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  1. mkaresh

    2016.5 Model S 75 white/ black in DC area, 22k miles, $40,000

    The tires are the same Goodyears that were originally on the car. They were replaced a little sooner than they would have been otherwise because my elderly father clipped a curb.
  2. mkaresh

    2016.5 Model S 75 white/ black in DC area, 22k miles, $40,000

    Maybe a few hundred. Possibly less than 100. They were replaced at the end of June, and the car has only been driven sporadically with no long trips since.
  3. mkaresh

    2016.5 Model S 75 white/ black in DC area, 22k miles, $40,000

    Price is firm. This is my lowest price. A 2016.5--produced soon after the design was updated. These updated cars are more reliable than earlier Teslas. This particular car has never required any repairs. I'd consider the condition as "very good" rather than "excellent" because of curb rash on...
  4. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    We've stopped for nearly all cars, with the final survey for them last July. I'd start it up again if a suitable partner or acquirer came forward. It became too much for me to manage myself--especially some stuff beyond the survey itself. I did conduct a January survey for Teslas and some other...
  5. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    I posted our latest results for the Model S in that forum here. Definitely not up to Toyota / Lexus, but the 2016.5-2017 is close to the average car of that age. The earlier ones aren't close.
  6. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    We conducted a special survey that included the Teslas in January, covering owner experiences through the end of 2018. The 2016 Model X remained unreliable, if much less so than early on in its run, with a score of 77. We do not have enough owners signed up for more recent model years. In...
  7. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    We conducted a special survey that included the Teslas in January, covering owner experiences through the end of 2018. Tesla Model Ss through the 2016 continue to require repairs two to three times as often as the average car, with stats ranging from 60 (for the older, out of warranty cars) to...
  8. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    We conducted a special survey that included the Teslas in January, covering owner experiences through the end of 2018. When data from the second half of 2018 are added, the 2017-2018 Model 3 improved from a calculated stat of 111 repair trips per 100 cars per year to 88. The latter is still...
  9. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    Now up to 16. Minimum sample size is 25. How soon can we get there, and beyond?
  10. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    Sorry that I haven't updated these recently. The Model X has been improving. Our latest stats cover the year ending December 31, 2017. In terms of repair trips per 100 cars the model X improved from about 150 during 2016 to 81 during 2017. Still high, but not super-high. Additional participants...
  11. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    Sorry I haven't updated these stats recently. The latest stats, which cover through the end of 2017 are here. In terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year (lower is better): 2016.5-2017: 63, high 2016 Model S: 33, somewhat high, but the best yet seen for a Model S, very small sample size...
  12. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    With the next round about the begin, eleven Model 3s are signed up. A good start, but more will be needed to provide stats. To help make this happen: www.truedelta.com/join
  13. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    While some forms of bias can be expected to even out across all makes and models, if you expect this to happen all on its own you'd better have very large sample sizes. It's best to try to reduce the bias in the first place, which we do. It's also possible to have a survey process that's so...
  14. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    Ten Model 3s signed up so far. A good start, given how few have been delivered so far, but more is always better, and I'd like to have 40+.
  15. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    That is what happens with the typical online survey. This survey is designed much differently. As mentioned in my post, we do not count any problem that first appeared before someone signed up to participate in the survey. Instead, people respond whether or not they've had a repair each quarter...
  16. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model 3 -- structured quarterly survey

    Since 2005 I've been conducting a car reliability survey designed to provide up-to-date, objective stats. The survey is quarterly, for frequent updates. It asks that all repairs be reported, but excludes any problems that first appeared before someone joined, to minimize bias. We also don't...
  17. mkaresh

    Nothing very special about 0-60 times?

    Could be limited by the inverter and/or motor. Not necessarily artificial. A smaller motor costs less, and would make sense when trying to sell a car for $35,000. Virtually no one can use a quicker car in daily driving. Even 5.6 seconds to 60 is very quick. On the passing tests: in cars with a...
  18. mkaresh

    Model 3 vs. Bolt price and features; questions about Model 3 features

    I've entered pricing and features into TrueDelta's configurator to the extent they've either been released or can be inferred from Model S content to see how these compare to other cars. Initial conclusion: after adjusting for feature differences the Model 3 undercuts the Bolt EV by 1-2k: 2017...
  19. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    Sorry, I thought I'd already posted this. We have an initial stat for the Model X, based on owner experiences through September 30, 2016. In terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year (lower is better): 2016 Model X: 154, very high, small sample size With additional participants, we could...
  20. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    We've updated our reliability stats for the Model S to include owner experiences through September 30, 2016. In terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year (lower is better): 2016 Model S: 55, high, very small sample size 2015 Model S: 49, high 2014 Model S: 101, high, small sample size 2013...
  21. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    We will have an initial stat late next month, but the sample size would be small. Put another way, additional participants would be very helpful.
  22. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    We'll have updated stats again next month. Looking at the number of survey responses, additional participants with the 2014, 2016, and 2016.5 (updated styling) would be especially helpful. www.truedelta.com/join
  23. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    Thanks for putting a good word in, dhanson! I just posted our latest stats for the Model S in that forum. As mentioned in that post, my own father recently bought a post-update Model S, and has been loving it. We should have an initial stat for the Model X with the next update, which we'll...
  24. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    My own father is now one of you. He bought a post-update Model S in June, and has been loving it. Any post-update cars should be enrolled as 2016.5s, to distinguish them from earlier 2016s. Hopefully we'll soon have enough of these to include them in the survey. We've updated our reliability...
  25. mkaresh

    So I went to convert my Model X order to a Model S..but then

    What do you like better about the Model S? Handling? My father recently ordered a Model S. Since it's just the two of them, no clear need for the extra capacity of the X. But I'd personally love to see them offer the S with a panoramic windshield.
  26. mkaresh

    How far will Tesla go to fix alignment issues (doors, chrome trim, etc.)

    At established auto makers the body engineers usually have to approve a design, so they won't end up with a body they can't build well. The designers come to see the engineers as "can't do" people who won't let them have what they really want. I do wonder who Tesla hired for body engineering...
  27. mkaresh

    Laminated glass windshield not required

    I think windshields must be laminated by federal law.
  28. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    We've updated our reliability stats for the Model S to include owner experiences through March 31, 2016, making them nearly a year ahead of other sources. Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year: 2015 Model S: 61, high 2014 Model S: 55, high, small sample size 2013...
  29. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    Eight Model X's signed up so far. Not enough, but a good start. At this rate we'll likely have initial stats in November, but possibly in August. The more owners participate, the more precise these will be. www.truedelta.com/join
  30. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    You're right about most such surveys. But there is no other car reliability survey like this one. It's ongoing, not a one-time thing. This way we can and do exclude problems that first appeared before members joined. For some models we have dozens of "no repair" responses and no repair...
  31. mkaresh

    "Consumer Reports" reports Bugs

    Our process actually guards against this source of distortion more than other car reliability surveys. It's ongoing, not just a one-time retrospective survey. Problems that appeared before someone joins are not included in the count. The participation rate of Tesla owners who did join, many...
  32. mkaresh

    "Consumer Reports" reports Bugs

    This is not correct. Consumer Reports reported the worst reliability score for the 2015. It gets a full black dot while the 2014s still get an "about average" and the 2013s get a half-black dot. The 2012s also have a full black dot, but there are very few 2012s. This is due to a fundamental...
  33. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    We're affiliated with no car manufacturers. We're an independent site. My wife and I do all of the work to develop and operate it. We sell the data to no one unless you count paid individual subscribers to the site. Over 99 percent of our members are non-paid, as we offer a choice between...
  34. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    I just discovered that I'd entered 2017 as the first model year for the Model X, so anyone who tried to enroll a 2016 would not have been able to. This has now been fixed. I've also added Model X pricing, features, and specs to our database, so the Model X can be configured and thoroughly...
  35. mkaresh

    Ford Pays a lot for a Model X to Rip Apart

    I saw this vehicle in a Detroit suburb last week. Saw a manufacturer's tag on it, and asked the driver if he was with Tesla. "No, Ford."
  36. mkaresh

    "Consumer Reports" reports Bugs

    Many people, even some seasoned journalists, are reading the CR release as based on data they've collected, when as you note it's based on reading forums. I operate a car reliability survey (at truedelta.com) in which quite a few members of this forum participate (for the Model S). I've been...
  37. mkaresh

    Crunch! Falcon Wing Doors fail to sense obstacle

    It would be tremendously expensive to redesign the Model X without these doors, and probably couldn't be done in less than two years. It would not be possible to retrofit existing cars with doors of a different design. Much more likely: better sensors and/or better software. And maybe rubber...
  38. mkaresh

    Reliability stats for the Model X -- structured quarterly survey

    For the past ten years I've been conducting a car reliability survey designed to provide up-to-date, objective stats. The survey is quarterly, for frequent updates. It asks that all repairs be reported, but excludes any problems that first appeared before someone joined, to minimize bias. We...
  39. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    This is my take as well, though one owner suggested to me that some people might not be reporting Ranger visits "repair trips," since their car did not go anywhere. To be clear, Ranger visits should be reported. If anyone misunderstood this, and needs to report an earlier visit, please let me...
  40. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    We've updated our reliability stats for the Model S to include owner experiences through the end of 2015, about eight months ahead of other sources. In terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year--lower is better: 2015 Model S: 56, high 2014 Model S: 52, moderate, small sample size 2013 Model...
  41. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    One important clarification. One member recently suggested that some Model S owners have not reported repairs performed by Rangers because the survey asks if the "car has returned from a repair trip." It's simply not practical to word this question so it's literally correct for every possible...
  42. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    The next round of the survey begins in a few days. As always, additional participants would be helpful (especially those with 2014s or the latest revision). Join TrueDelta
  43. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    The graph I posted earlier definitely suggests improvement. One concern I have is that they'll get distracted by the Model X and then the Model 3, and won't be able to make improving quality with the Model S a high priority. It's very difficult to achieve the low repair frequency of the average...
  44. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    Most of these cars are in North America, but some are in Europe. There seems little reason to separate them since nearly all of the parts are the same, and they're assembled in the same factory.
  45. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    We've updated our reliability stats for the Model S to include owner experiences through September 30, 2015. Repair frequencies, in terms of repair trips per 100 cars per year: 2015 Model S: 72, high (includes all cars after the fall 2014 changes) 2014 Model S: 62, high, very small sample size...
  46. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    As has been discussed elsewhere on this forum, Consumer Reports has now downgraded their reliability rating for the Model S and no longer recommends the car. I believe the factors discussed in my previous post are to blame rather than any actual decline in the cars' reliability. Owners have...
  47. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    First off, it's necessary to separate CR's road test scores from their reliability survey ratings. The former, not the latter, are what they have been so positive about. They tend to de-emphasize reliability when talking about the Model S. Second, their current ratings are based on a survey...
  48. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    Our reliability stats for the Model S now cover the year ending June 30, 2015. Others are over a year behind, and so report how these cars were doing when a year younger. Repair trips per 100 cars: 2015 Model S: 88, high 2014 Model S: 102, high, small sample size -- continue to especially...
  49. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    Updated stats later this month. We continue especially need more cars for the 2014 and up. If a car was produced after a significant mid-year change, enter it as a half-year car. The early Ds are 2014.5s. The rear-drive 70 and 90s will be 2015.5s--have people started taking delivery of these...
  50. mkaresh

    TrueDelta.com

    Sorry that it wasn't easier to find. We recently had to rush a redesign to better include mobile, and now that it's complete we need to go back and finesse some things. In general, navigation menus are now concentrated just below the header. - - - Updated - - - Our reliability stats for the...