car buyers will never even hear of them.
 
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uujjj2

Member
Aug 11, 2020
489
1,911
San Jose, CA
I think Tesla will be the only new automotive marque to survive the EV revolution. Porsche, Ford etc. will more than fill in the gaps around Tesla. These wanna-be companies like Rivian and Lucid will spend a lot of investor money and then ultimately disappear. Most car buyers will never even hear of them.
I'm on the other side of this argument. I predict Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are going to be the new big 3. Porsche, Ford, etc. many of them will survive but they'll lose market leadership to the new companies.
 

uujjj2

Member
Aug 11, 2020
489
1,911
San Jose, CA
It's about know-how. The engineers that know how to make electric cars are all here in California. Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are tapping into the same pool of engineering talent. There's a lot of automotive engineers in traditional auto in Michigan, Japan, and Germany, but all their experience is with ICE. Lots of ex-Tesla engineers go to Lucid and Rivian, while very few go to GM or Ford, meaning that know-how moves between Tesla and Lucid/Rivian but not between Tesla and GM/Ford. You can see the common thinking between Tesla/Lucid/Rivian (e.g. small cells, minimalist interiors, aero design) and the stark contrast with traditional automakers.
 

thesmokingman

Member
Jun 21, 2021
257
163
Socal
I'm on the other side of this argument. I predict Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian are going to be the new big 3. Porsche, Ford, etc. many of them will survive but they'll lose market leadership to the new companies.
That's generally my view too. The legacy brands are stuck in the past, still doing things the old way, parts bin and bean counting. That will slow them down whilke they are trying to catch up to the pure plays like Tesla, and eventually Lucid and Rivian, crosses fingers Fisker survives. Let's not ignore the crazy amount of Tesla people that are involved in Lucid and Rivian, thus the similarities.
 
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lotusland

Member
Jun 30, 2011
328
368
It's about know-how on this site, but in the larger world it is about brand. Lucid and Rivian have zero brand awareness. Few will make the second-largest purchase they will ever make from a brand that they don't know. It's taken Tesla eighteen years, with the most-visible CEO on the planet, with norm-shattering advances in technology, UI and even sales, to get to the awareness they are at right now. They are the "BandAid" of EVs. No new EV company will get even 1% of that attention, and unlike Tesla, they will have to pay for whatever attention they do get.

And I disagree about the big 3 not getting the technology. They can hire or buy whatever people or technology they think they need. The fact is that the technology behind EVs is not that complicated. Charging networks and raw material access are much larger issues than the technology itself IMO. It has never been easier to design a new car.

The only company I can see jumping into the game and succeeding is Apple.
 

Gauss Guzzler

Member
Dec 27, 2020
443
546
Thousand Oaks, California
Tesla did it right. They took full advantage of the fact that they had no existing customer base to offend with bold cost-cutting features like the buttonless dashboard or glass roof. And with no parts-bin to dig into, efficient design like the octovalve came naturally.

Traditional automakers are also (finally) doing it right. Slapping together a makeshift EV with parts-bin surplus is the cheapest and fastest way for them to enter the market and they have a huge dedicated customer base that wants a traditional design. Look at how many reviewers are tickled with glee when they press the big "Start Engine" button on the dashboard of whatever new EV they are testing. It doesn't matter that the cars underperform - sales are only limited by battery supplies, not customer demand.

So it makes sense for traditional automakers to transition slowly and cheaply. Yes, that means they'll always be a decade behind Tesla, but Tesla started a decade ago. Meanwhile startups like Rivian face every possible challenge concurrently - they can't beat Tesla's metrics, they don't have any existing customers, and they don't have access to any batteries anyway. Their business plan can't possibly be anything other than to milk the stock market until they get bought out.
 

Earl

Member
Jan 22, 2014
224
262
USA
Be careful. It's surprisingly simple to build a prototype electric car. All you really need is one talented art student. The rest can be cobbled together with some fiberglass and an old golf cart. People do this every day with "air taxis" - an art student, an old golf cart, and bam! investors are throwing billions of dollars at you despite the fact that your product obviously can't possibly work as advertised. A sleek modern design and a nice website are literally the only things investors look for.

Lucid obviously can't work as advertised. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realize that a company that has spent 14 years doing nothing but fundraising can't just miraculously produce a car out of nowhere that is superior to every car in the world in every possible way right off the bat from day 1. Their specs are laughable - they simply took every spec from every car on the market and claimed to exceed them all. Don't you think Nissan would have thought of that if it were so easy?

Remember that Tesla just baaaarely made it over the hump. And all they were doing was slapping Cocconi's powertrain into Lotuses for the first 9 years. How hard is that? Well, apparently pretty hard as it nearly depleted Elon's fortune. Then it took another 5 years of boutique cars plus an IPO before they could even start to produce a real product. Lucid is not going to simply skip all that and begin selling these awesome $70K cars tomorrow. They're going to keep doing what they do best - raising money.

You want to talk about BYD? Polestar? Tata? Ford? I'm all ears. Those companies have the resources to make it happen. But these jerks who exploit some poor art student in order to bilk investors out of billions of dollars by simply pretending to jump on the "electric bandwagon" make me sick.

Laugh at me now but remember to come back in 5 years after Nio has acquired Lucid out of bankruptcy and Stellantis has similarly absorbed Rivian.
This is a pretty fair assessment.

Keep in mind, however, that newcomers have 3 advantages that Tesla didn't have:
1) Tesla showed the risk-terrified financial community that EVs are viable. This opens up capital that Tesla had to fight to gain access to (with their Cocconi Lotus masterpiece)
2) There are a lot of good engineers who have left Tesla who are available. The counter-point with them, however, is that most left because they burned out making Tesla successful but left because of it. Newcomers won't get the productivity out of them that Tesla did.
3) Battery prices are much lower because Tesla is driving them down by creating a clear market for them. As the price-dominant component in an EV, this will make it a lot easier for a newcomer to be able to produce a price-competitive product without being locked into the small, but picky, boutique market that Tesla was initially.
Luckily, for them, Tesla is still leaving a few market spaces open into which wanna-be competitors can fit.
 

Brando

Active Member
Sep 27, 2016
2,968
2,052
Bainbridge Island, WA
The Rivian -
But they've never made anything - not a single product has ever been sold in the entire history of the company. And they've been in business since 2009! The "fundraising" business, that is.

Delivery Vans to Amazon - seems that hasn't started yet - seems Wall St. comes first. Jeff will cash in stock to pay for Vans ??
 

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