@schonelucht @EinSV @esk8mw , thank you all for your input.
A few responses on your comments
1. I sure don't know how much discounts they would get from the suppliers of the glider. But I think this is the most sensitive parameter in my spreadsheet (dropping this to 7.5% results in $0.02 non-GAAP EPS in my spreadsheet with everything else being the same). Hope they can do as best as they can.
2. I am not modeling where the discount will go - GM or SG&A. Not very interested in this detail as I am trying to figure the EPS although I think it would go to SG&A.
3. The discount I give are for the base only, options not discounted. So it's not like a fully optioned SP90D selling for over 130k will be discounted to 91k, more like 103k (this comes much closer to the numbers provided by you guys).
4. I shared this with some other friends outside TMC and they all said my customer uptake rate of discounted cars are too high. The reason I went for these high uptake rate is Tesla's own website is showing customers cheaper, earlier delivery cars of similar choice of options even before the customer goes into the actual order page. I think what happened was, all showroom cars and some test drive cars were sold earlier. Tesla built replacements for them but did not hide these from the inventory list so many (I would think all) of these were sold very quickly, maybe even before hitting the stores. With 200+ stores and 2 cars each. I think there would be 800-1000 cars sold this way. And there are some more from other channels I think. This practice should have stopped too. As I was updating my spreadsheet I was browsing Tesla's website and cannot find any inventory cars suggested before ordering that have lower price.
5. One thing I didn't include previously was the referral discount. This would be 12M in net profit if 50% of the buyers had one. I'm not sure how prevelant this is, and actually I don't know how this would be accounted in the financial statements to be honest. But want to say here to let anyone wants to know.
6. In any case, I changed the numbers of discount % and uptake numbers based on
@esk8mw 's numbers (translated them to discount on base price, so S75 still 10%, this translates to roughly 8% on all-in price with options). I also assumed no X90D was sold at a discount. And here are the results with different % of savings from glider
a. 10% savings from glider
non-GAAP EPS $0.69
GAAP (98% of non-GAAP revenue) EPS $0.36
GAAP (80% of non-GAAP revenue) EPS $-0.42
b. 7.5% savings from glider
non-GAAP EPS $0.47
GAAP (98% of non-GAAP revenue) EPS $0.14
GAAP (80% of non-GAAP revenue) EPS $-0.60
c. 5% savings from glider
non-GAAP EPS $0.25
GAAP (98% of non-GAAP revenue) EPS $-0.07
GAAP (80% of non-GAAP revenue) EPS $-0.77