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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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I may have to call this a dead cat if conditions are met next week.

1. The daily trend resistance at 163.5 has not been tested
2. On the 4H timeframe, a triple short signal was triggered. Every time this happen, even during 2020, the 4H PA had to stall or drop hard until it became oversold. As of this moment, its only neutral.
3. Even though I think good chances we run up next week on some news, ultimately that news wont be material to Q2 ER, which means bull trap.
4. Even if the vote is passed, it still wont affect Q2 ER.
5. Q1 miss was horrible, so any consolidation into end of June should be from above. Question is what price will be the magnet before P&D.
I like this path the most
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$185 has very supportive +GEX this coming week. Decent chance to see it if market cooperates, even your $188 level. Selling into the $188 (100-day) and expecting low $160's matches the 5/24 GEX profile: There's some gamma roll-off at $187.50, plus -GEX resistance starting at $190. Of course a break and hold over $188 changes things until the next stop ($199? $207? $215 200-Day?) before retracing back down.

The lack of heavy puts below can be concerning because sometimes that entices MM's to induce a contrarian move (lots of calls=down; lots of puts=up). Dunno if this is tinfoil theory or true.


Gonna be an interesting week or two.

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Some selling pressure from MM between $177.50-$185, then MM join to $187.50'ish:

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It is going to be very tricky. Wall Street talks among itself so institutional traders must know how the big boys vote. Therefore, I will be very careful not to go against the trend. If they know the vote is going to pass, theres nothing stopping them from pumping this all the way up to mid June. We all know one week is enough to sink TSLA if the power that be so chooses. I cant guarantee that I will call this correctly. Disclaimer.
 
No, more because I don't like the psychological impact when my portfolio drops 30% in a couple of months... so looking to get out of all my LEAPS, but will roll them forwards until I can, either with a stock rally or just selling weeklies to earn the money back

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what is your straddle success rate? i mean, how long on average before the losing side go OTM? 1 month? 2?

how often does this happen in your experience?
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it's not ludicrous

you're not going to believe this, but i rly ❤️ the strategy mentioned by the article (yes, i read the entire thing)

i spent the better part of the last 4(?) years trying this and that going around in circles, and came to a conclusion that the Wheel (see page 1) using DITM CC is the best that works for me - i nowadays sleep better and i no longer have to check the market every few minutes or so

i don't even need 4 monitors anymore so that i can "see" everything about the market and stock movement

just glancing on one TradingView chart at the iPad while on the kitchen is all i need

why? because the article is bang-on correct: with DITM CC, i can guess the direction wrong and still make money; all i need at setup is vanna + gamma + OI (in that order) and off i go

the downside is that
  • you make little money; if you are greedy or if you need a large fixed income, this strategy is not for you
  • this works for TSLA but the prems are too low (think CENTS) for reasonable R/R; SMCI (at 800) -c770 gives $1070 weekly income PER CONTRACT; who doesn't want 72% annualized ROC (in a perfect world)? If you use LEAPS instead of buying stock, you can even triple the ROC
of course, the biggest risk of CC (whether OTM or ATM or ITM or DITM) is stock suddenly drops but i have the perfect tested solution for that: Stock Repair Strategy - this works if you manage the drop early and you are not too far OTM yet

at the very extreme worst-case scenario, wait until the stock recovers before selling again; the only way you lose capital on DITM CC is if stock goes to 0 (Elon went all-in out of control)

another thing i learned over the years (and especially nowadays) is: take profits when you see them, there is ALWAYS a round 2 opportunity coming. The round 2 doesn't have to be the same CC strategy again, next time it can be Straddle or Strangle or IC or CSP, etc
@Yoona How are you determining the strike for the DITM CC? MSTR seems to be in more of an uptrend based on TA and has higher IV boosting ROIC.
 
Well I sold the NVDA July $1000 @61,5 and I'm working on the AVGO $1560 July for $48.50 but it did t clear. I'm fine with either going they are in TAA and up 1000% at this point.

Trying to sell july MU @140 FOR $7.5

Willing to sell AMD for July @190 for $5 or 185 for 8. That's another 10+ bagger at this point.

Haven't figured out TSM or ASML yet

At this point I need to reduce position size but I've been selling calls hard for 2 years now
@tivoboy What’s your best guess for NVDA price action pre and post earnings?