Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Jim Holder]

I may have to call this a dead cat if conditions are met next week.

1. The daily trend resistance at 163.5 has not been tested
2. On the 4H timeframe, a triple short signal was triggered. Every time this happen, even during 2020, the 4H PA had to stall or drop hard until it became oversold. As of this moment, its only neutral.
3. Even though I think good chances we run up next week on some news, ultimately that news wont be material to Q2 ER, which means bull trap.
4. Even if the vote is passed, it still wont affect Q2 ER.
5. Q1 miss was horrible, so any consolidation into end of June should be from above. Question is what price will be the magnet before P&D.
I like this path the most
View attachment 1048262

$185 has very supportive +GEX this coming week. Decent chance to see it if market cooperates, even your $188 level. Selling into the $188 (100-day) and expecting low $160's matches the 5/24 GEX profile: There's some gamma roll-off at $187.50, plus -GEX resistance starting at $190. Of course a break and hold over $188 changes things until the next stop ($199? $207? $215 200-Day?) before retracing back down.

The lack of heavy puts below can be concerning because sometimes that entices MM's to induce a contrarian move (lots of calls=down; lots of puts=up). Dunno if this is tinfoil theory or true.


Gonna be an interesting week or two.

Some selling pressure from MM between $177.50-$185, then MM join to $187.50'ish:

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1792003736677888418

And if not?

 

[dl003]

It is going to be very tricky. Wall Street talks among itself so institutional traders must know how the big boys vote. Therefore, I will be very careful not to go against the trend. If they know the vote is going to pass, theres nothing stopping them from pumping this all the way up to mid June. We all know one week is enough to sink TSLA if the power that be so chooses. I cant guarantee that I will call this correctly. Disclaimer.

 

[Jim Holder]

5-Day: 175.15
20-Day: 172.97
50-Day: 170.81
100-Day: 188.81
200-Day: 215.16

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1791917896991678640